Grainger County Cattleman

06/01/2026

U.S. CATTLE REPORT 📈 Heifer Retention Is Starting, but Not Yet Enough for Meaningful Expansion (Peel) 📈

According to Derrell Peel, the U.S. cattle industry continues to move toward herd rebuilding, but expansion has not fully begun. The cattle industry has historically been characterized by cycles of inventory and prices, with twelve cyclical inventory peaks over the past 129 years, from 1890 to the most recent peak in 2019. These cycles have persisted regardless of whether total cattle inventories were trending higher or lower.

Today, reduced cow culling is providing the strongest indication that liquidation is ending. Beef cow culling has fallen from a peak of 13.2% in 2022 to an estimated 7.1% in 2026, which would be a record-low culling rate. While strong calf prices since 2023 have encouraged producers to retain more heifers, Peel notes that meaningful expansion has yet to occur. As he explains, "heifer slaughter is down simply because there are fewer cattle, but it has not declined enough to indicate substantial heifer retention." The beef replacement heifer inventory increased just 0.9% year-over-year on January 1, suggesting only the earliest stages of retention.

Peel says the best measure of herd rebuilding is total female slaughter—cow and heifer slaughter combined—as a percentage of total cattle slaughter. That percentage peaked at 51.8% in 2023, the highest level since 1985, and has since declined to 48.8%. However, it remains above the 47% threshold that has historically signaled herd expansion. Most of the decline so far has resulted from lower cow slaughter, meaning further progress will depend on greater heifer retention.

Historically, once female slaughter falls below 47%, herd expansion has typically lasted several years. Peel suggests it may take another 6 to 10 months for the industry to reach that level. As rebuilding continues, cattle slaughter and beef production are expected to decline further, tightening supplies and supporting stronger cattle prices. As a result, Peel believes the highest cattle prices of the current cycle are likely still ahead.

05/30/2026

U.S. CATTLE REPORT 🪰⚠️ New World Screwworm Detected Just 31 Miles From U.S. Border, Raising Concerns for Cattle Industry ⚠️

According to Reuters, the USDA confirmed a new detection of New World Screwworm in a six-month-old sheep in Mexico's Coahuila state, just 31 miles from the U.S. border, marking the closest the parasite has come to the United States during the current outbreak. The flesh-eating fly poses a significant threat to the U.S. cattle industry, particularly at a time when the national cattle herd is already at its smallest level in 75 years and beef prices are at record highs.

Female screwworm flies lay eggs in wounds on warm-blooded animals, and the larvae feed on living tissue, potentially killing infected livestock if left untreated. Industry experts warn that an outbreak in the United States could further tighten cattle supplies and increase beef prices. USDA estimates suggest an outbreak could cause as much as $1.8 billion in economic damage to Texas alone.

The U.S. has blocked cattle imports from Mexico for more than a year in an effort to prevent the pest from entering the country. USDA and Mexican officials continue efforts to contain the outbreak, while USDA is investing in sterile fly production facilities, considered the most effective tool for controlling screwworm populations.

05/29/2026

Check out the updated 2026 payment rates for the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP). As drought conditions continue to impact agricultural operations across the country, LFP provides financial assistance for grazing losses due to drought.

View the LFP Eligibility Dashboard to see if your county is eligible https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/3c9aef9fd4684f948e3bb2375b93cfb9

05/28/2026

While we have done well to catch up on rainfall for the month of May, the latest Drought Monitor depicts the big picture. We still have areas of extreme drought in East Tennessee. Even McGhee Tyson Airport, now a moderate drought, is just over 3 inches below average rainfall since March 1 and right at 5 inches below average rainfall since the beginning of the year.

05/26/2026