First Alert Hurricane

09/02/2026

GULF COAST WEATHER DISCUSSION

Wednesday Afternoon, September 2, 2026

The overall weather pattern across the Gulf Coast will remain unsettled at times through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. The broad upper-level ridge that has covered much of the eastern United States is beginning to gradually retreat westward toward the central states. At the same time, a large upper-level trough well to our north will deepen southward along the East Coast and over the adjacent western Atlantic. These changes will gradually weaken the influence of the ridge across our part of the Gulf Coast and allow several smaller disturbances to affect the region.

One feature we will be watching is a modest upper-level trough currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will slowly move westward across the Gulf during the next several days and could eventually interact with some of the remaining moisture and energy associated with the remnants of Edouard. At the same time, a weakness in the upper-level flow is expected to linger from the northeastern Gulf into northern Florida. None of these features appears particularly strong by itself, but in a very moist early-September atmosphere, it does not take much of a disturbance to increase thunderstorm coverage.

Thursday should still feature more of a scattered summertime pattern, with the better rain chances generally south of Highway 84 and closer to the coast. By Friday, however, showers and thunderstorms should become considerably more numerous as the Gulf disturbance moves farther west. There are also indications that a weak surface reflection could accompany the upper-level feature, providing a little additional focus for thunderstorm development. Friday consequently looks like one of the wetter days of the period, although rainfall will still vary considerably from one community to another.

Another subtle change arrives Saturday as the larger trough developing along the East Coast helps push a weak surface trough southward into the Gulf Coast region. This should maintain a healthy coverage of showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest rain chances generally near the coast. That boundary may then stall or meander across the area Sunday and Monday before gradually washing out. With plenty of Gulf moisture remaining available, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should continue through the first part of next week. Even as the upper ridge attempts to rebuild across the eastern states, lingering upper-level weaknesses and occasional shortwave disturbances should prevent the atmosphere from completely settling down.

The main concern with thunderstorms each day will be locally heavy tropical rainfall and occasional gusty winds. With the atmosphere holding a considerable amount of moisture, some storms will be capable of producing a tremendous amount of rain in a short period of time. This does not necessarily mean widespread flooding, but the usual low-lying and poor-drainage locations could experience temporary problems beneath the heavier and slower-moving storms.

Over the Gulf waters, conditions will also remain favorable for an occasional waterspout, particularly during the morning hours when coastal convergence is strongest and the lower atmosphere is relatively unstable. Mariners should keep a close eye on developing showers and thunderstorms, since waterspouts can form rather quickly beneath stronger cells.

Temperatures will continue to look very much like early September along the Gulf Coast. Afternoon highs Thursday through Monday should generally reach the lower and middle 90s, with readings settling closer to the lower 90s by Tuesday. Thursday will feel especially humid, with heat index values generally between 100 and 105 degrees. Increased clouds and thunderstorms should hold apparent temperatures somewhat lower Friday, generally in the middle 90s to around 103. By Sunday and Monday, heat index readings could once again reach roughly 100 to 107 degrees before easing slightly Tuesday.

For beachgoers, the rip-current risk is presently expected to remain low through Sunday, although conditions can always become locally more hazardous near thunderstorms.

Looking at the pattern as a whole, there is no single major weather system dominating the Gulf Coast forecast. Instead, we are dealing with a series of relatively weak features moving through an atmosphere loaded with late-summer moisture. Thursday should remain somewhat more scattered in nature, followed by increasing rain and thunderstorm coverage Friday and continuing through much of the weekend and early next week. The important message is that not everyone will receive rain at the same time, but where thunderstorms do develop, tropical downpours and gusty winds will be possible.

09/02/2026

🌀 FIRST ALERT HURRICANE — 5-DAY TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
6:30 AM CDT | Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Atlantic • Caribbean • Gulf

This Wednesday morning finds the tropics in something of a transition period. Tropical Depression Edouard continues to fade away over interior eastern Texas, and the tropical storm warnings associated with the system have now come down. Edouard’s circulation will continue weakening over land, but the tropical moisture it brought north from the Gulf isn’t going anywhere in a hurry. That leftover moisture will remain capable of producing locally heavy rainfall along portions of the western Gulf Coast through at least Thursday.

