Budapest Centre for Mass Atrocities Prevention

Budapest Centre for Mass Atrocities Prevention The Budapest Centre works to help bridge the gap between early warning and early action in the prevention of genocide and mass atrocities.

The Budapest Centre is a catalyst for relevant information and early warning coming from various sources, it operates an integrated warning-response support system which formulates policy recommendations and generate political consensus for early action at international and regional level. The Budapest Centre provides analysis, recommendations, methodology and support on mediation efforts in situa

tions of instability that could lead to mass atrocities, as well as tries to centralize and improve the quality of information, map existing competence in the field of genocide prevention, connecting academics and experts. The Budapest Centre also facilitates meetings and workshops aimed at enhancing cooperation among stakeholders, actors, donors, NGOs and representatives of media at regional level where the concrete tasks and challenges could be set on the agenda from the perspectives of genocide and mass atrocities.

01/08/2026

PLease read below the English version of my article published recently in Népszava online:

Peace Requires Courage Too
It is increasingly troubling that almost every political debate is focused on military responses, their financing, their effectiveness and their strategic implications as well as preparations for the continuation of war, the attrition of the enemy.
More troubling is that, whilst living under the shadow of a dangerous military escalation, one hardly hears political leaders who advocate dialogue, diplomacy, and confidence-building alongside military preparedness.
History teaches us that lasting peace has never rested solely upon deterrence or the balance of power. It has also depended upon sustaining political dialogue, keeping diplomatic channels open, and continuously cultivating mutual confidence. Deterrence without dialogue risks perpetual confrontation. Lasting security requires both. Such a dual-track approach ultimately contributed to Ostpolitik, détente, and the Helsinki Process.
Critics of dialogue argue that any initiative aimed at dialogue would be condemned by Ukraine as a betrayal, while interpreted by Russia as a sign of weakness, thereby encouraging further aggression. Accordingly, they come to the conclusion, the safest attitude is to avoid launching such initiatives.
I also hear the counter-arguments regarding the prematurity, high domestic political costs, weakening of international unity, unresolved justice and accountability etc.
These concerns deserve to be taken seriously but should not become an argument against dialogue and diplomacy. The principle of peaceful coexistence should remain a legitimate strategic objective rather than a wishful thinking which could and must be neglected. Waiting for the “perfect” time of engaging in dialogue ignores the risks of escalation, growing likelihood of deploying nuclear weapons, the daily loss of human lives and the increasing costs of destruction.
At the same time, a serious call for dialogue ensures moral and political advantage for the initiator. A sincere proposal for dialogue, confidence-building, and joint exploration of peaceful alternatives is not easily rejected indefinitely, either politically or morally. It forces the opposing side to explicitly justify its continuation of the war and bloodshed to the international community and its own domestic environment. That places the responsibility for the suffering on the refusing side and by that it changes the psychological dynamic of the conflict. Even if such an initiative were initially refused, the effort per se would still possess strategic value and would not justify abandoning it.
It is important to note that the launch of dialogue does not mean surrender or the immediate freezing of the frontlines. Initiating talks does not require to stop defending itself or allies to stop providing support. And most importantly, dialogue can run parallel to military deterrence.
History appreciates politicians not only by whether they possessed strength and courage to fight, but also by whether they possessed the wisdom and the vision to seek a path to peace before the opportunity was lost.
The essential first step for dialogue does not need to be a comprehensive peace agreement. It could be a clear declaration of political will for dialogue in a tone that it would rather anticipate reciprocity than presume its impossibility. That would create the political basis for the ensuing difficult work on the joint design of practical arrangements.
In that spirit, I would encourage every responsible political leader and every institution committed to Europe's future to speak not only the language of arms, but also the language of dialogue and diplomacy.
Preparing for war alone is not sufficient to secure peace and stability. We must prepare, with equal determination, for the making of peace.
And we must begin it today.

New Iron Curtain or New Security FrameworkEurope’s future can move in very different directions.One path leads towards a...
20/07/2026

New Iron Curtain or New Security Framework

Europe’s future can move in very different directions.

One path leads towards a prolonged frozen conflict, an arms race between heavily armed blocs and the emergence of a new Iron Curtain.

Another path points to an inclusive collective security system based on the principle of indivisible security, in which states cooperate to ensure that their choices do not trigger new wars.

The first option offers more fear and chances of war. The second looks more complicated, demands more creativity and courage, but may be the only route to durable peace.

Last April and June, international security experts—including Russian and Ukrainian scholars—came together to explore on...
17/07/2026

Last April and June, international security experts—including Russian and Ukrainian scholars—came together to explore one of Europe’s most pressing questions: how can military deterrence and diplomacy be better balanced to build a more secure and peaceful future? The discussions raised challenging issues that continue to shape Europe’s search for lasting peace.

Excluding or Integrating an Adversary

History suggests that lasting peace has often emerged when former adversaries were eventually integrated into the post-war order.

This was the case with France after the Napoleonic Wars, and with Germany and Japan after the Second World War, where inclusion went hand in hand with accountability.

When a major power is permanently kept outside the system, it can fuel new conflicts, fears, mistrust, and a spiral of instability.

The difficult question today is who could design—and how—a European security architecture that provides mutual security guarantees, prevents aggression, and promotes stability and cooperation.

Sovereignty and indivisible securityOne of the toughest questions in European security policy concerns the tension betwe...
16/07/2026

Sovereignty and indivisible security

One of the toughest questions in European security policy concerns the tension between sovereignty and indivisible security.

On the one hand, every state has the sovereign right to choose its alliances, security arrangements and political future.

On the other hand, each of these choices can deeply affect the security of neighbouring states and the wider region.

