10/10/2025
The Eritrean Dictator, Not Abiy, Is the Real Threat to Peace!
Six years after 's 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, as the Committee selects its next laureate, the Eritrean dictator and his cronies, and so-called opposition, are spreading lies. They claim Abiy, as a proxy for Israel and the UAE, is waging war on . They even demand that his Nobel Prize be revoked. fully deserved the Nobel Peace Prize, and he has upheld its promise.
neither wants nor is capable of waging war against Eritrea, and poses no threat to its sovereignty. This is especially given Ethiopia’s economic hardship after five years of bloody, multifront internal conflict and widespread societal fragmentation. The real warmonger, the one destabilizing Ethiopia, is the Eritrean dictator. He is arming and training the TPLF, Fano, and OLA militias.
In 2018, after the TPLF — which had ruled for 27 years — was removed from power following the Qeerroo youth uprising in Oromia, Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister. He unconditionally accepted the 2002 decision of the independent Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission (EEBC). This formally ended a two-decade-long border dispute between the two countries and opened a new chapter of peace. This bold, historic step earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
Abiy Ahmed pressed the Eritrean dictator to implement the border demarcation swiftly. The dictator dismissed it as a priority. Meanwhile, the ousted TPLF protested. Yet, the border was never the real cause of conflict. The real divide stemmed from Ethiopia’s federal constitution. It is based on ethnic and linguistic identity and grants regions autonomy—including the right to secession. This system was created by the TPLF and fiercely opposed by the Eritrean dictator.
The tactical peace between Abiy and Isaias held for four years, lasting until the Ethiopia–Tigray war ended in November 2022. During this period, the Eritrean dictator, deluded by Abiy’s “Tedemrenal” (We are Included) campaign, staged photo ops, orchestrated demonstrations in Asmara and abroad. He sabotaged the border demarcation—all while plotting to dismantle the TPLF.
The TPLF, rejecting Abiy Ahmed’s authority and eager to regain power, also obstructed the border demarcation. To the Eritrean dictator’s delight, in November 2020, the TPLF’s preemptive attack drew Abiy into the Tigray war. In alliance with the dictator and Amhara militias, the federal forces crushed the TPLF in Tigray, resulting in approximately 600,000 casualties in Tigray.
Although the Pretoria Peace Agreement of November 2022 ended active fighting and reaffirmed Ethiopia’s federal constitution, the Eritrean dictator and Amhara militias opposed its implementation. After the agreement, the TPLF split: one faction sided with Abiy, while the other sought to seize Addis Ababa and allied with the Eritrean dictator. In his recent letter to the UN, Abiy affirmed Ethiopia's respect for Eritrea’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
The 's dictator has never accepted Ethiopia’s diversity or federal system. His longstanding goal to dismantle the popular federal arrangement and restore an Amhara-dominated unitary state remains unchanged. Abiy’s “crime” is that he defends and implements Ethiopia’s federal constitution more faithfully than the TPLF that created it. The dictator sees Abiy’s signature on the Pretoria Agreement as treason and continues to plot against him.
The Eritrean dictator’s destabilization extends far beyond Ethiopia. In , he is arming and training tens of thousands of Islamist militias, fighting alongside the SAF led by Burhan against the RSF led by Hemeti. In , he trained 10,000 fighters under the pretense of supporting the government. Most of these fighters defected to Al-Shabaab. In , he also cooperates with the , remaining silent as they attack ships in or near Eritrean waters. This makes him complicit in destabilizing the Red Sea and targeting U.S., , and European vessels.
He is destabilizing the region even with a collapsed economy. , the de facto nation-state of the indigenous Tigrayan nation, has no internal or external threats. The Tigrinya people are the overwhelming majority in Eritrea, who are highly homogeneous and have no tribal or clan structure. It also benefits from naturally defensible borders. Yet the West, focusing only on GDP and population size, wrongly assumes threatens Eritrea. It does not.
It is the Eritrean dictator’s irreconcilable demands and actions, not Abiy, that thwart and threaten lasting peace. The 2018 peace deal did not serve the dictator’s ambitions in Ethiopia: to dismantle the popular federal arrangement and restore an Amhara-dominated unitary state, his forefathers’ dream. Awarding Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize was fully consistent with the Committee’s logic. It recognized his courageous, decisive steps toward peace at that moment, not the permanence of peace itself.
Similarly, the awarded to Rabin, Peres, and Arafat recognized decisive steps toward the Oslo Accord, not lasting peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As long as the Eritrean dictator remains in power, Ethiopia and the region will remain destabilized. Abiy did not threaten peace—Isaias did and continues to do so. No propaganda can change that fact.
Written by Dr Habtom
