06/10/2026
Does El-Nino means there'll be no rain or heavy rain in southern Africa?
Wrong interpretation ❌
We have seen several misconceptions and wrong interpretation of El-Nino and its impact over the Southern African Region, rising immediate tension, fears and panic among farming communities and agri-businesses.
Read carefully as we tried to simplify what El-Nino is and how it impacts the Southern African region. 👇
1. Does El-Nino occur in the southern African region?
Answer: NO ❌
El-Nino is a sea surface temperature condition. Develops when the sea surface temperatures across the central to eastern tropical Pacific ocean becomes warmer than average. El-Nino is a large scale global climate signal/driver, not limited to Southern or East Africa 🌍 ✅
While El-Nino occurs several thousand kilometres away from Southern Africa, the impact are directly felt in Africa, more directly in the East Africa and Southern African region.
2. How does El-Nino affect Southern Africa??
El-Nino affect Southern Africa in different ways, but majorly it caused cold air to sink over the southwestern Indian Ocean and much of Southern Africa. Widespread rainfall activities are more dominant in regions with high atmospheric buoyancy, surface convergence and rising air. Instead of rising air, El-Nino force cool dry air to sink over Southern Africa, the sinking cool air warms adiabatically as the approach the surface, suppressing potential widespread rainfall development and leading to warmer surfaces temperatures. In simple terms, Southern Africa receive below average rainfall because cool dry air are sinking instead of warm, moist air to rise.
3. Does El-Nino means no rain or no heavy rain in the Southern African region?
Answer: NO ❌
While El-Nino suppresses rainfall in the southern African region, it doesn't always means "rain will not fall" or heavy rainfall will not occur. Delete that misconception first.
Below average rainfall is not total dryness, this is what it's: for example, if Lusaka Zambia usually get 300 millimetres of rainfall on average in November for the previous ten to 30 years, and in 2026 only 150 or 200 millimetres of rainfall are realized and recorded, that means Lusaka got below normal or below average rainfall.
4. Is it possible for very heavy and widespread rainfall activities to occur in Southern Africa during El-Nino?
Answer: YES ✅
While El-Nino typical suppressed rainfall in the Southern African region, it doesn't rule out potential for heavy and widespread thunderstorms. In fact, localized flooding may be possible in selected location.
5. So what should we expect from a typical El-Nino season?
Answer: Below average rainfall and above average temperatures ✅
Rainfall activities will become inconsistent, unreliable and unpredictable. A brief periods of heavy rainfall will be followed by long to prolonged dry spells, atmospheric taste will increased and soil moisture will dry faster than usual, causing soil moisture deficiency and stress in crops. Occasional showers may suddenly be succeeded by several dry days leaving farmers and their livestock wondering when the next round may come.
6. Is this the first time El-Nino is occurring?
Answer: Capital NO ❌
El-Nino have been occurring, a child of 10 years may have experienced more than 2 to 3 El-Nino years. 2023/2024 was also an El-Nino year (one of the most strongest in history).
One important thing to know is: The impact of El-Nino is seasonal and regional, Southern Africa mostly feels the rainfall suppressing impact during the months of November to February. Within the Southern African region, some locations may still experience above normal rainfall throughout the season.
7. When is the 2026 El-Nino starting in Southern Africa??
Answer: Wrong Question ❌❌❌
El-Nino has developed since April-May-June season, and it's currently active, breaking records and exceeding the super El-Nino threshold. El-Nino Will not start in Southern Africa later in the year or months, it has started since months ago.
What starts in southern Africa from next month is the impacts, and what's the impacts?
Inconsistent and unreliable rainfall, occasional long to prolonged dry spells, high surface temperatures etc. even at that localized heavy and widespread thunderstorms are still possible.
We'll publish another seasonal outlook from NMME before the end of the week. Anticipate and stay weather Aware ☁️ 🌍 ⛈️
Adapted from Facebook