Looking out over the Gulf this morning, there is no immediate indication from this particular weather pattern of another organized tropical cyclone taking Edouard’s place. What we do have is a broad weakness extending across portions of the western Gulf, while modest high pressure reaches southward from the southeastern United States toward the eastern Gulf. Between the two, a steady supply of warm, humid Gulf air will continue feeding northward toward the coast.

That doesn’t necessarily spell tropical development. Sometimes in September the Gulf can look awfully busy on the satellite picture without actually producing a tropical storm. Old forecasters learned a long time ago to look beyond the thunderstorms and find the pressure falls, wind shifts and whether a circulation is actually beginning to tighten up. For now, this looks more like a broad, wet and unsettled Gulf pattern than the beginning of another organized tropical system.

The western and northern Gulf should remain the wetter side of the basin through the end of the week. A coastal trough near Texas and Louisiana, combined with very deep tropical moisture, will keep scattered to numerous thunderstorms around. Some of those storms could produce tremendous rainfall rates for short periods of time. That is something we’ll watch closely, but heavy tropical rainfall by itself should never be confused with a developing tropical cyclone.

By Friday and into the weekend, the upper-air pattern becomes a little more interesting. A weakness aloft around the Tennessee Valley is expected to work westward toward the Gulf Coast and interact with another upper-level feature. That should maintain an unsettled pattern across portions of the northern Gulf through the weekend. Again, we’ll watch for any tendency for pressures to fall underneath that weakness, but at this stage the larger signal is for continued clouds, showers and thunderstorms rather than an obvious organized tropical threat.

Farther south across the Caribbean, we’ll continue watching the easterly trade-wind flow for tropical waves moving westward. September is the time of year when those waves deserve attention. The waters are plenty warm, but warm water is only one ingredient. A disturbance still needs favorable winds upstairs, a moist surrounding atmosphere and enough time to organize. We’ll watch each wave as it moves along rather than trying to turn every cluster of thunderstorms into tomorrow’s hurricane.

The same thinking applies farther east across the tropical Atlantic. We’re now moving through the traditional heart of hurricane season, so anything coming westward from Africa or traveling through the Main Development Region deserves to be followed. This is the part of the season when the old weather maps would stay spread across the table every morning, watching those tropical waves one longitude at a time.

As we head toward Sunday and Monday, high pressure aloft is expected to begin strengthening over the Southern Plains. If that happens as forecast, the Gulf Coast pattern should gradually become somewhat less favorable for widespread rainfall early next week. That doesn’t close the tropics for business, of course, but it does suggest the weather pattern along the northern Gulf may begin settling down after the weekend.

So for the next five days, there is no reason to get ahead of the weather. Edouard is fading over Texas, plenty of tropical moisture remains over the Gulf, and we’ll be watching the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for the next wave that tries to organize.

September has arrived, and historically this is when the Atlantic hurricane season reaches its busiest stretch. The Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are all worth watching carefully now. But we’ll do it the old-fashioned way — one map, one tropical wave and one day at a time.

First Alert Hurricane
Facts before fear. Watch the weather, not the rumors.

09/02/2026

09/02/2026

⚡ TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD KNOCKS OUT POWER ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS

Tropical Depression Edouard may be losing its punch as it moves farther inland, but folks across Southeast Texas are waking up this Wednesday morning to a reminder that even a modest Gulf storm can leave quite a calling card.

Around 75,000 customers were without electricity on the latest outage map, with some of the hardest-hit country stretching through Jefferson, Hardin, Orange, Tyler and Polk counties. The Beaumont–Port Arthur area has taken a particularly hard lick from the storm.

Edouard came ashore as a tropical storm and has since weakened to a depression, but the wind and rain were enough to do the damage. After all that tropical rain softened the ground, it didn’t always take a tremendous gust to bring down a tree or large limb. Once those trees started falling, power lines came down with them.

Utility crews are out this morning surveying the damage and working to get the lights back on. In some places, high water, fallen trees and debris are making that job a little more difficult.

