17/05/2026
Zambia’s Energy Outlook Beyond August
There is a lot of talk going around that after August Zambia will go back into serious loadshedding, mostly tied to Kariba and “low water levels” and therefore people should start buying 'solar'.
That narrative is not fully aligned with what the hydrology is actually showing.
This year, rainfall across key catchments feeding our major river systems has been generally better than the previous drought stressed cycle. In simple terms, the inflows into the system are healthier than what people are basing their predictions on. It doesn’t mean everything is perfect, but it also doesn’t support the extreme “we are going dark after August” conclusion.
We also need to be careful with how we interpret the power system. Zambia’s generation is not a single switch at Kariba. It is a combination of water storage levels at key dams, inflows, regional imports, demand growth and other generation sources coming into the mix.
Yes, hydropower is sensitive. Yes, climate variability is real. But the current conditions are not pointing to an automatic deterioration after we cross August.
At the same time, solar should not be framed as a fear-based purchase. It is not just “buy because power will go”. Solar is already a viable energy option on its own. Even in relatively stable periods, it still makes technical and economic sense.
Zambia’s energy outlook beyond August is more stable than the current alarm suggests and solar remains relevant not because of fear, but because the energy system is evolving toward distributed, hybrid solutions.
