Canada West Foundation

10/13/2026

"That will cause costs, additional costs to creep into our transportation element of our economy, and there’s just no getting around that.”

Jeffrey J. McCaig, chairman of Trimac Transportation Group, explains how thickened borders and new regulatory systems in an independent Alberta could affect transportation costs.

“It’s just going to be more costly, and in a time when one of the issues that we hear a lot about lately is affordability and our cost of living. And so, it will not help in that regard, for sure,” McCaig said.

Listen to the full conversation here: https://youtu.be/euIvh92U4Gw?si=tmLADBUUheVL8SP1

Read McCaig’s chapter in the Alberta in Confederation report (Page 110), which examines the practical implications of separation for businesses, transportation networks, investment and supply chains.https://cwf.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Alberta-in-Confederation-Report.pdf =110

10/13/2026

“I’m opposed to separation, but I’m also opposed to status quo.”

Dr. Ted Morton, a former Alberta cabinet minister and professor emeritus at the University of Calgary, explains why separation and the status quo are both risky for Alberta.

“The status quo is just as risky as leaving. Everybody else documents why separation would be very complicated, very time consuming and very expensive, and I agree with that,” Morton said.

“But I’m saying the status quo has risk as well.”

Listen to the full conversation: https://youtu.be/euIvh92U4Gw?si=tmLADBUUheVL8SP1

Read Morton’s chapter in the Alberta in Confederation report (Page 14), which examines Alberta’s constitutional position within Confederation and how it has evolved since the era of Peter Lougheed:https://cwf.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Alberta-in-Confederation-Report.pdf =14

10/08/2026

“Strong alone. Stronger together. That is the Canada we want and need,” suggests Gary G. Mar in a recent Calgary Herald op-ed.

Ahead of the Oct. 19 Alberta referendum that asks Albertans to vote on whether they want to remain part of Canada, Mar reiterates the position that Alberta, and every other province and territory, can be strong without Canada being weak.

Acknowledging that the status quo isn’t working and change is needed to satisfy Alberta grievances, Mar says provinces going their own way won’t solve the problem. Instead, co-operative federalism offers a united path forward while also honouring the unique histories, traditions, identities, ambitions and concerns each province and territory brings to the table.

As Mar notes: “Alberta needs Canada, but Canada needs Alberta every bit as much.”

Read the full op-ed:

Mar:

10/06/2026

With the October 19 referendum approaching, Albertans are weighing questions that will shape the province's future and Canada's.

Canada West Foundation convened four leading experts to discuss what separation could mean for pensions, trade, currency and more.

Moderated by President and CEO Gary G. Mar, the conversation brought together diverse perspectives on one of the most consequential issues facing Alberta today.

Watch the full conversation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=euIvh92U4Gw

09/28/2026

Ahead of Alberta's October 19 referendum vote, the Canada West Foundation convened a robust discussion on the economic, trade and constitutional realities of Alberta's place within Confederation.

Drawing on perspectives on economics, trade policy, business, federalism and public policy, contributors to Alberta in Confederation explored key questions surrounding Alberta separation and its potential implications.

The discussion, moderated by Canada West Foundation President and CEO Gary G. Mar, was evidence-based, diverse in perspective and reflective of the range of views represented in the research initiative.

Thank you to our contributors and attendees for a thoughtful and wide-ranging discussion, including:

🔵 Dr. Greg Anderson, Trade policy expert and former U.S. Trade Representative staff

🔵 Dr. Paul Boothe, Economist and former federal and provincial deputy minister

🔵 Dr. Audrey Doerr, Political scientist and former public servant specializing in Indigenous policy and Canadian federalism

🔵 Adam Legge, President of the Business Council of Alberta

🔵 Jeffrey J. McCaig, Chairman of Trimac Transportation Group

🔵 Dr. Ted Morton, Former Alberta cabinet minister and professor emeritus at the University of Calgary

Visit our website to learn more about Alberta in Confederation: https://cwf.ca/research/publications/report-alberta-in-confederation/

09/25/2026

Alberta's future is often discussed in terms of change. An equally important question is what could be lost if existing sources of economic certainty are disrupted.

As Adam Legge, president of the Business Council of Alberta, writes in Alberta in Confederation, the case for remaining in Canada is not a defence of Ottawa, it’s rather a case for protecting what Albertans have already built and the certainty needed to continue building Alberta’s future.

In Alberta's next chapter needs certainty, Legge considers what Alberta's businesses, households and communities gain from existing Canadian economic and trade frameworks, and what implications separation could have for that foundation.

“The question is not whether Alberta deserves better. Obviously, it does,” Legge writes. “The question is whether the best way to build that better future is to walk away from this foundation of all that is certain or to continue to be leaders within Canada and achieve more from the country it helped build.”

Read: Alberta’s next chapter needs certainty (page 122):https://cwf.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Alberta-in-Confederation-Report.pdf =122

Alberta in Confederation is a non-partisan research initiative examining the economic, trade and constitutional realities of Alberta separation from Canada ahead of the October 19 provincial referendum.

Visit our website to learn more about Alberta in Confederation: https://cwf.ca/research/publications/report-alberta-in-confederation/

09/23/2026

Alberta-based companies could face very real corporate and supply-chain consequences should the province separate from Canada, says Jeffrey J. McCaig, chairman of Trimac Transportation Group. In particular, industrial, transportation, energy and financial services businesses would likely feel the impact swiftly and deeply.

