02/20/2026
Oh LordyâŠ3â or 3â?
WEEKEND SNOW? | POSTED: 2/19 4:50PM
Confidence continues to grow that a storm will move across the southern US this weekend and strengthen off the coast on Sunday. The big question now is how much this coastal system interacts with the upper-level low dropping into the Great Lakes. That interaction, or lack of it, will determine whether we see a larger snow threat or just a minor late-weekend nuisance event.
Right now, model guidance remains split. The American model phases the systems together and produces a significant Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Today's run showed 1-3 feet in the Mid-Atlantic! However, that outcome depends on near-perfect timing and upper-level alignment that Iâm *not* fully convinced will occur.
The European model (shown here) keeps the storm mostly offshore but allows enough interaction to form an inverted trough, which could flip rain to a period of wet snow Sunday night with only light accumulations.
There are still many moving pieces in play, including how quickly todayâs rain system exits and strengthens over Atlantic Canada. Believe it or not, that will strongly influence the weekend setup. While a bigger snow event canât be ruled out, itâs not the favored solution right now.
Given that we are 3-4 days out, I wish I could give you a more detailed forecast. However, given our crappy modeling this year and the wide range of possibilities that exist, I simply cannot. With that said, we should have a much clearer picture by tomorrow!
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