The Soufan Center

10/20/2026

Disarmament is more than a security challenge. It’s a political one.

At in Doha, The Soufan Center’s Executive Director moderated “Crossroads: Iran, its Proxies, and the Reshaping of the Middle East,” with panelists , Dr. Inna Rudolf, , and Rami Khouri.

Drawing on research examining 75 historical cases, Clarke highlighted why efforts to disarm armed groups so often fall short.

Visit the link in our bio to watch the full session.

10/20/2026

At in Doha, The Soufan Center’s Senior Director Caroline D. Rose joined H.E. Barbara A. Leaf, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, for a high-level fireside chat on the Middle East’s evolving strategic landscape.

Their discussion explored shifting regional alliances, the challenges of anticipating political change, and lessons from decades of U.S. diplomacy.

📲 Swipe for highlights from their conversation.
🔗 Watch the full session at the link in our bio.

10/20/2026

As alliances shift across the Middle East, the legacy of U.S. intervention continues to shape the region’s security landscape.

During a high-level fireside chat at in Doha, U.S. Ambassador Thomas J. Barrack joined James N Bays of Al Jazeera English to reflect on lessons from past American interventions and their implications for regional security.

Watch the video to hear Barrack’s perspective on the challenges and decisions shaping the region’s future.

Visit the link in our bio to watch the full session.

10/20/2026

: Middle East on Edge as Prospects for Renewed Warfare Increase

Bottom Line Up Front

🔹As prospects for a diplomatic solution fade, regional leaders are bracing for the U.S.-Iran war to resume, with speculation centering on the timing, scope, and intensity of renewed conflict.

🔹Pointing to Iran’s intensification of its attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, global leaders are taking seriously Iran’s threats to preempt renewed U.S. attacks with its expansive missile and drone barrages on regional energy and military sites.

🔹President Trump admits considering use of the largest non-nuclear bomb in the U.S. arsenal — the Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) — against Iran, but experts doubt that another air campaign, no matter its scope or intensity, will compel Iranian leaders to accede to U.S. settlement terms.

🔹U.S. officials are seeking to calm regional and market fears by stressing that no decision on escalation has been made, that diplomatic initiatives remain active, and that some escalatory options are off the table.

https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-october-20/

10/19/2026

A new chapter in Gulf security cooperation may be taking shape.

Following Qatar’s announcement of plans for new regional defense partnerships, The Soufan Center’s Colin P. Clarke joined Al Jazeera English at to discuss the changing role of the United States as a security guarantor and the emergence of new partnerships.

Watch for his perspective on the future of regional alliances within the region.

10/19/2026

As geopolitical tensions rise and traditional alliances face new challenges, how can international partnerships adapt to an increasingly uncertain world?

These questions took center stage on Day 1 of the 2026 Global Security Forum in , where policymakers and security experts examined the future of alliances, intelligence cooperation, and regional stability.

Missed the discussions? Watch the full Day 1 livestream replay on the Global Security Forum's YouTube channel.

🔗 Stream now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7n_OAtEzPJY&t=1s

10/19/2026

: The Emerging Need to Protect Critical Infrastructure and VIPs from Weaponized AI Drone Threats

Bottom Line Up Front

🔹 Generative Artificial Intelligence (GEN-AI), when used for malicious and criminal purposes, is predominately recognized for its analytical, mission planning, and propaganda value.

🔹GEN-AI now also offers coding capability to extremists, terrorists, and insurgents, which provides them with PHY-AI capabilities that can translate into drone (and robot) weaponization.

🔹Weaponized consumer drones can increasingly be created with advanced facial and object targeting capabilities which would allow them to be launched as ‘fire and forget’ weapons directed at CI and VIPs.

🔹A synthesis of C-UAS and C-AI will be required to deter, respond to, and mitigate this emerging threat.

https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-october-19/

10/18/2026

Our highlights the complex security & geopolitical issues shaping regional & international affairs.

This week:
🔹Great power competition fuels Iran’s war effort
🔹Houthi escalation in Yemen
🔹Threat of drones to the U.S.

🔗Read https://mailchi.mp/thesoufancenter/soufan-center-newsletter-saturday-october-17

10/16/2026

: Great Power Competition Fuels Iran’s War Effort

Bottom Line Up Front

🔹 Common interests in weakening U.S. geostrategic dominance are driving Russia and China to provide crucial assistance to Iran’s wartime defense effort.

🔹 Both Moscow and Beijing are calibrating their help for Iran to avoid damaging their multifaceted relations with Washington and with the Arab Gulf states.

🔹 President Trump’s agreement with Russia to put more diesel fuel on global markets reflects the extent to which the Iran and Ukraine wars are intersecting.

🔹 Russian supplies of advanced missile technology to Iran will increase the potential for Iran, as well as its allies — such as the Houthi movement in Yemen — to strike U.S. warships and other key targets.

https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-october-16/

10/15/2026

Escalating tensions in Yemen are raising important questions about Iran's influence over the and the risks of a broader regional confrontation.

Caroline D. Rose joined Al Jazeera Channel - قناة الجزيرة to examine the Houthis' independent strategic calculations, the potential triggers for direct U.S. military intervention, and the security implications of a possible disruption to the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Watch the discussion to explore how these developments could shape U.S. policy and regional maritime security: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WY70hmTi7w

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