08/06/2024
Tuesday Hazardous Update:
Tropical Storm Debby is currently located over southeast Georgia moving northeastward at 6mph. The center of Debby is forecast to move offshore later today and continue meandering offshore before moving inland over South Carolina Thursday. Debby will bring the potential for life threatening flash-flooding, riverine flooding, storm surge, hazardous marine conditions, gusty winds, and a few tornadoes to much of NC over the next several days. Flood, Storm Surge, Tropical Storm, and Tornado Watches have been issued for portions of NC through Friday.
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding:
• The main concern through the week will be the risk for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and the risk for life-threatening flash flooding, especially across the southeast where catastrophic flash flooding is possible. Rainfall has begun to spread into southeastern NC this morning as the outer most rainbands of Debby move into NC. Rainfall will spread from south to north through Tuesday and Tuesday night, with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall lingering through Friday.
• Storm event totals have continued to trend upward, with the greatest totals forecast across the SE where 10-20” is possible through Friday with locally higher amounts up to 25”. Across central and eastern NC, 4-10” will be possible with localized amounts up to 15”. The greatest rainfall totals are expected along Debby’s track and small shifts in the track of Debby would alter the locations of heaviest rainfall.
• Flood Watches have gone into effect for portions of SE NC this morning and will continue through Friday morning.
• The Flood Watch will expand across eastern NC this afternoon and continue through Friday evening.
• Additional Flood Watches will go into effect for Central NC this morning and continue through Friday evening.
• The greatest rainfall totals today are forecast across the southeast, where the flash flooding threat has been expanded since yesterday across SE NC. A Moderate (Level 3 of 4) to High Risk (Level 4 of 4) is in place for the SE where numerous to widespread flash floods are possible. Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding will be possible across the remainder of central and eastern NC today. High Risk days are dangerous, rare, significant, and impactful, and often indicative of life-threatening flash flooding.
• Heavy rainfall will continue and become more widespread across central and eastern NC Wednesday as Debby continues to slow in forward speed, and the High Risk (level 4 of 4) for widespread flash floods will remain possible across the southeast with the Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) expanding farther north into central and eastern NC.
• Thursday is expected to have the heaviest rainfall and most widespread risk for life threatening flash flooding, with a High Risk (level 4 of 4) for widespread flash floods in place across much of central and eastern NC. Isolated to numerous flash flooding will be possible across the remainder of NC.
• Widespread flooding concerns will remain a risk on Friday, with scattered areas of flash flooding possible across much of NC. While the heaviest rain is forecast to move out of the area by late Friday, lingering showers could continue through the weekend with long duration flooding concerns possible into next week.
• The threat for riverine flooding will increase later this week and weekend across central and eastern NC, with the potential for widespread Minor Flooding with a few gages possibly reaching Moderate and Major Flood Stage.
• A Flood Warning will go into effect late Wednesday for the Lumber River at Lumberton where Minor River Flooding is currently forecast to begin as early as Wednesday afternoon.
Storm Surge/Marine Impacts:
• A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for areas south of Cape Fear where 2-4ft. of inundation AGL will be possible with the greatest concern around times of high tide Wednesday evening through early Friday morning. Additionally, inundation of 1-3 ft. AGL will be possible for areas farther north between Cape Fear and Surf City.
• Potential storm surge could impact roads prone to coastal flooding, as well areas where the shoreline has been weakened from previous storms along the oceanfront.
• Outside of surge, the threat for dangerous rip currents and moderate beach erosion will increase across NC beaches today and linger through the week.
Gusty Winds and Severe Storms:
• Gusty winds will increase over the next few days, especially across the southeast where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Pender, Coastal New Hanover, and Coastal Brunswick. The potential for tropical storm force winds will increase along southern coastal areas Wednesday afternoon and continue through Friday evening.
• The threat for isolated to scattered severe storms capable of producing a few tornadoes will increase across SE NC today and tonight where a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) is in place. A Tornado Watch has been issued until 5PM tonight for Pender, New Hanover, Brunswick, Blanden, and Columbus counties. Tornadoes within tropical systems are typically quick to spin up and offer little lead time. We have already seen a few Tornado Warnings this morning and they will likely continue to be issued across the SE through the day and into tonight.
• The Marginal Risk and threat for a few tornadoes will shift to the southeastern coast on Thursday and across much of eastern NC on Friday. A few tornadoes could remain possible across portions of central and eastern NC on Friday.
• With the potential for severe storms overnight, make sure to have multiple ways to receive alerts.
• The potential for tropical storm force winds will increase across the SE Wednesday and linger through Friday. With slight changes in the forecast track, strong wind gusts may reach portions of the Outer Banks. With saturated soils, gusty winds anticipated from TS Debby will increase the threat for downed trees and power lines.