This is one of those storms that brings us back to an old lesson in Gulf Coast meteorology: you don’t have to have a hurricane to have trouble. Sometimes a relatively small tropical storm comes ashore at just the wrong place, lays down several inches of rain, blows for a few hours and leaves quite a mess behind.

Edouard is steadily winding down, but the tropical moisture isn’t going anywhere in a hurry. Heavy downpours and localized flooding will remain possible today as what’s left of the circulation works deeper into Texas.

For Southeast Texas, the wind may be settling down, but for thousands waiting for the lights to come back on, Edouard isn’t quite finished yet.

Meteorologist Louis Smith
Accuracy over First — Facts, Not Fear

09/02/2026

🌀 BACK TO OLD-SCHOOL METEOROLOGY

First Alert Hurricane is getting back to the basics. We’ll follow the tropics map by map, satellite picture by satellite picture, and tropical wave by tropical wave, with the calm, straightforward approach that made meteorologists like Nash Roberts so trusted along the Gulf Coast.

We’ll still use today’s technology and computer guidance, but the models won’t tell the whole story. We’ll study the atmosphere, explain what we see, and tell you why.

Old-school meteorology. Modern tools. Facts without the fear.

09/02/2026

🌀📺 NASH ROBERTS — A WEATHER LEGEND I WILL NEVER FORGET

Every once in a while, someone comes into your life who leaves an influence that stays with you forever.

For me, one of those people was Meteorologist Nash Roberts.

My fascination with weather began when I was only six years old. Even as a child, I was fascinated by thunderstorms, hurricanes, weather maps and trying to understand what the atmosphere was going to do next.

Years later, I would have the opportunity to be around the world of New Orleans television weather at WWL during the 1980s, where Nash Roberts was already a legendary and deeply trusted figure.

Looking back on those days now, I realize just how special that era was.

📺 WHEN NASH SPOKE, PEOPLE LISTENED

If you grew up in southeastern Louisiana or along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, you probably understand exactly what I mean.

When a hurricane entered the Gulf, families gathered around the television.

There were no smartphones sending alerts every few minutes. There was no social media filled with hundreds of computer-model maps. There weren’t endless spaghetti plots being shared days or weeks before a storm.

You turned on the television.

You looked at the map.

And you listened to Nash.

🌀 Nash Roberts didn’t have to shout.

🌀 He didn’t have to frighten people.

🌀 He didn’t have to make every storm sound catastrophic.

His credibility was enough.

There was something reassuring about the way Nash explained a hurricane. He could take an incredibly complicated atmospheric situation and make ordinary people understand what was happening and, more importantly, what they needed to do.

That ability cannot be taught by a computer model.

It comes from experience.

🌦️ FORECASTING BEFORE THE COMPUTER AGE

Young meteorologists today have extraordinary technology available to them — high-resolution satellite imagery, Doppler radar, hurricane hunter data, ensembles and some of the most sophisticated numerical weather prediction models ever developed.

Nash came from another era.

Meteorologists had to study observations, pressure patterns, upper-air data, radar and satellite information that would seem primitive compared with what we have today.

They also had to rely heavily on something computers still cannot completely replace:

Experience.

Nash knew Gulf Coast weather.

He understood hurricanes.

He understood how storms behaved.

And after decades of forecasting them, he developed the kind of meteorological instinct that only comes from spending a lifetime watching the atmosphere.

✏️ Sometimes all Nash needed was a map, a marker and his knowledge.

And thousands of people trusted him with their safety.

❤️ WHAT I CARRIED WITH ME

Being around Nash and that generation of weather broadcasting left an impression on me that has followed me throughout my own years of forecasting weather.

One lesson stands above everything else:

Never forget the people on the other side of the forecast.

When we talk about hurricanes, we’re not simply talking about pressure readings, wind speeds, model tracks and satellite pictures.

We’re talking about someone’s home.

Someone’s family.

Someone deciding whether they should evacuate.

Someone lying awake at night wondering whether the storm is coming toward them.

That responsibility should never be taken lightly.

Nash understood that.

He didn’t need hype.

He didn’t need sensationalism.

He had the public’s trust — and he respected that trust.

