17/04/2025
Am I too late to get into Bitcoin?
Every single time we hit an all time high in Bitcoin, I always get a bunch of messages and calls from friends and family asking: am I too late to buy in? Should I wait for a pull back? Bitcoin always crashes so if I wait till then, I can get more BTC for my money.
In theory, this is correct. It's a great strategy. If you have a crystal ball, that is. In which case, I want to be friends. We can buy low, sell high, rinse and repeat. Simple, right?
No. If it was, everyone would be doing it and we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
The simplest thing to do is to just dollar cost average into bitcoin by regularly putting in what you can afford to park, no matter how small, as often as you can, and hold for a minimum of four years. That’s it.
Now notice I said simple and not easy, because while there’s nothing complicated about buying and holding, it can be very difficult for most newbies; the temptation is to try and outsmart the market before they even begin to understand it. Happens all the time.
Chill.
If you’re new, that’s totally cool; accept that you know nothing about this asset class and be willing to learn as much as you can from other people’s mistakes—the biggest of which is usually trying to perfectly time the market.
Just stop.
There are several profound sayings in Bitcoin. One is that everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve. This is so true because Bitcoin is an ego test. In order to embrace it, you must first accept that almost everything you were taught about money and finance was wrong. That’s an insurmountable hurdle for a lot of people. Many would prefer to be broke than admit they were wrong. This is why pride is one of the seven deadly sins.
And the other saying is: time in the market always beats timing the market. The best time to get into bitcoin was in 2009. The second best time is now.
Now? But 100k is the top. I don’t want to buy the top.
You’re not getting it. 100k is the top compared to the last cycle. It’s nowhere near the top of this cycle—much less the cycles after that. So yes, if you plan on trading it, then don’t buy now. Actually, don’t buy ever. Bitcoin is not for you. In fact, I take it back. We can’t be friends. It would be like offering you a single malt and seeing you mix it with Coke.
Bitcoin is a forever asset simply because it’s the only one with a finite supply that is decentralized. So it will continue to appreciate in value as its scarcity increases. Yes it will have huge draw downs and a difficult bear market, but over the last 15 years, there has been no other long term store of value like it on earth. Not gold, not real estate, not oil, not diamonds and not bonds. Why would you want to trade that?
So no. You’re not too late. If it makes you feel any better, everyone that has ever entered Bitcoin felt the same way as you. And I mean everyone. On the contrary, I personally believe that there’s never been a better time to buy, simply because while the price may be at an all time high, the risk is at an all time low.
Think of the price difference that you feel you missed out on as the insurance premium you’re paying for stability and peace of mind. Global adoption has reached escape velocity, and with institutional and sovereign funds now being the largest holders, it has now become the most secure and protected global asset on earth.
And the most encouraging part about all of these milestones is that they were all accomplished under a hostile regulatory regime. Imagine its potential as we enter into the first pro crypto administration, led up by the most brilliant minds from the private sector? It is going to be like going from rowing to sailing. This is a new era, and a very promising one I might add.
So ignore the price. Stack what you can, as often as you can. 500 pesos a week. 100, 1k. 10k. It doesn’t matter. Whatever you can afford to save. Just be consistent. Because while a 100k entry point might seem like you’re too late, think about it like this. Bitcoin’s value lies in the problem it solves. And the world has a quadrillion dollar problem right now.
Bitcoin has captured 2 trillion dollars of that so far. It just overtook silver and the Australian dollar in market cap. It will flip Google this month. And that’s in its first 15 years. Imagine the next 15?
Assuming Bitcoin captures even 10% of the worlds wealth tied up in bonds, treasuries, real estate, currency, gold etc, that’s almost a 50x from here. By that stage, bitcoin will no longer be denominated in Fiat currencies. Wealth will be simply measured in bitcoin. Period.
So stop worrying. You’re not late. Stop looking at the price of bitcoin. If you want a progress meter for where we are, focus solely on how much of the quadrillion dollar problem it has already solved so you can see the bigger picture.
Keep calm and HODL.
