08/19/2026
With El Niño conditions developed and strengthening, "flash drought" or the rapid intensification of drought, has started. This will likely support increased wildfire activity into early fall in some parts of the state.
El Niño conditions don’t always produce the same outcome; however, 2015 and 2023, both strong El Niño years, brought periods of rapidly developed drought and increased wildfire activity to parts of the state.
Between July 1 and October 31, 2015, Texas A&M Forest Service responded to 667 wildfires that burned 98,940 acres. During the same period in 2023, we responded to 1,009 wildfires that burned 111,316 acres.
This year is showing some similarities to those previous patterns, with increasing drought and wildfire occurrence. Our Predictive Services department is closely monitoring weather, drought and vegetation, as these trending conditions can change.
Predictive Services - Texas A&M Forest Service