🌀 THAT LESSON STILL GUIDES ME

After spending so many years studying hurricanes and Gulf Coast weather, I still think about those lessons.

Technology has changed.

Forecast models have changed.

Television has changed.

The way people receive weather information has completely changed.

But one thing should never change:

Accuracy before hype. Facts before fear.

That’s what I remember most about Nash Roberts.

When the Gulf became threatening and people were frightened, Nash was the calm voice in the room.

And sometimes, being that calm voice is one of the most important things a meteorologist can do.

📺🌀 THANK YOU, NASH

I’m grateful that my journey in weather allowed me to experience even a small part of that remarkable era of New Orleans broadcasting.

And I’m grateful for the lessons Nash Roberts left behind.

To many people, he was the legendary New Orleans weatherman.

To those of us who truly love meteorology, he represented something even greater:

What a meteorologist should strive to be.

Knowledgeable.

Responsible.

Calm.

Accurate.

And worthy of the public’s trust.

🌀📺 Nash Roberts — a pioneer, a teacher, a New Orleans original and a Gulf Coast weather legend whose influence will never disappear.

Some legends don’t fade.

We simply keep passing their lessons on to the next generation.

09/02/2026

🌀 FIRST ALERT HURRICANE — WE’RE GOING BACK TO OLD-SCHOOL METEOROLOGY

We’ve heard from our followers, and we’ve been listening.

Beginning now, First Alert Hurricane is going back to its roots.

We’re going to bring back some of the old-fashioned Gulf Coast meteorology that many of us grew up watching — the kind of weather forecasting associated with legendary New Orleans meteorologist Nash Roberts, who later became such a familiar presence at WWL-TV.

There was something special about the way weather was explained in those days. Nash didn’t need a television screen filled with a dozen computer models to tell the story. He gathered the available weather information, studied the maps and observations, and then explained what he believed the atmosphere was doing and, most importantly, why. Loyola University’s archive of his hurricane work still contains reconnaissance reports, weather observations, hand-plotted tracking charts, satellite imagery and the maps he used through decades of Gulf hurricane forecasting.

That’s the philosophy we’re bringing back.

Technology has given meteorologists tremendous tools that forecasters of earlier generations could only have dreamed about, and we’re certainly not throwing those tools away. Satellite imagery, Doppler radar, hurricane reconnaissance, computer guidance and ensemble forecasting are invaluable.

But the computer model isn’t the forecast.

The meteorologist is still supposed to interpret the atmosphere.

So you’ll notice a change in our tropical weather discussions. We’re going to slow things down and actually talk about the weather again.

We’ll follow the tropics map by map, weather feature by weather feature, and satellite picture by satellite picture. We’ll look at where the ridges and troughs are located. We’ll talk about surface pressures and wind patterns. We’ll watch tropical waves coming off Africa and follow them across the Atlantic. We’ll examine the Caribbean and Gulf and explain when the atmosphere looks favorable for development — and just as importantly, when it doesn’t.

When there’s a hurricane, we’ll look at the reconnaissance information, pressure tendencies, satellite presentation, steering currents and the overall weather pattern surrounding the storm.

Computer models will still be part of the discussion, but they won’t be the discussion.

That was one of the lessons of the Nash Roberts era. Roberts became known for standing in front of relatively simple weather maps with a marker and calmly walking viewers through what he saw. His forecasting career stretched across generations of New Orleans television, including WWL-TV, and his hurricane work became part of Gulf Coast weather history.

There was no screaming.

There was no trying to make every tropical wave frightening.

There was no turning every model run into tomorrow’s hurricane.

There was simply a meteorologist, a weather map and a conversation with the people watching at home.

That’s the direction First Alert Hurricane is taking.

We want you to understand what we’re seeing rather than simply showing you another spaghetti plot. If something concerns us, we’ll explain why. If something doesn’t concern us, we’ll explain that too. And when the forecast is uncertain, we’ll tell you exactly where that uncertainty comes from.

Some days the discussion may be as simple as looking at a satellite picture and saying, “There’s really not much there this morning.”

And that’s perfectly all right.

Meteorology doesn’t always have to be dramatic.

