09/22/2026
U.S. CATTLE REPORT 🔔 Feedlot House of Cards Beginning to Collapse as Feeder Cattle Supplies Tighten
According to Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, the cattle feeding industry is reaching a point where historically low placement and marketing rates will make it increasingly difficult to maintain current feedlot inventories.
The September Cattle on Feed report showed 11.163 million head on feed, up 0.7% from a year ago, despite August placements falling 9.2% and marketings declining 3.3%. Peel says placements and marketings have fallen to record-low levels in the available Cattle on Feed data.
Feedlots have maintained inventories largely by keeping cattle on feed longer. The 12-month average feedlot marketing rate fell to a record-low 14.1% in August, compared with an average of about 16% since 2018. That slowdown has contributed to dramatically heavier cattle. Steer carcass weights increased 23 pounds in 2024, 24 pounds in 2025 and are up another 32 pounds so far in 2026—roughly 75 pounds in just three years.
According to Peel, that strategy is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain. The 2026 calf crop is estimated at 32.5 million head, down 3.79 million from its 2018 cyclical peak. With sharply lower placements in July and August and feeder cattle supplies expected to tighten further into 2027, Peel expects feedlot inventories to soon fall below year-ago levels and remain lower for the foreseeable future.
Mexican cattle imports could provide some additional supply, but increased heifer retention needed to stabilize or rebuild the U.S. cow herd could further tighten the number of cattle available for feedlots.