12/23/2025
Europe’s €90B loan is a signal, but it’s sending the wrong one: that Russia can outlast and overpower Ukraine in a war of attrition because Ukraine still isn’t being armed at the level required to win. Ukraine needs significantly more weapons, on the order of $100 to $150B (roughly similar in euros), and it needs them fast, not spread thin over years. Without that level of commitment, Moscow reads the message clearly. If this stays a grinding attrition war, Russia believes it can win, and Europe is not serious about ending the war on Ukrainian terms.
On why some EU states hesitate or hedge: many European capitals can see the political games and half measures. So they fall back to what benefits them, energy, trade, and domestic politics, because they don’t see a unified, unmistakable commitment to Ukraine’s victory. If Europe showed a clear, collective decision to stop Russia and back Ukraine to win, everyone would have to align, because there would be no viable alternative. But when commitment looks conditional and fragmented, countries pursue their own interests, and deterrence weakens.
On peace talks: I’m confident Russia has no real incentive to stop. In this war of attrition, it continues to slowly but surely advance toward its objectives. It will not stop until the battlefield reality is reversed. Until Ukraine is equipped enough to halt Russian advances and impose real costs, there are no conditions for Putin to negotiate in good faith or seriously pursue an acceptable agreement to end the war.
Putin’s “security guarantees” line is the usual script. Translation: Russia is looking for a way to dismantle Ukraine’s military and cut off support, so it can continue its aggression against Ukraine and potentially against other future victims as it sees fit.
Corruption in Ukraine is real, not a hypothetical risk. Ukraine needs a path to replace dysfunctional military and political leadership with leadership that can actually deliver battlefield results and economic performance, strengthening Ukraine as a free, modern, and independent country. That is also why Western support should be structured to reduce leakage and maximize impact. Invest directly with the private sector that can deliver battlefield proven capability the military can use immediately to stop the aggressor.
If you want Ukraine to survive and Europe to be secure, this has to be treated as an urgent defense industrial mobilization problem, not a slow moving budget exercise.