06/13/2026
The History of Economics Society is delighted to announce the winner of this year's Craufurd Goodwin Best Article on the History of Economics Prize.
The Goodwin Award committee – consisting of Katia Caldari (chair), Gary Mongiovi, and Pedro Teixeira – decided to give this year’s award to Daniel Kuehn for his article "Before NBER: Warren Nutter’s Soviet Research at the CIA," published in the Journal of the History of Economic Thought 47(2), 2025.
In this article, Daniel Kuehn focuses on Nutter’s contribution to the study of the Soviet economy and economic growth before becoming director of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in 1954. He explores in detail the period when Nutter was at the CIA as the director of the Economic Capabilities Branch of the CIA’s Office of Research and Reports (ORR) and chairman of the Analysis Subcommittee of the interagency Economic Intelligence Committee.
By using archival material and through a meticulous and detailed analysis, Kuehn reconstructs an important part of Nutter’s intellectual trajectory and sheds new light on his research on the Soviet economy. He shows how the practical challenges of assessing the performance of the Soviet economy led Nutter to confront in innovative ways both the difficulties that structural change poses for the measurement of economic growth, and the limitations of input-output economics as a tool for analyzing structural change. Moreover, through a careful analysis of Nutter’s career in the period 1951-1962 – first at the CIA and then at the NBER – Kuehn brings to light the relationships and interactions between the CIA and the NBER which at that time were mainly concerned with studies and research on the Soviet Union. Kuehn’s paper is very well written, original, and rich; it is a study that addresses an important but largely neglected topic. Based on non-obvious archival material and careful and accurate research, Daniel Kuehn offers us an excellent example of historical research and economic analysis. His paper is a very significant contribution to the history of economic thought.
Previous award winners can be found on the HES website at: https://historyofeconomics.org/awards-and-