08/18/2026
The US debt reached $40T, ahead of schedule. Investors are risk averse to long Treasuries as the latest Treasury auction had to offer a 5.13% yield to attract buyers. This is a reflection of the reckless Federal deficit spending that saw a $2T deficit in FY 2026. Every dollar of the deficit has to be financed with US Treasury bonds. To complicate matters for investors and the general economy, we have a glut of cash. This means selling off Treasuries for cash increases the money supply, pushing the dollar's value down i.e. "inflation". This also means the Federal Reserve cannot rescue the Treasury Bonds by buying them (quantitative easing) because it must buy them with new dollars.
The yield spike also has implications for banks because they are holding US Treasuries as reserves on their loans. The yield spike devalues the bonds they own. Presently, there is virtually no margin requirements on large US banks. They are grossly overextended, as much as 30X. If depositors get skittish and run on their accounts, the banks will be hard pressed to pay them, triggering insolvency. The Fed cannot rescue them with new money as mentioned earlier.
US 30-year yields hit highest level since 2007 as war, oil worries fester -
U.S. 30-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since 2007 on Tuesday as stalled talks to end the U.S.-Iran war and worries of an imminent escalation sent oil prices above $90 a barrel, fanning fears of inflation and jolting markets.