11/08/2026
A country does not need a war for its youth to want to leave.
What happens when institutions still function, streets remain relatively safe, and yet young people increasingly believe that their most credible future lies somewhere else?
In DAMI Senter Working Paper No. 04/2026, we examine Morocco and the 2026 Ceuta crisis to explore why high-risk irregular migration can become a conceivable option even in the absence of war or institutional collapse.
The paper introduces the concept of the “Possible-Life Gap” — the perceived distance between the life people aspire to build and the life they believe they can realistically achieve at home.
It also asks a more uncomfortable question:
What happens before young people reach the border that makes the future beyond it appear more credible than the future within it?
Borders explain where people left from; they do not explain why they wanted to leave.
📄 DAMI Senter – Working Paper No. 04/2026
For the full working paper, contact DAMI Senter.
https://damisenter.no/en/a-country-does-not-need-a-war-for-its-youth-to-flee/
What Makes the Sea Look More Rational Than Staying? Morocco and the 2026 Ceuta Crisis DAMI Senter – Working Paper No. 04/202611.08.2026By Louay AL-Daher A country does not need to be at war for its young people to want to leave. Institutions may still function. Streets may be safe. Development may...