Crown Weather Services, Sturbridge, MA (2026)

10/09/2026

Posted Late Friday Morning 10/9/2026: Isaias is now a MAJOR hurricane with 120 mph maximum winds. It is possible that the hurricane could strengthen a little more over the next few hours before it begins to weaken just before landfall.

WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE: My advice to you for those of you across the western Florida Panhandle, especially Pensacola and Destin, is to be ready for a major hurricane landfall tonight.

Isaias has steadily strengthened throughout last night and into this morning and reconnaissance aircraft are now finding a 120 mph hurricane. The reason for this burst in strength is due to the hurricane moving over some extremely warm Gulf waters & a wind shear environment that’s just favorable enough to promote strengthening.

EXPECTED LANDFALL: It is fully expected that Isaias will make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle probably between about 8 pm and midnight CDT tonight. My thinking is that the hurricane will make landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Destin.

The big question is what strength will Isaias make landfall as. As I’ve mentioned several times previously, strong wind shear should lead to some weakening of the hurricane just as its making landfall. That being said, this is no longer a sure thing & because of this, I would fully prepare to be impacted by a major hurricane with 115-125 mph winds across the western Florida Panhandle tonight. The area that looks to see the worst conditions will be from about Gulf Shores and Pensacola eastward to about Panama City. I do think that areas around Pensacola and Destin will see the full brunt of this hurricane.

STORM SURGE: The storm surge that’s expected from Isaias is now forecast to be upwards of 9 feet along the western Florida Panhandle and upwards of 6 to 8 feet of storm surge along the central and eastern Florida Panhandle & across the Big Bend area of Florida. Further west, 5 to 8 feet of storm surge looks likely across southern Alabama.

TORNADO THREAT: I still think that tornadoes could be a big time threat when Isaias makes landfall tonight. There is going to be very strong amounts of low-level wind shear occurring on the eastern side of the hurricane. Because of this, tornadoes, some of them EF-2 to EF-3 in strength, will be a definite threat on Friday night into Saturday morning across southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. This is particularly worrisome as nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous so those of you across southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle need to have a way to receive Tornado Warnings.

During Saturday, there is expected to be a potential substantial tornado threat across southern and central Georgia into southern and central South Carolina. There’s expected to still be strong amounts of low-level wind shear available & because of this, tornadoes will be a definite threat.

I am frequently updating our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers about Hurricane Isaias. These include at least twice a day email updates that are being sent to all subscribers, as well as a dedicated webpage on all things Hurricane Isaias. It also includes answering any and all questions subscribers have on how Hurricane Isaias will affect them.

Do you want to stay updated on this system, including being able to have questions you have answered right away? BECOME A SUBSCRIBER!!! The link to learn more and to subscribe to Crown Weather PLUS can be found in the first comment of this post. Your subscriptions and support are crucial to keeping us in business.

10/08/2026

Posted Midday Thursday 10/8/2026: Hurricane Isaias is steadily strengthening & is expected to peak at about a 100-110 mph hurricane by Friday morning. Some weakening of the hurricane is then possible during Friday afternoon and Friday night.

This means that I expect that Isaias should make landfall somewhere between Mobile and Pensacola around midnight on Friday night as a 85-100 mph hurricane.

FORECAST IMPACTS:
- WIND: Hurricane force winds are expected to occur across southern Alabama and across the western Florida Panhandle throughout Friday night. Tropical storm force winds look like they will affect areas of the Florida Panhandle as far east as Apalachicola and possibly the Big Bend area of northwest Florida during Friday night.

It should be noted that some very gusty winds are expected to extend well inland into central Alabama, central Mississippi and northern Georgia during the day on Saturday. This is due to the fact that Isaias is going to be a fast moving hurricane that’ll have little time to weaken. Downed trees and widespread power outages are likely across a large area of central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and northern and western Georgia during this weekend.

- STORM SURGE: A storm surge of up to at least 6-8 feet continues to be expected across areas near and east of where the hurricane makes landfall. This means that storm surge related flooding looks likely across southern Alabama and across the entire Florida Panhandle during Friday, Friday night and Saturday morning. The worst of the storm surge flooding looks to occur from about Mobile Bay eastward to the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola Beach and Panama City Beach.

- TORNADOES: I still think that tornadoes could be a big time threat when Isaias makes landfall on Friday night. There is going to be very strong amounts of low-level wind shear occurring on the eastern side of the hurricane. Because of this, tornadoes, some of them EF-2 to EF-3 in strength, will be a definite threat on Friday night into Saturday morning across southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. This is particularly worrisome as nighttime tornadoes are especially dangerous so those of you across southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle need to have a way to receive Tornado Warnings.

