02/18/2026
What might concern investors is this part of Heather's newsletter:
"Peter Grant of the Wall Street Journal reported today that banks that have loaned money to finance the purchase of commercial real estate are requiring borrowers to pay back tens of billions of dollars as the delinquency rate for such loans has climbed to a high not seen since just after the 2008 financial crisis. About $100 billion in commercial real estate loans that have been packaged into securities will come due this year and probably won’t repay when they should. More than half of the loans are likely headed for foreclosure or liquidation." -excerpt
If you look at the FDIC Quartery report for Arizona and, likely for other states, banks have a high concentration of credit in commercial real estate. If I have time today, I'll find and share the most recent FDIC Quarterly for Arizona. If you recall, the 2008 financial crisis began with the bursting of the residential real estate bubble. Securitized mortgages that were rated AA, A, even BBB were found to contain mortgages that were 60, 120 or more days delinquent, calling into question the quality of the security. Eventually, the banks that were trading in these mortgage-backed securities had to admit they were clueless as to their actual value.
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