10/15/2026
According to the United Nations, fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman in 55 percent of all countries and areas, accounting for more than two-thirds of the global population. This means that in the absence of net immigration, these populations would eventually begin to decline. Some countries are already shrinking, including China, Japan, Italy, Russia, and most of Eastern Europe.
Today, more than a quarter of the global population — over 2 billion people — live in countries with a very low total fertility rate below 1.3 births per woman. China alone, which has a fertility rate of just 1, accounts for 1.4 billion of these people. South Korea is the country with the world’s lowest fertility rate, at just 0.8 births per woman.
Not only are people having fewer children — the proportion of people completely forgoing parenthood is also increasing.
A new paper by demographer Tomáš Sobotka, The global fertility freefall: trends, drivers and uncertainties, published in Reproductive BioMedicine Online, notes that in some countries, including Italy, Spain, and Japan, up to 25–30% of women born between the 1960s and the early 1980s don’t have children.
Is this a crisis?
https://populationconnection.org/blog/study-where-and-why-are-fertility-rates-very-low/