FINALLY - I continue to frequently update our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers about Hurricane Isaias. These include at least twice a day email updates that are being sent to all subscribers, as well as a dedicated webpage on all things Tropical Storm Isaias. It also includes answering any and all questions subscribers have on how Hurricane Isaias will affect them.

Do you want to stay updated on this system, including being able to have questions you have answered right away? BECOME A SUBSCRIBER!!! The link to learn more and to subscribe to Crown Weather PLUS can be found in the first comment of this post. Your subscriptions and support are crucial to keeping us in business.

10/08/2026

Posted Wednesday Evening 10/7/2026: Isias WILL become a hurricane tonight or at the latest on Thursday morning & will make landfall in southern Alabama & the Florida Panhandle as a hurricane on Friday night.

I do think that Isaias will probably peak at about a 90 to 100 mph hurricane by Thursday night and then weaken some on Friday as it approaches the coastline of southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle and encounters some very strong southwesterly wind shear.

Because of this, my thinking is for the storm to come ashore across southern Alabama or the western Florida Panhandle around midnight or so Friday night as a 80-95 mph hurricane.

FORECAST IMPACTS: A hurricane is fully expected to make landfall across southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle on Friday night. I strongly urge everyone across southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to keep checking back often for the latest updates.

This means that hurricane force winds will likely occur across southern Alabama and across the western Florida Panhandle during Friday night. Tropical storm force winds look like they will affect areas of the Florida Panhandle as far east as Apalachicola and possibly the Big Bend area of northwest Florida.

A storm surge of up to at least 5-8 feet looks likely along and to the east of where Isaias makes landfall. This means that storm surge related flooding looks likely across southern Alabama and across the entire Florida Panhandle during Friday, Friday night and Saturday morning.

Heavy rain with the threat for flooding is also expected from Isaias across southern Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle. This is going to be a fast-moving storm & because of this, excessive amounts of rain are not expected. Still though, rain totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected from late this week into this weekend across southern and western Alabama and across the Florida Panhandle.

Also, tornadoes could be a big time threat when Isaias makes landfall. There is going to be strong amounts of wind shear occurring on the eastern side of the storm & because of this, tornadoes will be a definite threat across the Florida Panhandle and across southern Alabama on Friday night and Saturday.

FINALLY - I am frequently updating our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers about Tropical Storm Isaias. These include at least twice a day email updates that are being sent to all subscribers, as well as a dedicated webpage on all things Tropical Storm Isaias.

Do you want to stay updated on this system? BECOME A SUBSCRIBER!!! The link to learn more and to subscribe to Crown Weather PLUS can be found in the first comment of this post. Your subscriptions and support are crucial to keeping us in business.

10/06/2026

Posted Tuesday Evening 10/6/2026: Tropical Depression #9 has formed over the southwestern Gulf & is likely to strengthen quickly over the next few days. It's very possible that it will be a hurricane when it makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast later Friday into Saturday.

MY THINKING AS OF RIGHT NOW is for this system to make landfall somewhere along the Alabama or western Florida Panhandle coast on Friday evening as a 80 to 95 mph hurricane.

FOR THOSE OF YOU ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE - While the exact details on how this system will impact the northern Gulf coast still need to be figured out, I think there is the increasing likelihood for a hurricane to come ashore by Friday evening. I urge everyone from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle to check back often for the latest updates.

I do still think that the biggest hazard from this system will probably be heavy rain and the threat for flooding along the northern Gulf coast from southern Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely, especially during later this week into the holiday weekend. Isolated rain totals of 10 inches or more are a possibility over the western Florida Panhandle.

The next potential hazard from this system will be storm surge, as well as the likelihood of tropical storm to hurricane force winds across the central and eastern Gulf coast. The higher coastal flood and wind threats from this system would potentially occur on the eastern side of it. This means that areas from southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to the west coast of Florida may end up seeing the worst of the weather from this system, even if it’s weakening at landfall. This could include a storm surge of up to 6 feet and winds that gust up to over 60 mph at times during Friday into Saturday. Wind gusts in the hurricane force range could occur across southern Alabama and across the western and central Florida Panhandle during Friday afternoon into Friday night.

There will very likely be the potential for tornadoes on Friday into Saturday across areas to the east of where this system makes landfall. This means that possibly the Panhandle of Florida and parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula may have a potential for tornadoes on Friday into Saturday.

