The Soufan Center

08/23/2026

Our highlights the complex security & geopolitical issues shaping regional & international affairs.

This week:
🔹 Five years after the fall of Kabul
🔹 Yemen moves closer to full-scale war
🔹 U.S.-Iran deal still elusive

🔗 Read https://mailchi.mp/thesoufancenter/soufan-center-newsletter-saturday-august-22

08/22/2026

Our features TSC publications, announcements, and media highlights.

📰 Read our latest https://mailchi.mp/thesoufancenter/soufan-center-newsletter-saturday-august-22

✉️ Subscribe here https://thesoufancenter.us4.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=3fe77a4916f69c37ee2ac1cbe&id=7efb3bf7f7

08/21/2026

This and Tribute to the Victims of Terrorism, we remember the lives lost, honor survivors, and recognize the families and communities that continue to live with the impact of terrorism.

Their experiences remind us why remembrance matters – and why the lessons of the past must continue to inform how we confront the challenges of the future.

As we approach 25 years since 9/11, we carry the spirit of this year’s theme, “Healing Through Memory,” into the 2026 Global Summit at Ground Zero.

08/21/2026

: Renewed Tensions Between Ethiopia and Tigray Threaten to Draw in the Wider Region

Bottom Line Up Front

🔹 Tensions between the Ethiopian Government’s National Defense Force (ENDF) and the ethno-nationalist Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have escalated in recent weeks, with a drone strike on the city of Mekelle, nestled in the south-east of the Tigray region in Ethiopia, marking the most recent incident.

🔹 While the 2020-2022 Tigray War was disastrous in its own right, a new war between the ENDF and TPLF has the potential to draw in far more external actors than the last conflict.

🔹 While Ethiopian leader Abiy Ahmed continues to vie for access to the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have thrown their weight behind Eritrea, and by extension the TPLF, to counter those ambitions.

🔹 Should hostilities escalate between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and a proxy war ensue, the United States would be forced to navigate a delicate balancing act between competing Gulf partners — partners that it very much needs to collaborate closely with as war with Iran continues.

Read more👇 https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-august-21/

Colin P. Clarke, Ph.D., Clara Broekaert, Nikkie Lyubarsky, Gabriella Tejeda

08/21/2026

"Even if the war ended with a durable ceasefire and political agreement tomorrow, public trust in safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz has been irreparably damaged," writes Senior Director Caroline Rose in a new piece with the Orion Policy Institute.

▶️ Read here

As both the U.S. and Iran have climbed the escalation ladder, the Strait of Hormuz — and with it, international maritime trade and energy markets — has been

08/20/2026

: Yemen Moves Closer to Full-Scale War

Bottom Line Up Front

🔹 The U.S.-Iran war, as well as unresolved grievances from the 2015-22 Yemen war, have fueled escalating clashes between the Iran-backed Houthi movement and forces of the ousted Yemen government, increasing fears of renewed full-scale ground war.

🔹 Houthi attacks on Saudi targets and Saudi-backed Yemeni forces represent an effort to break a longstanding Saudi blockade, provide additional strategic leverage for Iran, and disrupt military preparations by anti-Houthi forces.

🔹 A Saudi military mobilization is likely intended to deter Houthi attacks rather than initiate a major ground offensive against the group’s strongholds on the Red Sea coast.

🔹 The escalating clashes in Yemen are showcasing the contribution of advanced drones to asymmetric warfare in and beyond the region.

Read more👇 https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-august-20/

Colin P. Clarke, Ph.D., Clara Broekaert, Nikkie Lyubarsky, Gabriella Tejeda, Kenneth Katzman

08/20/2026

🇮🇶 | Can the al-Sudani government disarm Iraqi factions?

Executive Director Colin P. Clarke joins Al Jazeera to discuss the disarmament and reintegration of armed factions in Iraq, as well as the influence Iran continues to maintain over these groups.

▶️ Watch

اعتبر المدير التنفيذي لمركز صوفان للدراسات كولين كلارك أن نزع سلاح ...

08/19/2026

World Day is a reminder that conflict shapes not only where aid is needed, but whether it can reach people at all.
 
Insecure transportation routes, rising fuel costs, and funding shortages can delay critical assistance and deepen vulnerabilities in already fragile communities.
 
Today, we’re revisiting our May 7 IntelBrief, which examines how disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz placed additional pressure on humanitarian organizations – including efforts to deliver nutrition assistance to children and pregnant women in .
 
Read the full analysis at the link in our bio.
 

08/19/2026

: Five Years After the Fall of Kabul, Afghanistan Remains a Failed State

Bottom Line Up Front

🔹 This week marks the five-year anniversary of the fall of Kabul to Taliban rule in Afghanistan; the country remains a failed state, still home to terrorist and insurgent groups, characterized by vast human rights abuses, especially regarding girls and women.

🔹 Under Taliban rule, the government has intentionally sought to limit women’s visibility not only in educational and professional spaces, but in public life itself, as well as dismantle legal measures that protect from gender-based violence.

🔹 Just a year after the Taliban’s takeover, the government introduced a ban on drug cultivation that has, in effect promoted a ‘spillover effect’ of drug producers, criminal groups, and armed actors beyond Afghan borders.

🔹 Not only have women and girls suffered under Taliban rule, but Afghanistan as a whole remains a failed state that serves as a sanctuary for transnational terrorist groups and a range of violent extremists.

Read more👇 https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2026-august-19/

Colin P. Clarke, Ph.D., Clara Broekaert, Nikkie Lyubarsky, Gabriella Tejeda,

08/19/2026

: Five Years After the Fall of Kabul, Afghanistan Remains a Failed State

🔗 link in bio