Among other things, companies in these industries could potentially face operational risks, increased costs and service disruptions while a sovereign Alberta negotiated issues such as border procedures, safety compliance, regulatory measures, trade agreements, licensing and more.

"From a corporate operating perspective, Alberta separation would function as a supply chain redesign exercise rather than a discrete shock. The largest costs would likely arrive as added transaction costs, duplicated regulatory systems, higher inventory requirements, delayed capital investment and reduced certainty for customers, suppliers, lenders and employees," says McCaig. "This echoes the broad pattern observed in the United Kingdom’s post-Brexit experience with the European Union."

For more on the implications of Alberta secession on local businesses, read Practical Friction: Consequences of Alberta separation for industrial and transportation businesses athttps://cwf.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Alberta-in-Confederation-Report.pdf =110

Alberta in Confederation is a non-partisan research initiative examining the economic, trade and constitutional realities of Alberta's separation from Canada ahead of the October 19 provincial referendum.

Visit our website to learn more about Alberta in Confederation: https://cwf.ca/research/publications/report-alberta-in-confederation/

09/22/2026

Interprovincial migration has long played a vital role in the prosperity of Alberta's energy sector. Without high levels of outside labourers bolstering the local workforce, there could be a deep impact on the expansion and growth of this key industry.

According to Dr. Herb Emery, economist and Vaughan Chair in Regional Economics at the University of New Brunswick, Alberta post-secession plans lean heavily on oil exports, meaning more workers will be needed to fill the workforce demand. But will people be willing to cross the border from Canada to a sovereign Alberta if it's a foreign nation?

"With Alberta as a province of Canada participating in national programs, such as employment insurance (EI), pensions and tax obligations, income security remains seamless," writes Emery. "If Alberta were to enact separate programs post-secession that are not integrated, or at least aligned, with programs in the rest of Canada, prospective migrants might treat relocation as more costly, or at least riskier. As a result, fewer workers might make the move, even if Alberta offers a higher average income than the rest of Canada."

So, what would this mean for a fledgling separate Alberta? Emery puts it in perspective.

"Absent interprovincial commuters, it is uncertain whether Alberta can attract the large number of skilled workers to meet the short-run, transitory oil sands labour demand to expand energy output. If investors and producers cannot find workers with the skills they need, there is a high risk that the investment to grow the energy sector will not happen. This would put much of the secession project’s promised gains at risk."

For the full picture, read Alberta’s Workforce Reality: Who will fill the jobs if separation turns Canadians into foreign workers? (page 102) athttps://cwf.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Alberta-in-Confederation-Report.pdf =102

Alberta in Confederation is a non-partisan research initiative examining the economic, trade and constitutional realities of Alberta's separation from Canada ahead of the October 19 provincial referendum.

Visit our website to learn more about Alberta in Confederation: https://cwf.ca/research/publications/report-alberta-in-confederation/

09/21/2026

"Albertans need to think carefully about leaving Canada: the costs will be high," says Lennie Kaplan, a former senior manager with Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, in his contribution to Alberta in Confederation.

In the absence of a comprehensive analysis of the economic and fiscal costs of Alberta's separation from Canada, Kaplan performed a preliminary examination into what the numbers might look like should the province secede.

"Alberta independence could result in setup costs of over $200 billion and ongoing costs of over $50 billion annually. Moreover, it could very well shrink Alberta’s economy, cause jobs to be lost, raise interest rates and deter investment. A long and drawn-out negotiation between Alberta and Ottawa also appears likely, if a binding referendum to separate was to succeed," Kaplan explains.

This is just a glimpse into Kaplan's findings. For a detailed overview of his analysis and what Albertans can expect if they vote to separate, read Evaluating the economic and fiscal impacts of Alberta’s separation from Canada (page 86):https://cwf.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Alberta-in-Confederation-Report.pdf =86

Alberta in Confederation is a non-partisan research initiative examining the economic, trade and constitutional realities of Alberta's separation from Canada ahead of the October 19 provincial referendum.

Visit our website to learn more about Alberta in Confederation: https://cwf.ca/research/publications/report-alberta-in-confederation/

09/18/2026

As Albertans look for answers in the lead-up to the October 19 provincial referendum, Quebec’s referendum debates can provide some insights into the likely fiscal and economic issues the province would face in the event of separation.

Dr. Paul Boothe, an economist, former deputy minister and Officer of the Order of Canada, addresses several key economic questions in his contribution to the Alberta in Confederation report, including:

🔢How would government liabilities and assets, especially pensions, be divided?
🏨What would happen to the portability of social programs?
💰What choices would a separate Alberta face regarding currency and monetary policy?

“… however it is calculated, the assumption of its share of Canada’s gross federal debt by a separate Alberta would be an expensive and risky proposition,” Boothe writes.

“Rather than a benefit to the population, the costs of separation would manifest themselves both in terms of higher interest costs and reduced ability to borrow in international markets.”

Read Boothe’s piece, Hard Realities: Lessons from the Quebec referendum debates (page 76):https://cwf.ca/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Alberta-in-Confederation-Report.pdf =76

Alberta in Confederation is a non-partisan research initiative from the Canada West Foundation examining the economic, trade and constitutional realities of Alberta's separation from Canada ahead of the October 19 provincial referendum.

Visit our website to learn more about Alberta in Confederation: https://cwf.ca/research/publications/report-alberta-in-confederation/