FINALLY - I am frequently updating our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers about Tropical Depression #9 & the likelihood it'll become a tropical storm and probably even a hurricane in the Gulf.

Do you want to stay updated on this system? BECOME A SUBSCRIBER!!! The link to learn more and to subscribe to Crown Weather PLUS can be found in the first comment of this post. Your subscriptions and support are crucial to keeping us in business.

10/06/2026

Posted Tuesday Afternoon 10/6/2026: It is fully expected that Invest 92-L, which is located over the southwestern Gulf, will become a tropical storm as soon as late Wednesday or Thursday. It is then possible that this system could become a hurricane by Friday just before it heads for the northern Gulf coast.

One big question with Invest 92-L is how fast will it be moving when it's moving towards the northern Gulf coast. A faster moving system would likely be steered more towards the northeast and head for southern Alabama or the Florida Panhandle. Also, a faster moving system would end up probably making landfall as a upper-end tropical storm or even a low-end hurricane on Friday night. Meanwhile, a slower moving system would end up being steered more towards the north and head for southern Louisiana or southern Mississippi. Also, a slower moving system would be significantly impacted by some very strong wind shear over the northern Gulf & would probably come in as a very weak tropical storm, at most.

MY THOUGHTS ARE THAT given that Invest 92-L seems to be already organizing fairly quickly, I think the idea of it heading quickly towards southern Alabama or the Florida Panhandle seems most possible right now. While I think this system may end up becoming a hurricane at some point on Friday, I do think it may end up weakening a bit just before landfall leading it to be a tropical storm when it comes ashore on the Florida Panhandle or across southern Alabama.

FOR THOSE OF YOU ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE - While the exact details on how this system will impact the northern Gulf coast still need to be figured out, I think there is the very real possibility for a moderate to strong tropical storm to come ashore by Friday night or Saturday morning. I urge everyone from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle to check back often for the latest updates.

I do think that the biggest hazard from this system will probably be heavy rain and the threat for flooding along the northern Gulf coast from southern Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely, especially during later this week into the holiday weekend. Isolated rain totals of 10 inches or more are a possibility over the western Florida Panhandle.

The next potential hazard from this system will be coastal flooding and the possibility for tropical storm force winds across a large part of the central and eastern Gulf coast. The higher coastal flood and wind threats from this system would potentially occur on the eastern side of it. This means that areas from southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle to the west coast of Florida may end up seeing the worst of the weather from this system, even if it’s weakening at landfall. This could include a storm surge of up to 6 feet and winds that gust up to at least 60 mph at times during Friday into Saturday.

Finally, there will very likely be the potential for tornadoes on Friday into Saturday across areas to the east of where this system makes landfall. This means that possibly the Panhandle of Florida and parts of the central and northern Florida Peninsula may have a potential for tornadoes on Friday into Saturday.

FINALLY - I am frequently updating our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers about Invest 92-L & the likelihood it'll become a tropical storm and maybe even a hurricane in the Gulf.

Do you want to stay updated on this system? BECOME A SUBSCRIBER!!! The link to learn more and to subscribe to Crown Weather PLUS can be found in the first comment of this post. Your subscriptions and support are crucial to keeping us in business.

10/04/2026

Posted Sunday Afternoon 10/4/2026: There has been an increasing chance that we are going to see some sort of tropical development over the southern Gulf by later this coming week. I am putting the chances for tropical development at about 50-60 percent or so.

Any system, whether it's tropical or sub-tropical, could head for the northern Gulf Coast next weekend as a large, very messy and very wet system.

The potential for southern Gulf tropical development will be something to definitely keep an eye on throughout this week and I will have all sorts of updates for our Crown Weather Plus subscribers.

At the minimum, I think that we’re probably looking at a large, messy and very wet system that brings quite a bit of rain to much of the northern Gulf Coast next weekend. It should be mentioned that if this system does come in as a tropical storm, then we’d be looking at gusty winds & very rough surf to accompany the very heavy rain.

Even before this potential tropical system heads towards the northern Gulf Coast, that frontal boundary is likely to bring quite a bit of rain this week along the immediate coast of the northern Gulf coast as well as across the northern and central Florida Peninsula It does appear that the heaviest of the rain with amounts of 3 to 6 inches looks to occur this week across the Florida Panhandle and across northern and central parts of the Florida Peninsula. So, the additional heavy rain that may occur with this potential tropical system next weekend could lead to flood issues along the northern Gulf Coast.

