Middle East Forum

10/04/2026

"One of two things is gonna happen. The regime's going to collapse or they're going to make a deal."

MEF Chief Strategist Jim Hanson on the Mario Nawfal Show: with the blockade cutting off its oil revenue, Tehran has little capability left to resist. Watch the full interview and read his analysis at MEF Online: https://www.meforum.org/mef-online/who-is-winning-the-war-with-iran

10/04/2026

Ukraine, outmatched by Russia, blunted a larger military with drones. Michael Rubin argues in MEF Online that Pakistan, whose economy is about a tenth the size of India's, can learn the same lesson.

The next war, he writes, could open with thousands of drones launched at Srinagar, Rajkot or Delhi, possibly by proxy groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. His prescription for New Delhi: drone swarms and counter-drone drones, centers to reverse-engineer captured technology, and a national early-warning app like the one that lets life go on in Kharkiv.

The Time for the Indian Military to Assemble Drone Swarms and the Means to Counter Them Is Now

10/04/2026

One of the top oil and gas producers on earth now has to import jet fuel and petrol. Mehrdad "Marty" Youssefiani, Director of the Middle East Forum's Iran Freedom Project, on Wayne Allyn Root's War Zone Live (Sept. 28, 2026): "The regime, having inherited a massively wealthy country, has driven it to the ground, and the people literally have no food and water." Full interview: https://youtu.be/wlcOORiHxvs

10/04/2026

Iran's regime has now released two handwritten letters attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Potkin Azarmehr argues in MEF Observer that they raise more questions than they settle: one is signed August 1 but appears to record a copy handed over on July 28, and the other, said to date from 1986, is in a markedly different hand.

An Assembly of Experts member adds to the confusion, describing Mojtaba as rescued from rubble after two attacks and in perfect health to take power. There has still been no public appearance.

Two Letters Released by the Regime Are Not the Only Claims About Mojtaba’s Condition That Raise Questions

10/04/2026

Israel dismantled Iran's proxies before it took on Tehran. Hussein Aboubakr Mansour and Blaise Misztal argue in MEF Online that Iran has reversed the playbook, attacking the Arab states that host U.S. forces so that American protection looks like a liability.

The Houthis hold Bab el-Mandeb, Iraqi militias have hit Saudi oil infrastructure, and Riyadh's pact with Pakistan and Turkey did not deter them. Their answer: the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Israel and the UAE fighting together, at once.

Mitigating the Threats from Iran, Yemen, and Iraq Will Require Cooperation Among the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates

10/04/2026

What decides Israel's election? Ashley Perry, advisor to the Middle East Forum's Israel office: the more security dominates the final weeks of the campaign, the better Netanyahu and his bloc will do. Three years on, the country is still psychologically reeling from October 7 and still fighting on multiple fronts. Full episode: https://youtu.be/ovb5pn8SVp8

10/04/2026

Morocco has its first woman prime minister, Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri, and a coalition still to build: her party won 97 of 395 seats. Amine Ayoub argues in MEF Online that the shift will not touch the Abraham Accords, because the king, not the cabinet, holds foreign policy, and the September 16 plan to upgrade to embassies predates her appointment.

He points to water, food security, cybersecurity and apprenticeships as the cooperation that can outlast any government.

As Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri Takes the Helm as Morocco’s First Female Prime Minister, Israel’s Most Resilient North African Alliance Remains Bulletproof

10/03/2026

A third U.S. carrier group is bound for the Middle East, and Axios reports two more Patriot batteries at a Saudi oil facility and a Qatari gas facility, whose leaders lobbied in August against strikes on Iran's energy sites.

In Issue 057 of Middle East Insider, MEF Executive Director Gregg Roman argues that Washington is right to refuse a ceasefire that lifts the blockade before the nuclear question is settled, and that the weeks before the ships arrive are the time to harden the Gulf's energy sites and American bases. Also inside: a fifth tanker strike in Hormuz, Iraq's militia deadline, and a Hamas indictment in New York.

U.S. officials say the Roosevelt is bound for the Middle East, Axios reports two more Patriot batteries at Saudi and Qatari energy sites, and the President says new strikes on Iran are possible after the midterms.

10/03/2026

Australia's Federal Court ruled that a Sydney preacher's lectures on the Jews of Medina were unlawful, and called his views "idiosyncratic." Mark Durie argues in MEF Online that the court leaned on a sentence or two from Al-Azhar's Grand Imam and Yusuf Al-Qaradawi, while their other public statements apply the Koran's charges against Jews to Jews today.

His point: the public deserves to know what influential clerics actually teach. "We cannot prevent what we do not understand."

When Someone Advocates for or Commits a Violent Act in the Name of a Religion, Must They Hold an 'Extremist' View of the Religion, or Could There Be a Problem with the Religion Itself?

10/03/2026

China's base in Djibouti sits 37 miles from Somaliland, a self-governing, pro-Western state that backs Taiwan and Israel. The State Department still blocks cooperation with it.

Michael Rubin argues in MEF Online that the same pattern runs through South Yemen, the Kurds and Afghanistan, and that Washington cannot keep the Red Sea's chokepoints open while it rebuffs the partners who share its values. He calls for recognizing Somaliland and South Yemen.

Goods Will Only Flow Unimpeded Through Strategic Chokepoints When the U.S. Has Partners That Share Its Values