30/09/2026
Strong El Niรฑo conditions are developing, which will inevitably threaten food security, agriculture and livelihoods across multiple regions in the world. This El Niรฑo is expected to bring significantly drier conditions to Southern and Eastern Africa, while increasing the likelihood of floods and storms in the Horn of Africa. This risk is compounded by a heightened probability of a transition to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole phase over the same period, which is expected to intensify drought conditions in parts of Southern Africa, while further increasing flood risks across the Horn of Africa.
The impacts of El Niรฑo on agriculture and food security can be severe, as evidenced in the previous El Niรฑo experiences. During the 2015โ2016 El Niรฑo event, more than 60 million people worldwide were affected, leading to widespread crop failures and livestock losses. More recently, the 2023โ2024 El Niรฑo episode triggered even more severe and widespread impacts across multiple regions, with regional estimates indicating that nearly 68 million people were affected by drought in Southern Africa alone.
More worse, during the 2026-2027 El Niรฑo, Southern Africa is expected to face a high probability of drought and rainfall deficits during the main cropping season; reduced maize production and crop failures; reduced pasture and water availability for livestock; and increased food insecurity and livelihood losses among rain-fed farming households. The Drought could also lead to an increased incidence of plant and animal pests and disease outbreaks.
So, in the face of the looming El Niรฑo, what is the solution? Based on previous El Niรฑo experiences, acting early is essential to protect food production, preserve livelihoods and reduce the need for costly humanitarian response later. Since an El Niรฑo is often predictable i.e. it has a slow onset and a regular pattern, it is possible to design anticipatory actions and prepare emergency responses in advance. Evidence shows that every USD 1 invested in anticipatory action can generate up to USD 7 in avoided humanitarian losses. These savings make anticipatory action not only cost-effective, but essential to maximizing the impact of limited resources.
Anticipatory action seeks to prevent or mitigate the initial impacts of El Niรฑo induced hazards before they trigger cascading effects across food systems and livelihoods. By acting before crises peak, anticipatory action helps vulnerable households safeguard livelihoods, stabilize food consumption, protect agricultural production and strengthen resilience. For example, by acting early through supporting farmers to sustain local production, it helps to stabilize food availability and market supply; thereby, reducing the downstream impacts that would otherwise affect a much larger population. In this way, timely support to a smaller, highly targeted group contributes to protecting the food security of many more people.
It should be explicitly mentioned that effective preparedness for the anticipated El Niรฑo demands a deep sense of ownership and comprehensive anticipatory strategies by both the government and the local communities countrywide. Key Government strategies could encompass: community-focused Early Warning Systems, community disaster preparedness, climate adaptation policies, financial safety instruments, among others. On the other hand, local community strategies could range from climate smart farming systems to sustainable water management practices.
Community-tailored Early Warning Systems are a crucial component of governmental strategies towards El Niรฑo preparedness. Timely dissemination of accurate weather forecasts by the Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) will be significant in allowing communities and stakeholders to prepare adequately for impending disruptions. Such weather information will need to be purposefully packaged in non-technical English vocabulary for easy understanding and application by the local communities. Translating such weather information to common Zambian local languages will further aid some farmers, who may not possess basic comprehension in the English language.
Another vital Governmental strategy is implementing community disaster preparedness programs. These programs often include public education campaigns, emergency response training, and the development of infrastructure capable of withstanding extreme weather events. For example, Governmentโs disaster risk management plans could involve improving drainage systems in regions where torrential rainfall is anticipated, and constructing small-scale water reservoirs for livestock in drought-hit regions.
Building local capacity to respond to disasters is a key aspect of community-based adaptations. Community-based disaster response teams could be established to provide immediate assistance during extreme weather events. These teams are often trained in first aid, search and rescue operations, and emergency communication. By empowering local residents with the skills and knowledge needed to respond effectively, communities can reduce the impact of disasters and recover more swiftly.
Effective water management by local communities is crucial in adapting to El Niรฑo induced floods or drought. Communities can implement a range of techniques to manage water resources sustainably the crises. For instance, rainwater harvesting systems could be used to collect and store rainwater during periods of heavy rainfall, ensuring a reliable water supply during dry spells. Additionally, the construction of small-scale reservoirs and check dams could help in regulating water flow and mitigating the risk of floods.
Furthermore, adopting Agroecology as a farming system is a fundamental strategy in coping with the anticipated El Niรฑo. Both Government and local communities should promote and embrace Agroecology respectively because it has been empirically proven to be effective in ensuring agricultural adaptation to climate shocks, particularly in regions facing increased water scarcity or extreme weather events. Agroecological approaches to water management focus on enhancing water-use efficiency, improving soil water retention, and building resilience to both drought and flood conditions.
Moreover, Agroecological approaches emphasize the principles of crop diversification, cultivation of drought-resistant crop varieties and inter-cropping systems, which enhance food security and reduce vulnerability. By cultivating a variety of crops with different growing requirements and resistance to weather extremes, farmers can spread the risk and ensure some level of harvest despite adverse conditions. Traditional knowledge plays a critical role in this adaptation, as indigenous crops often exhibit greater resilience to local climatic variations. Simply, Agroecological farming practices contribute to improved soil health, more efficient resource use, and enhanced overall system resilience towards El Niรฑo induced impacts.
Key to mention, adapting to the impacts of El Niรฑo requires comprehensive economic measures and deployment of various financial instruments. One of the primary tools at the disposal of governments and institutions is the development of robust insurance schemes. These schemes are essential in providing a financial safety net for affected populations, particularly in sectors like agriculture and fisheries, which are highly susceptible to climate variability. By offering insurance against crop failure, livestock loss, and other related disruptions, these schemes help stabilize incomes and sustain livelihoods during and after El Niรฑo events.
A non-negotiable intervention by Government is the provision of livestock feed and health support to foster animal resilience towards the El Niรฑo . Relevant Government ministries and agencies would need to coordinate in ensuring animal health and productivity, especially in livestock hot-spots in the country. To ensure the realisation of this intervention, Government could consider crucial strategies such as livestock disease monitoring, vaccination and treatment, community watering points, distribution of feed and drought-tolerant fodder seed, among others.
We would like to leave you with a question: ๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ง๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ-๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐๐ข๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐จ ๐ฒ๐จ๐ฎ ๐ค๐ง๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐๐ก ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ฉ ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐ก๐ฎ๐ฆ๐๐ง, ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ฅ ๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฅ๐จ๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐งฬ๐จ? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.