I am frequently updating our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers about the potential for tropical development in the southern Gulf later this week. Want to stay updated on this system? Become a subscriber!! The link to learn more and to subscribe to Crown Weather PLUS can be found in the first comment of this post. Your subscriptions and support keeps us in business.

09/07/2026

*** LABOR DAY WEEKEND SUBSCRIPTION SALE - SUBSCRIBE FOR ONE YEAR & GET AN EXTRA YEAR FOR FREE (2 FOR 1 DEAL) ***

We are running a Labor Day weekend subscription sale that ends tonight.

What is our subscription special? You can extend your subscription for one more year & in return; I will tack on an extra year for FREE!! Call it a 2 for 1 deal. Again, this subscription sale ends tonight, so take advantage of it now.

If you would like to take us up on this, just go to our subscribe page & select the 1 Year Subscription Option. Once I see that you have selected the 1 year subscription, I will automatically add the extra year to your Crown Weather account.

The link to subscribe is https://crownweather.com/cws-plus/ .

You taking us up on this 2 for 1 subscription deal will be a huge help for us in terms of finances. In return, you will be able to be subscribed for 2 years. I hope you will strongly consider subscribing to Crown Weather PLUS today.

09/04/2026

*** A NON-HYPE VERSION OF WHAT THIS WINTER IS GOING TO BE LIKE WITH THE VERY STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS ***

Since things are so quiet in the tropics, my wife, Meg, wanted me to send out a write up that addresses the extreme hype surrounding the very strong El Nino conditions without any context or explanation. Instead, I want to give you a non-hype and down to earth explanation of what to expect this winter.

- WHAT IS EL NINO? El Nino is a global phenomenon that’s centered in the central and eastern Pacific when the ocean water temperatures become much warmer than average. This phenomenon oftentimes leads to a large disruption to the weather patterns across the globe.

The El Nino that we are currently having is one of, if not the strongest, on record. El Nino conditions usually peak in the late fall and winter months. I want to point out that the previous strongest El Ninos on record were in 1997 and 1982 & I do think that we will surpass both of those El Nino in terms of the amount of heat that’ll be present in the eastern and central Pacific.

Unlike what you may have seen on social media, this El Nino is not going to lead to the destruction of the United States or be the catalyst for the end of the world. It is going to be a very strong El Nino, that will have some large impacts on the weather this winter across the United States.

- WHAT ABOUT THIS UPCOMING WINTER? El Nino winters, especially those winters with strong El Nino conditions, can be particularly harsh for areas across the southern United States and the Florida Peninsula. This is due to the development of a particularly strong sub-tropical jet stream that often leads to a very active storm track that is centered over the southern United States.

FLORIDA PENINSULA: An active southern storm track this winter is likely to lead to frequent bouts of significant severe weather, heavy rain and flooding across the Florida Peninsula.

I am pretty concerned that January and February could be particularly stormy across the Florida Peninsula, in terms of both heavy rain & significant severe weather. Some past El Nino winters have produced some significant tornado events across parts of the Peninsula & this is something that’ll need to be watched very closely.

Bottom line is that El Nino winters are wet, cool and very stormy across the Florida Peninsula. This means that this winter may be anything but sunny across the Sunshine State.

SOUTHERN & SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES: Across the southern and southeastern United States, El Nino winters are very often stormy with a pattern that promotes not only heavy rainfall & the threat for flooding, but also some winter weather. This means that ice and snow risks could be a concern this winter at times across the Carolinas, as well as across the Tennessee Valley. It’s actually possible that there could be a winter weather threat as far south as the northern Gulf coast at some point in January or February.

Further west, above average rainfall and below average temperatures likely will extend westward to about the Texas Gulf coast, while a large majority of the rest of Texas should be closer to average for rainfall this winter.

One thing that many El Nino winters bring is the threat for winter weather across the Texas Panhandle into parts of far north Texas & I do think that we could see some winter weather threats during January and February across the Texas Panhandle and across far north Texas.

MID-ATLANTIC STATES & THE NORTHEASTERN US: I do think that this could be a winter where precipitation amounts are above to possibly well-above average across much of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. I do want to emphasize that this does not necessarily mean that it’s going to be a snowy winter across this region. In fact, the further north one goes in New England, the less snowy as compared to average it could be.

All-in-all, I think this winter will be above average in terms of temperatures across the northeastern US & across the Mid-Atlantic States. In addition, an active storm track is expected to curve up the East Coast & likely will lead to quite a bit in the way of storminess.