So pull up a chair. Imagine that old Gulf Coast weather map hanging on the wall and the satellite photograph sitting on the desk beside it.

We’re going back to talking weather.

Map by map. Satellite picture by satellite picture. Tropical wave by tropical wave.

We’re combining today’s technology with something that should never have disappeared from weather forecasting:

experience, observation and meteorology.

🌀 FIRST ALERT HURRICANE
Old-school meteorology. Modern information. Facts without the fear.

09/02/2026

🌀 FIRST ALERT HURRICANE — 5-DAY TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
6:30 AM CDT | Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Atlantic • Caribbean • Gulf

This Wednesday morning finds the tropics in something of a transition period. Tropical Depression Edouard continues to fade away over interior eastern Texas, and the tropical storm warnings associated with the system have now come down. Edouard’s circulation will continue weakening over land, but the tropical moisture it brought north from the Gulf isn’t going anywhere in a hurry. That leftover moisture will remain capable of producing locally heavy rainfall along portions of the western Gulf Coast through at least Thursday.

Looking out over the Gulf this morning, there is no immediate indication from this particular weather pattern of another organized tropical cyclone taking Edouard’s place. What we do have is a broad weakness extending across portions of the western Gulf, while modest high pressure reaches southward from the southeastern United States toward the eastern Gulf. Between the two, a steady supply of warm, humid Gulf air will continue feeding northward toward the coast.

That doesn’t necessarily spell tropical development. Sometimes in September the Gulf can look awfully busy on the satellite picture without actually producing a tropical storm. Old forecasters learned a long time ago to look beyond the thunderstorms and find the pressure falls, wind shifts and whether a circulation is actually beginning to tighten up. For now, this looks more like a broad, wet and unsettled Gulf pattern than the beginning of another organized tropical system.

The western and northern Gulf should remain the wetter side of the basin through the end of the week. A coastal trough near Texas and Louisiana, combined with very deep tropical moisture, will keep scattered to numerous thunderstorms around. Some of those storms could produce tremendous rainfall rates for short periods of time. That is something we’ll watch closely, but heavy tropical rainfall by itself should never be confused with a developing tropical cyclone.

By Friday and into the weekend, the upper-air pattern becomes a little more interesting. A weakness aloft around the Tennessee Valley is expected to work westward toward the Gulf Coast and interact with another upper-level feature. That should maintain an unsettled pattern across portions of the northern Gulf through the weekend. Again, we’ll watch for any tendency for pressures to fall underneath that weakness, but at this stage the larger signal is for continued clouds, showers and thunderstorms rather than an obvious organized tropical threat.

Farther south across the Caribbean, we’ll continue watching the easterly trade-wind flow for tropical waves moving westward. September is the time of year when those waves deserve attention. The waters are plenty warm, but warm water is only one ingredient. A disturbance still needs favorable winds upstairs, a moist surrounding atmosphere and enough time to organize. We’ll watch each wave as it moves along rather than trying to turn every cluster of thunderstorms into tomorrow’s hurricane.

The same thinking applies farther east across the tropical Atlantic. We’re now moving through the traditional heart of hurricane season, so anything coming westward from Africa or traveling through the Main Development Region deserves to be followed. This is the part of the season when the old weather maps would stay spread across the table every morning, watching those tropical waves one longitude at a time.

As we head toward Sunday and Monday, high pressure aloft is expected to begin strengthening over the Southern Plains. If that happens as forecast, the Gulf Coast pattern should gradually become somewhat less favorable for widespread rainfall early next week. That doesn’t close the tropics for business, of course, but it does suggest the weather pattern along the northern Gulf may begin settling down after the weekend.

So for the next five days, there is no reason to get ahead of the weather. Edouard is fading over Texas, plenty of tropical moisture remains over the Gulf, and we’ll be watching the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic for the next wave that tries to organize.

September has arrived, and historically this is when the Atlantic hurricane season reaches its busiest stretch. The Gulf, Caribbean and Atlantic are all worth watching carefully now. But we’ll do it the old-fashioned way — one map, one tropical wave and one day at a time.

First Alert Hurricane
Facts before fear. Watch the weather, not the rumors.

Tropical Tidbits