02/06/2025
As we approach the midpoint of winter, many wonder what the long-term forecast has to say about winter’s upcoming second half. The weather forecast for the next few days is very accurate even though the forecast has been for snow and very cold temperatures. But what about the next 6 weeks?
Fortunately, Punxsutawney Phil, Seers of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators and Weather-Prophet Extraordinary will, next Sunday, according to legend that dates back hundreds of years, make his forecast for six more weeks of winter or early spring.
According to NOAA the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Phil’s forecast has been correct only about 30% of the time. Since the 1880s records kept by the Punxsutawney Ground Hog Club show that Phil has predicted 108 longer winters and only 21 early spring seasons. Last year he predicted an early spring season.
Historically Groundhog Day has its origins with German immigrants who would select an animal to predict the winter season. If the Hedgehog, later the Groundhog saw its shadow on February 2nd winter would continue. If he did not see his shadow, then spring would come early.
The most popular traditional ceremony for weather prediction is in Punxsutawney, Pa. The first reported news was made by the Punxsutawney Spirit newspaper in 1886. IN 1887 The first Groundhog Day was made official at Gobler’s K**b where those in charge consult with Phil. People have gathered there annually ever since.
Yearly, crowds of as many as 2,000 met to hear Phil’s weather prediction. After the 1993 film Groundhog Day attendance at Gobler’s K**b had risen to as many as 10,000.
Many communities have similar ceremonies featuring a groundhog who predicts the weather. The Ryan family groundhog, Big Shanty Bob, has been predicting the weather for the Bingham, Mt Alton and Lafayette Area for several years. Bob went to his heavenly reward after a summer nibbling on Mt Alton vegetable gardens. He always predicts 6 more weeks of winter because he says in McKean County that is an early spring.
What will Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction be this year?