Was this dilemma one of the reasons for the Russian aggression against Ukraine?

Where should we draw the line between sovereign freedom of choice and a responsible consideration of others’ security fears?

What is “bulldozer diplomacy”?Contemporary geopolitics is increasingly shaped by what some observers call “bulldozer dip...
14/07/2026

What is “bulldozer diplomacy”?

Contemporary geopolitics is increasingly shaped by what some observers call “bulldozer diplomacy”.

This approach relies on strongman politics, unilateral coercion, open disregard for international law, and the rapid expansion of hybrid warfare into trade, migration, energy and food supplies.

When diplomacy itself turns into a blunt instrument of pressure, trust erodes and every negotiation becomes another battlefield.

In such an environment, where do you see space for genuine dialogue and compromise?

Last April and June, international security experts—including Russian and Ukrainian scholars—came together to explore on...
13/07/2026

Last April and June, international security experts—including Russian and Ukrainian scholars—came together to explore one of Europe’s most pressing questions: how can military deterrence and diplomacy be better balanced to build a more secure and peaceful future? The discussions raised challenging issues that continue to shape Europe’s search for lasting peace.

Many security experts argue that Europe’s security can be guaranteed through rearmament and military deterrence. But can a continent truly be secure if most of its energy goes into stockpiling weapons and signalling strength? Deterrence may help prevent conflict in the short term, but lasting peace requires something more: credible diplomacy, political imagination, and sustained dialogue across divides.

What kind of balance between defence and diplomacy do you think Europe needs today?

🔬 Alliance for Dialogue: a laboratory for future diplomacyDuring our panel and reflection group meeting, one idea became...
10/07/2026

🔬 Alliance for Dialogue: a laboratory for future diplomacy

During our panel and reflection group meeting, one idea became increasingly clear: we need to rethink diplomacy not only as a set of tools, but as a broader societal practice that can be experimented with and redesigned.

Participants described the reflection sessions as laboratories – experiments on how to conduct honest, conflict-laden yet still structured dialogue during war, and how to learn from these attempts in order to develop better formats and protocols later on.

🤝 The Alliance for Dialogue aims to strengthen citizen, civil, local and expert-level dialogue, and to contribute to the institutionalisation of dialogue within political decision-making.

This means testing small-scale, adaptive solutions, rather than accepting war as the only “grand experiment” left.

💬 If you are working on peacebuilding, diplomacy, education or human rights and see potential synergies, we invite you to stay connected and reach out.
👉https://www.genocideprevention.eu/en/alliance-of-dialogue

📚 Can adult education be a form of diplomacy?Several participants highlighted that diplomacy is not only the business of...
07/07/2026

📚 Can adult education be a form of diplomacy?

Several participants highlighted that diplomacy is not only the business of foreign ministries — it is also a question of mindset, learning and education.

One contribution referred to the Nordic tradition of adult education, where informal, dialogue-based learning focuses on values, responsibility and community-oriented thinking.

🌱 Over the long term, such forms of adult education may contribute more to peace than traditional, formal schooling alone.

They shape how citizens think about conflict, violence and compromise long before any official negotiation begins.

🤝 From this perspective, diplomacy starts at the level of citizens: in how we talk, listen, learn and organise ourselves.

Strengthening dialogue-based education, youth projects and experimental learning spaces is therefore an essential part of any peacebuilding strategy.

💬 Do you know examples where education has transformed how communities deal with conflict?

We would be glad to hear about them in the comments.
👉https://www.genocideprevention.eu/en/alliance-of-dialogue

🎙️ Who should speak – and who is being silenced?The reflection group also discussed difficult questions about responsibi...
30/06/2026

🎙️ Who should speak – and who is being silenced?

The reflection group also discussed difficult questions about responsibility, representation and voice.

One participant pointed out that the absence of genuine civil society and democratic institutions in Russia makes multi-level diplomacy deeply asymmetric. On one side there is a functioning society; on the other, a highly centralised decision-making structure closely tied to the regime.

At the same time, the idea that Russian society is uniformly pro-war was challenged. According to this perspective, only a relatively small share of the population is directly involved in the war, while many others remain silent out of fear.

⚖️ A strong and emotionally charged debate followed about the exclusion of Russian academic voices from international discussions — not citing Russian sources, not inviting Russian scholars.

For some, this is an understandable moral response to the war. For others, it risks becoming a form of epistemic injustice, limiting opportunities for understanding and critical engagement.

🤝 These tensions highlight how complex it is to create dialogue spaces that are both fair and safe during wartime.

For us, dialogue sessions are laboratories for exploring new forms of diplomacy and new pathways toward restoring pan-European stability and security.

💬 What do you think? Where should the balance be drawn between moral responsibility, security concerns and the inclusion of different voices in dialogue?
👉 https://www.genocideprevention.eu/en/alliance-of-dialogue

Panel Discussion: “Rebalancing Diplomacy and Militarism/Deterrence?”This dialogue session was organized on 11 June, 2026...
25/06/2026

Panel Discussion: “Rebalancing Diplomacy and Militarism/Deterrence?”

This dialogue session was organized on 11 June, 2026 as the inaugural event of the Initiative “Dialogue for Pan-European Stability, Security and Multipolarity.”

Panelists:
• Tom Sauer, University of Antwerp
• Loïc Simonet, Austrian Institute for International Affairs
• Artemy Magun, Institute for Global Reconstitution
• Julian Romanyshyn, Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies

Due to technical difficulties with his internet connection, Mr. Romanyshyn was unable to participate in the session. Nevertheless, several of his key points have been incorporated into the Briefing Note prepared on the discussion, which will be published in the coming days.

Panel Discussion: “Rebalancing Diplomacy and Militarism/Deterrence?...

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