10/17/2026
NCDA's San Diego Auto Outlook covering registration data and industry insights for the third quarter of 2026 is available online:https://www.ncda.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/San-Diego-Auto-Outlook-Q3-2026-Presented-by-Dealer-Supply-Source.pdf
This month’s report is presented by Dealer Supply Source (www.DealerSupplySource.com), your best source for dealership supplies.
Here are several key facts, trends and developments in the San Diego County new vehicle market:
▪️ Year-to-date results: The market remains below last year, with registrations down 5.9% through the first nine months of 2026 compared to 2025. Comparatively, registrations are down 5.3% throughout California and 4.0% nationwide through Q3. However, this is an improvement over results through Q2, which were down 8.9% in San Diego County.
▪️ Market forecast: New vehicle registrations in San Diego County for all of this year are predicted to fall below 138,000 units and decline 3.8% from 2025.
▪️ Hybrids remain a bright spot: Hybrid vehicles continue to post big gains, with market share reaching 26.1% in Q3 of this year, pushing the YTD share to 24.8%.
▪️ EV market share dips: BEV market share declined from 18.9% in Q2 of this year to 17.4% in Q3, with YTD market share falling from 22.8% in 2025 to 16.9% so far in 2026. High gas prices and California’s MyFirstEV incentive program could nudge sales higher in Q4 if inventory is able to meet demand.
▪️ Used vehicle market improves: The San Diego County used vehicle market improved 2.1% during the first nine months of this year versus a year earlier, compared to the 5.9% drop in the new vehicle market.