The big bug-a-boo in the forecast for this winter is how much of this storminess will be in the form of snow. Seasonal snow forecasts are always extremely uncertain & these types of forecasts should always be taken with a pound of salt. The reason why is because typically it only takes one or two storms in a winter to make or break a winter in terms of snow.

Given that we are probably going to see a winter where the temperatures will be above average, it’s going to take a “perfect” storm setup to create above average snow amounts for both the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeastern United States. Because of this, I’m leaning more towards widespread below average snow amounts this winter across both the Mid-Atlantic States and across the northeastern United States.

What I’m more concerned with this winter is the possibility of one or two significant ice storms across New England and New York State. Many past El Nino winters have produced some very notable and destructive ice storms across this region & this is something that’ll need to be watched during the months of January and February.

ALL-IN ALL, while this very strong El Nino WILL NOT bring upon a disaster of biblical proportions (wait for the Ghostbusters quote), “Fire & brimstone from the skies, rivers and seas boiling, forty years of darkness, earthquakes and volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together—MASS HYSTERIA!”, it will help to produce a winter that’s anything but quiet across the southern United States, the Florida Peninsula & across the eastern United States.

08/31/2026

Posted Late Monday Afternoon 8/31/2026: We have TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 located in the northern Gulf & is likely to strengthen into a Tropical Storm tonight or on Tuesday morning.

It is expected that this system will come ashore along the upper Texas coast during Tuesday afternoon as a 60 mph tropical storm.

Areas along the upper Texas coast and across southwestern Louisiana from near Galveston & Houston through Sabine Pass to about Lake Charles will be the area that sees tropical storm conditions during the day on Tuesday. This will include up to 50-60 mph wind gusts and rain, which will be locally heavy. Rainfall amounts along the upper Texas coast and across southwestern Louisiana will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches with isolated 4 to 6 inch rain totals possible.

In addition, minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is a possibility along the upper Texas coast and across coastal southwestern Louisiana tonight and Tuesday.

I am frequently updating our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers about the progress of Tropical Depression #5. Want to stay updated on this system? Become a subscriber!! The link to learn more and to subscribe to Crown Weather PLUS can be found in the first comment of this post. Your subscriptions and support keeps us in business.

08/30/2026

Posted Early Sunday Afternoon 8/30/2026: We are closely watching two systems - (1) The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, which is moving across the northeastern Caribbean today & (2) An area of low pressure, Invest 97-L, which is located over the Northern Gulf.

REMNANTS OF DOLLY: There is quite a bit of uncertainty as to what the remnants of Dolly may or may not do during this upcoming week. Very strong wind shear is currently impacting this system & even though it is putting up a fight against this shear, it’s quite possible that Dolly may never regenerate and redevelop.

That being said, systems like Ex-Dolly are ones that you can never completely write off this time of year. We have a long history of systems that have weakened to the point of almost dissipation that have come roaring back under a favorable environment.

It should be noted that the environmental conditions are expected to be potentially favorable later this coming week when this system reaches the area between the Bahamas and the eastern Gulf. This is why we are seeing models such as the European model and the Canadian model showing robust strengthening in the eastern Gulf at the very end of this coming week.

MY TAKE IS THAT I think there is a 50-50 chance that we will see the remnants of Dolly regenerate and redevelop probably in the eastern Gulf by about Friday or Saturday (although redevelopment in the western Bahamas is still possible too).

I am sending out at least once a day updates on the remnants of Dolly to our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers. Want to stay updated on this system? Become a subscriber!! The link to learn more and to subscribe to Crown Weather PLUS can be found in the first comment of this post.

INVEST 97-L LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF: It appears that we may see tropical development occur over the northern Gulf over the next day or two.

An area of low pressure, designated Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center, is producing persistent shower and thunderstorm activity over the northern Gulf. The actual low pressure system is currently located about 125 miles to the south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

The environmental conditions around Invest 97-L are actually favorable for development and strengthening of a tropical system & because of this, I think that it has a good shot of becoming a depression or Tropical Storm Eduardo as soon as later Monday. One factor that may inhibit this system from becoming a significant tropical system is time. It is expected that Invest 97-L will be moving onshore along the upper Texas coast or over southwestern Louisiana during the day on Tuesday.

I am also frequently updating our Crown Weather PLUS subscribers about the progress of Invest 97-L. Want to stay updated on this system? Become a subscriber!! The link to learn more and to subscribe to Crown Weather PLUS can be found in the first comment of this post. Your subscriptions and support keeps us in business.

Crown Weather Services

10/09/2026

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10/08/2026

10/06/2026

10/06/2026

10/04/2026

09/07/2026

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08/31/2026

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