10/02/2026
Why are these numbers so important? Because they change how we evaluate the landscape of baseball today.
The purpose is not to diminish today’s players, although I know that will be the immediate reaction from some people. The purpose is to question a narrative we’ve been hearing for the last eight to ten years: pitchers are throwing so much harder that hitting has become an entirely different challenge.
MLB’s league batting average fell from .264 in 2003 to .244 in 2026—a 20-point decline. That is significant.
Yet many people are selling the idea that former professionals cannot teach the modern hitter because they never faced this kind of velocity. If the study’s velocity comparisons are accurate, that argument deserves serious scrutiny.
If velocities are similar, batting averages are lower, and strikeouts are substantially higher, we need to ask harder questions about how hitting is being taught and evaluated today. Those numbers do not establish the cause, but they do challenge the claim that increased velocity alone explains the difference—or that the knowledge of former professionals is somehow outdated.
This extends beyond MLB. I’ve seen it firsthand here in Dayton.
In our local high school conference, 38 players hit over .300 in 2026. In 2013, the year I graduated, 47 players hit above .338—and that list doesn’t even include everyone who hit over .300.
If velocities are similar, I believe the way swings are being taught deserves much closer examination. In my view, we’ve moved toward swings dominated by the shoulders, with less emphasis on the forearms and wrists, a slight upward swing path, and too little barrel control. But I digress.
Here’s where things get interesting to me. Pitchers like Daulton Mosbarger, Ryan Zeigler, and plenty of others used to throw 88–90 mph, strike out 12, and give up no hits. Today, I see pitchers throwing 88–90 get hit around while recording only six or seven strikeouts. Yet overall batting averages are lower.
That apparent contradiction is why I think this data matters. My interpretation is that an 88–90 mph fastball roughly 14 years ago presented a challenge comparable to a 90–93 mph fastball today. The game results I’m seeing appear consistent with that idea.
These comparisons alone don’t prove that swing instruction caused the decline. But they give us a legitimate reason to question what has changed, how we’re teaching hitters, and whether today’s methods are producing better results.
Thanks for taking the time to read!