16/08/2026
GEORGIA SHOWS HOW RUSSIA COULD WAGE PEACE ON UKRAINE
On 7 August 2008, russia invaded Georgia, followed by a “ceasefire” 5 days later. What happened in Georgia is the model russia is likely to follow once it tires of fighting in Ukraine
WHAT HAPPENED IN GEORGIA?
After an unprovided invasion, russia “froze” the conflict, occupied 20% of Georgia and just waited, whilst lying to the world that Georgia had started the war
WHAT’S HAPPENED SINCE 2008?
Russia funnelled funds into the pockets of Georgian politicians and within a few years, “Georgian Dream” came to power. Georgia gradually moved away from its previously strongly pro-Western trajectory while the government adopted increasingly russia-friendly rhetoric and policies
russia just seized power through other means
In 2024, parliamentary elections were marred by widespread reports of voter pressure, compromised ballot secrecy and an uneven playing field. Georgia’s president described the result as a “russian special operation” and accused the government of using Russian methods like ballot stuffing and hired goons
Georgia is now rapid transforming towards authoritarianism
IS THIS RUSSIA’S PLAN B?
I believe russia is tiring of the war in Ukraine and could switch tactics:
• Occupy more territory, demand a ceasefire, freeze the front
• Normalize occupation and wait for Western attention to wane
• Demand “elections” in a traumatized country with millions of voters displaced or occupied, then pour russian money, propaganda and influence into its politics
Georgia shows what’s likely to happen then!
SO - STOP SAYING “CEASEFIRE” AND “ELECTIONS”
Screaming “ceasefire” and “elections” as though those words magically produce peace, security and democracy is just dangerously naïve
Georgia already demonstrates what can happen after the fighting stops
A ceasefire can stop a war BUT - it can also freeze an invasion in place, normalize occupation, and give the aggressor leverage to pursue its objectives by other means
There’s only one way to stop this - RUSSIA OUT OF UKRAINE!
Roman
