02/08/2024
"The Electoral College Landscape" | Weekend Reading - Michael Podhorzer | 02/08/2024
THE MAP: Only Two Paths to 270: Pennsylvania or Georgia + Michigan
To win the Electoral College, Biden must win either Pennsylvania, or both Georgia and Michigan; there is no realistic path to 270 without at least one of these combinations.
INSIGHT: One of the many reasons I urge people to stop caring about horse race polls is that we already know all we need to know ahead of Election Day: The outcome will be determined, as it was in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022, by narrow margins in six battleground states – the three northern states that once constituted the “Blue Wall” (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), and three more diverse states (Arizona, Georgia and Nevada). The margins in these states are usually much too small for any poll to reasonably predict. And we know that Democrats have won in those states only when voters were fully aware that the alternative was MAGA.
In this post, I’ll talk more about those six states and their Electoral College math (including an interactive tool). As always, remember that the outcome in those states will depend not on the margin of error in polls, but on the margin of effort by campaigns, activists, media, and concerned citizens to mobilize America’s anti-MAGA majority.
To reach 270, Biden needs to win either Pennsylvania, or Georgia + Michigan.