03/14/2024
In 2023, Arizona's food and beverage posted sales of over $22 billion, marking a 5.8% increase compared to the previous year. However, when adjusted for inflation, sales experienced a slight dip of 1.9%. While this decline in real sales was notable, it's not anticipated to recur. Arizona faced elevated inflation rates in 2023, surpassing many national averages, but recent trends indicate a reversal, with nominal sales growth remaining steady. Looking ahead to 2024, the Arizona Restaurant Association (ARA) projects total restaurant sales to surpass $23.1 billion, with inflation projected to hover below 3%, translating to a real growth rate of 2%.
Throughout 2023, total restaurant employment in Arizona averaged 259,000 workers, marking a notable 3.5% increase from the previous year. Although job growth within the restaurant sector is expected to persist in 2024, it's anticipated to proceed at a slower pace compared to previous years. The ARA forecasts that the restaurant industry will employ an additional 7,800 workers in 2024.
In 2023, restaurants in Arizona disbursed an estimated $7.4 billion in payroll (excluding tips), showcasing a substantial 9.6% surge from 2022, equivalent to approximately $20.2 million per day. The ARA projects total payroll to increase to $7.9 billion in 2024.
The total count of restaurants in Arizona reached an average of 12,151 in 2023, representing a net increase of 556 units from the previous year. Despite the rise in units, the average sales per store saw an uptick from $1.799 million to $1.815 million. Projections from the ARA indicate that Arizona will witness the addition of approximately 540 new restaurant units in 2024, with average per-store sales expected to climb to $1.825 million.
Nationally, the restaurant industry achieved a historic milestone in 2023, surpassing $1 trillion in sales for the first time, marking an 8.6% surge from 2022. Sales growth is anticipated to persist in 2024, albeit at a slightly reduced rate of 5.4%, with projected sales reaching $1.1 trillion.
At the national level, the restaurant industry's employment count rebounded to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, totaling 15.5 million workers, constituting 10% of the total U.S. workforce. The foodservice workforce is anticipated to continue expanding in 2024, although the labor market is expected to remain tight, resulting in a projected growth of 200,000 jobs.