09/25/2026
Good afternoon! I hope this last Friday of September afternoon finds you well. Please see picture of a lovely day.
BLUFs
1. Container Ship Arrivals: 2 Leading indicators both forecast dip in container ship arrivals next 1-2 weeks.
2. In the very short term, a huge 23 container ships are scheduled to arrive in the next 3 days, a big 6 more than would be “normal” for a 3-day period pre-COVID 2018-9 when there were 5.7 container ship arrivals/day (5.7/day * 3 days = 17). A big 10 tomorrow Saturday + 4 on Sunday + big 9 on Monday = 23. Of these, 1 is scheduled anchor, great for safety and air quality.
3. There are 2 significant hurricanes west of Baja California, Odalys and Polo. As it looks now, we might not see too much wind from those storms, however high surf is a high likelihood. Looking at the forecast, we’ll likely start to see high surf around next Monday/Tuesday timeframe. We may end up securing the first row of the Foxtrot and Golf outer anchorages, but for now we’ll continue to keep an eye on things and see how the forecast develops.
DETAILS:
Slide 1: Container ships on the way to LA or LB: Leading indicator of 67.0 Container Ships on the Way per day in September, 68.9/day past 14 days, 70-72/day middle of the month, 67.3/day past 7 days and dipping to 64 today and 65 twice in the past week is leading indicator dip in Container Ship Arrivals to LA and LB next 1-2 weeks. These container ships are checked in with PacMMS and confirmed on the way to LA or LB.
Slide 2:
a. Container ships at a berth: Average 19.3/day in August. Average 22.6/day in September with range of 13-26 and 26 past 2 days.
b. Container ships at anchor: Average 0.8/day anchored since end of backup. Average 0.7/day anchored in August. Average 1.7/day anchored in Sep, range of 0-6, 0 on 8 of 25 days, spike to 6 twice but 0 today. The spikes were for very normal ship reasons (bunkers, hull cleaning, etc.)… no backup.
Slides 3-6: Per our PacMMS Partner, the Marine Exchange of Alaska in Juneau, as of yesterday, Thursday 24 September 2026, 80 Container Ships underway enroute LA/LB/Oakland, 1 fewer than last week. Of the 80, 69 are bound for the ports of LA or LB, 8 fewer than week. The other 11 are bound for Oakland, 4 more than last week.
The New Queuing System for Labor, operated by Pacific Maritime Management Services (PacMMS), remains in effect and provides us with this “Container Ships on the Way” information.
Thankfully, the new system, which was created by industry and is voluntary, worked so well that when the ultimate record of container ship backup was set on 109 on 9 January 2022, only 12 were within 25-40 miles of the ports of LA and LB. The remaining 97 were voluntarily stretched out slow speed steaming across the wide Pacific or patiently loitering outside the Safety and Air Quality Area 50-150 miles offshore. A tremendous example of the innovation of industry and doing the right things right, there remain no issues, and the system continues to operate smoothly, enabled by Pacific Maritime Management Services (PacMMS).
On a day-to-day basis the system gives us advance notice of every container ship coming to LA/LB/Oakland as soon as they leave their last port of call, as much as 16 days in advance, which is good for efficiency and planning, even if there is no backup and ample labor. All container ships are reminded to check in with PacMMS when dropping their last line from their last port of call prior to Los Angeles, Long Beach, or Oakland on the PacMMS web site. PacMMS link below. The PacMMS system and associated Safety and Air Quality Area remain in place (1) in case a backup ever occurs for any reason all container ships already have a CTA which can be used for labor allocation, and (2) on a day-to-day basis, knowing every container ship enroute the ports of LA, LB, and Oakland contribute to greater efficiency of all 3 ports. Container ships continue to be marvelous at checking in and participating in this industry created and completely voluntary system.
The system was expanded to include Oakland on 11 January 2022. PacMMS is a non-profit partnership of the Marine Exchanges of Alaska in Juneau, the San Francisco Bay Region, and Southern California (mine). We're honored to a be a partner. For more info, such as Process Document, Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs), Enrollment, Master Queuing Lists for LA/LB, and Oakland, and more, please see:
(1) The PacMMS web site: http://pacmms.org/
(2) The MX SoCal web site: https://mxsocal.org/
(3) The MX SF web site: https://www.sfmx.org/
Weather forecast: Light to moderate wind through Wednesday night, with one increase to 20 knots Tuesday night, should not impact ship movements, but patchy fog some mornings through Monday might, but recently has not. As mentioned above, we may secure some anchorages if we get high waves/swells due to the hurricanes, but that should not impact ship movements.
Blank Sailings: 1 was added yesterday for a total of 13 through 7 November.
Arrivals to LA and LB as of yesterday 24 September. 300 total arrivals of vessels of all types; exactly even. Of the 300 total, 142 were container ships, 5 more than normal, and as forecast last week and what we are seeing continue over the weekend.
Sincerely,
Captain Kip Louttit and the MX/CG Team