Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) The Center for European Policy Analysis | CEPA’s mission is to ensure a strong and democratic transatlantic alliance for future generations.

Media:[email protected] The Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) is a non-partisan think-tank dedicated to re-inventing Atlanticism for a more secure future. Headquartered in Washington, D.C. and led by seasoned transatlanticists and emerging leaders from both sides of the Atlantic, CEPA brings an innovative approach to the foreign policy arena. Our cutting-edge analysis and timely debates galv

anize communities of influence while investing in the next generation of leaders to understand and address present and future challenges to transatlantic values and principles.

08/31/2026

Public reporting says the CIA director went to Moscow to warn Russia against attacking a NATO member. David Cattler thinks that framing misses what is actually being tested.

The useful question is not whether Putin wants a war with NATO. It is whether Moscow believes it can test NATO without starting one. Those are different propositions, and not wanting a war is no guarantee against probing for the edge of one. Russia has shown a rising willingness to take risks against NATO countries, operating below what it judges to be the threshold of conventional war.

Read the full report in the comment below.

Early efforts to control biological weapons ran into an awkward problem. The equipment used to brew beer can also be use...
08/31/2026

Early efforts to control biological weapons ran into an awkward problem. The equipment used to brew beer can also be used to produce a pathogen.

That is the dual-use difficulty, and it has defeated cleaner rules than anyone is currently proposing for AI. The 1972 Biological Weapons Convention already restricts developing these weapons, and verification remains hard enough that the US once bombed a pharmaceutical plant in Sudan on the strength of satellite imagery and soil samples. James Lewis argues the useful question is what needs adding to that convention, not what a new AI treaty would say.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

08/31/2026

Rosstat stopped publishing Russia's demographic data in 2025. This year, it stopped publishing civil servant, teacher, and doctor salaries, household income and expenditure, and spending on housing and utilities.

At least 14 other state agencies have stopped releasing statistics since the war began. The prosecutor general's office no longer updates crime data, the Treasury has stopped releasing detailed budget information, and officials' annual income declarations have disappeared entirely. Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan argue this is not secrecy for its own sake but the predictable output of governing through counterintelligence, where any inconvenient number becomes a liability.

Read the full piece in the comment below.

Innovation shapes economies, strengthens security, and defines the future.Throughout his career, Börje Ekholm has advanc...
08/31/2026

Innovation shapes economies, strengthens security, and defines the future.

Throughout his career, Börje Ekholm has advanced global connectivity, accelerating 5G deployment and helping lay the foundation for the 6G era.

CEPA is honored to present Börje Ekholm with the Global Impact Award in recognition of his visionary leadership and enduring contributions to technological innovation.

Congratulations, Börje.

On August 1, Patriarch Kirill told worshippers that Russia's atomic bomb was built at Sarov through the prayers of a sai...
08/30/2026

On August 1, Patriarch Kirill told worshippers that Russia's atomic bomb was built at Sarov through the prayers of a saint who died in 1833.

The occasion was the feast marking the uncovering of St. Seraphim's relics, and the claim was that the location was no accident: divine grace and mercy, delivered through nuclear physics. Alexander Motyl notes that Pope Leo XIV and the Dalai Lama have both used this same month to argue the opposite case, that weapons capable of indescribable catastrophe offend our shared humanity.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

08/29/2026

Ratcliffe reportedly warned Moscow against attacking NATO territory. The campaign already underway involves sabotage, drone incursions, and arson at facilities supplying Ukraine.

David Cattler argues the response to any of it need not mirror the attack. A cyberattack does not require a cyber response, and sabotage does not require sabotage in return. Allies hold diplomatic, economic, intelligence, cyber, and military instruments, and the test is not symmetry but whether Moscow's calculation actually changes.

Read more about Russia's shadow war in the comment below.

People have named their ships and talked to their cars for centuries. Doing it does not make the object human.The impuls...
08/28/2026

People have named their ships and talked to their cars for centuries. Doing it does not make the object human.

The impulse is old and mostly harmless, but James Lewis argues it now misdirects policy. Describing AI as escaping or going rogue feeds a sense that the technology is uncontrollable, when what it actually needs is safety standards for how these tools get built, so that error can be measured and liability assigned to someone.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

08/28/2026

The CIA director reportedly flew to Moscow this week to tell Russian intelligence not to attack a NATO member state.

A warning like that only carries if the thing behind it is real. Lieutenant General (Ret.) Lance Landrum describes what NATO has built: allies cohered, national militaries grown and trained, readiness raised so members can contribute under the NATO Force Model, and SACEUR holding a broad range of options to put before political authorities.

Read more on Russia's shadow war in the comment below.

08/28/2026

CIA Director John Ratcliffe met his Russian counterparts in Moscow this week, in a contact the Kremlin describes as positive even while calling the relationship a profound crisis.

Andrei Soldatov argues that a country of 147 million people, with strong engineers and a capable technology sector, cannot be sealed off from the world, whatever the sanctions architecture looks like. Channels of the kind Ratcliffe used exist partly for that reason. The harder question is what they are meant to accomplish beyond keeping the line warm.

Listen to the full episode in the comment below.

Identification with the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate has fallen to roughly 5%, from 13% in 2021....
08/28/2026

Identification with the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate has fallen to roughly 5%, from 13% in 2021.

The church declared independence from Moscow after the invasion and the collapse happened anyway. Over the same period the Orthodox Church of Ukraine climbed from 24% to 42%, and around 80% of Ukrainians now back severing ties with the Russian Orthodox Church, with 62% supporting a ban on religious organizations linked to the aggressor state. Kateryna Odarchenko argues the war has forced a reckoning less about faith than about which institutions people are willing to trust.

Read the full analysis in the comment below.

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