11/03/2026
Summary...Training thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates ahead of a slow moving cold front will result in
swaths of heavy rainfall that may lead to some instances
of flooding through 2pm local time from the ArkLaTex to
the Ozarks.
Discussion...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a
corridor of moderate to heavy rainfall extending from
northeastern Texas to the Ozarks of north-central
Arkansas this morning. There has been an increase in
stronger convection within this corridor, and training
storms are leading to areas of enhanced rainfall rates
between Little Rock and Clarksville.
The atmosphere is favorable for additional heavy rainfall
through the midday hours given nearly uni-directional flow
with modest veering with height, allowing for back-building
cells that will result in instances of convective training. PWs
are approaching the 1.7 to 2 inch range and mixed layer CAPE
gradually increasing into the 500-750 J/kg range per recent
SPC mesoanalysis. Broader deep layer ascent is also being
aided by diffluent right entrance dynamics and a nearby
mid-level shortwave.
Recent runs of the CAM guidance are suggesting the
potential for scattered QPF maxima on the order of 2-4
inches across portions of the outlook area through 2 pm
local time, and this is also supported by the HRRR and
RRFS guidance. This is reasonable to expect given recent radar
trends, and some instances of flooding are possible.
