10/23/2025
We're hoping that this will blow out before the block party at 2:00 on Saturday! Fingers crossed!
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT THIS WEEKEND
Good news: Our first significant rainfall event in months will arrive this weekend, likely ending a 45+ day dry streak.
Bad news: Some severe weather will be possible along with flash flooding. The flood threat is likely a little higher BECAUSE OF the unprecedented dry weather we’ve experienced so far this fall season.
Setup: While the humidity is nice and low in Central Texas this (Wednesday) morning, winds will soon flip out of the south with a quick influx of moisture thereafter. That all happens ahead of an impressive mid/upper-level storm swinging in from northwest to southeast. This is the first time this season we’ve been directly in the crosshairs of a storm system like this, albeit much later than usual. We’ll finally have all of the ingredients combining for copious skywater.
Timeline: A few showers will be possible on Thursday with the initial influx of moisture. Scattered showers and an isolated storm will be possible on Friday afternoon with minimal issues. The “main event” swings through after sunset Friday with the heaviest rain likely in the overnight/Saturday morning hours, though some rain will linger through the first half of the day Saturday before we get onto the drier side of this system.
Impacts: Some severe weather will be possible, but the timing of this system should limit anything too crazy from developing. Overnight storm events are typically a bit less intense, but some damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The bigger concern will be locally heavy rain over 3” (among widespread totals ranging between 0.5-2”) that could cause flash flooding in some spots. Most of Central Texas is under a level 2 out of 4 risk for flash flooding between Friday evening and 7 AM Saturday.
The risk for flooding is a bit higher because of the long, brutal drought we’ve found ourselves in. That makes the soil hydrophobic due to the breakdown of organic materials that creates a waxy, semi-waterproof layer that can repel the initial heavy rain that moves in before that layer is broken down and water can more effectively soak into the soil. End result: Faster runoff of water into creeks/streams/rivers than usual.
To be clear, I do NOT expect extreme river flooding like we had in early July. This is not a prolonged tropical rain event. This flooding would be more of an issue to creeks, streams, and some of the usual low-water crossings that can see higher water during heavy rain events. Ain’t nothin’ we don’t usually deal with in any heavy rain event, but it’s worth watching out for nonetheless.
Bottom line: Keep your head on a swivel and stay tuned to forecast updates. Some of your outdoor plans, especially Saturday morning, will need to work around the rain and storms moving through. I’m still out of town at the moment but will keep you updated with any big developments as I see them.
