New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy

10/13/2026

🇺🇦 In a new report, New Lines Institute’s Emily Prey and Hoar Habrelian examine how Ukraine’s experience managing prisoners of war can inform detention practices, strengthen compliance with the Third Geneva Convention, and help European states prepare for future conflicts.

The report offers recommendations on detention conditions, independent monitoring, medical care, transparency, and cooperation with Ukrainian authorities.

Read the report: https://newlinesinstitute.org/24/geneva-convention-iii-on-prisoners-of-war-translating-legal-requirements-into-daily-practicelessons-from-ukraine/

10/09/2026

🌎 Weekly Forecast Monitor | October 3–9, 2026

🇸🇦 Middle East: Saudi Arabia launched an air campaign supporting a Yemeni government counteroffensive as the U.S. prepared for possible renewed strikes against Iran.
🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S./China: Discussions on reciprocal nuclear site visits offered a potential opening for arms control talks, while military tensions persisted across the Indo-Pacific.
🇺🇦🇷🇺 Russia/Ukraine: Russian attacks killed at least 30 people in Ukraine as the EU expanded sanctions against more than 1,600 people and entities linked to Russia.
🇧🇷 Americas: Brazil’s presidential election advanced to a runoff between Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, while the U.S. intercepted a major biodiesel shipment bound for Cuba.

⚡️ Global Connectivity: Record-low European diesel imports, hurricane-related production cuts in the Gulf of Mexico, and shifting Gulf oil export routes are reshaping global energy markets.

🎧 Listen to the Global Hotspots Podcast: https://newlinesinstitute.org/forecast/global-hotspots-examining-the-consequences-of-brazils-first-round-of-elections/

10/08/2026

🗞️ [ ] Assistant Director Dania Arayssi spoke with The Astana Times at the CAMCA Regional Forum in Baku about the future of regional integration in Central Asia.

She highlighted how ambitions in AI, technology, energy, trade, and infrastructure increasingly depend on stronger regional coordination — a core focus of New Lines Institute’s S7+ Initiative.

Read more here: https://astanatimes.com/2026/10/camca-forum-explores-prospects-for-greater-regional-convergence/

10/07/2026

What does the captagon trade look like after the collapse of the Assad regime?

In the latest from the New Lines Institute’s Captagon Trade Project, Caroline D. Rose, Karam Shaar and Roaa Obeid examine how the trade has evolved following the disruption of state-sponsored captagon production in Syria.

While the Assad regime’s fall has altered the dynamics of the trade, captagon trafficking persists, raising questions about continued flows through Lebanon, Jordan, and from Syria.

Read the full report: https://newlinesinstitute.org/24/levantine-captagon-smuggling-following-assads-downfall/

10/02/2026

🌏 What defined Q3, and what comes next?

In this special edition of Global Hotspots, the New Lines geopolitical forecasting team takes a closer look at the major developments, conflicts, and emerging risks that shaped the third quarter. The team then turns to Q4, examining the geopolitical trends and global hotspots to watch as 2026 enters its final quarter.

From ongoing conflicts to political shifts and emerging sources of instability, this episode looks back at where the world has been and ahead at what could shape the months to come.

🎧 Listen to the special edition of Global Hotspots:

In this special edition of Global Hotspots, Milos Maggiore, Jared Jeter, Andrew Loftesnes, and Sebastian Dittgen break down some of the key incidents that happened over this past quarter and look at some of the major trends we can expect as 2026 comes to a close. Conflicts in the Middle East and Ru...

10/02/2026

As the U.S. accelerates re-engagement with Libya, through AFRICOM exercises, ExxonMobil energy deals, and new security partnerships, a new report from Gerasimos Tsourapas and Iosif Kovras for New Lines asks an uncomfortable question: are we strengthening accountable institutions, or underwriting the forces that make critics disappear?

Forced disappearance in Libya has been a durable method of governance for over a century — one that now extends across the region to silence journalists, activists, and diaspora communities abroad.

Read the report to learn more about forced disappearance, its use as a tool of transnational repression, and how U.S. policymakers can push back against its use in the region.

📖: https://newlinesinstitute.org/intl-law-peace/libyas-long-reach-transnational-repression/

10/01/2026

📸 Assistant Director Dr. Dania Arayssi participated in the CAMCA Regional Forum (Rumsfeld Foundation) in Baku, Azerbaijan, where she presented the S7+ framework during a panel moderated by S. Frederick Starr and engaged with officials, experts, and regional stakeholders.

CAMCA is an annual, non-partisan forum that brings together leaders from across Central Asia, Mongolia, the Caucasus, and Afghanistan to advance dialogue, regional cooperation, and sustainable economic growth.

09/30/2026

🚨 The 2026 Q4 Forecast Report is here.

What will shape the landscape of global risk in the final months of the year?

Q4 is likely to bring rising geopolitical tensions across several global hotspots, with conflicts, elections, trade restrictions, technology competition, and energy disruptions shaping the international landscape.

Our latest forecast breaks down the key developments to watch across the Middle East, Indo-Pacific, Russia/Ukraine, the Americas, country-level hotspots, and global connectivity.

The full report is available to subscribers of our AI-powered Geopolitical Forecasting Platform built by Mantis Analytics and the New Lines Institute teams.

Read the executive summary and learn how to access the full forecast with a 28-day free trial at the link in bio.

09/25/2026

🌎 Weekly Forecast Monitor | September 19–25

🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S./China: Xi Jinping and Donald Trump met in Washington, extending the bilateral trade truce for another two months as both sides signaled progress on economic and policy issues.

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Russia/Ukraine: Diplomatic engagement continued alongside intensified military activity, including Ukraine’s launch of more than 1,000 missiles and drones into Russia.

🇪🇹 Ethiopia: Fighting escalated in Tigray and Amhara, with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front seizing key airports and territory amid growing coordination among armed groups.

⚡ Global Impact: Energy disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz are pushing European power producers toward greater coal use, while Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline has resumed operations, easing some supply concerns.

🎧 Listen to the latest Global Hotspots Podcast:

In this week’s episode, Milos Maggiore, Jared Jeter, and Andrew Loftesnes are joined by in-house guest Sebastian Dittgen to examine growing instability in Ethiopia, as the Tigray People’s Liberation Front joins forces with other insurgent groups and raises new questions about the country’s sec...