11/20/2018
The Marin market is showing remarkable strength going into the traditional slow winter season especially with regard to actual prices of homes sold. More expensive areas like Belvedere, Tiburon and Ross have seen a small retreat in mediun prices sold in the past few months but lower priced areas (comparatively) like Novato, San Rafael etc. continue to show increasing prices of homes sold and the trend line is up. It all comes down to affordability. In lower priced areas the recovery from 2008 meant that some homes are 20-40% higher but that percentage in more expensive areas means the actual increase mounts up to really BIG bucks making their homes unaffordable and prices have slipped a s result. With interest rates higher but relatively stable the higher prices which have far outstripped inflation in southern Marin, are forcing buyers to look further north to San Rafael and Novato to purchase homes they can afford, as the actual increase amount is less as the houses were priced lower to begin with, so our prices feel the upward pressure. It does not hurt that the SMART train has been so successful and now the southern and northern extensions currently under construction make this mode of commute more and more attractive especially given the state of Highway 101 in the morning and even the evening. Residents can hop on a train in Novato and soon will find tthemnselves walking to a boat in Larkspur Landing instead of to a bus in San Rafael. That is going to be a huge saving of time. We are expecting 2019 to reflect a solid market in northen Marin and even into towns north like Petaluma and Cotati due to the train while southern Marin may see a slowdown or at least a slowing of median price growth. For those of us who own homes in Novato this is encouraging news. All we need is a great trade deal with China and we can watch the stock market and our 401(k)s take off too.