The Greater Good

09/23/2026

09/09/2026

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Inform Congress about ideas with agreement from all sides.

09/01/2026

Mid-America Manufacturing Job Gains Continue
Freight Costs and Tariffs Elevate Inflation

OMAHA, Neb. (September 1, 2026) — The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas, moved above growth neutral for the seventh straight month, pointing to solid economic growth in regional manufacturing. This manufacturing expansion is likely to positively impact the broader economy in the months ahead.

Overall Index: The Business Conditions Index, which uses the identical methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and ranges between 0 and 100 with 50.0 representing growth neutral, climbed to 57.1 from 55.7 in July.

“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that regional manufacturing growth continues at a solid pace, but with elevated inflationary pressures at the wholesale level. Approximately, 29% of supply managers reported that tariffs were a prime factor pushing wholesale prices higher,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business.

The Mid-America report is produced independently of the national ISM.

Employment: For only the third time in the past 12 months, the employment index rose above growth neutral. The August hiring index climbed to 54.4 from July’s 51.2.

“Much like the national ISM manufacturing job index, the regional manufacturing job market continues to improve, but at a slow pace. One in five firms detailed additional hiring during the month,” reported Goss.

The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicate that over the past 12 months, the region’s manufacturing sector shed approximately 1,500 (-0.1%) jobs while the nation lost roughly 14,000 (-0.1%) manufacturing jobs during the same period of time. Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma accounted for regional job losses over the past 12 months.

Regional food processing firms shed 7,000 jobs in the region over the past 12 months. Nebraska accounted for 4,100 of the regional food processing job losses over the period.

Other comments from supply managers in August:
“There are plenty of ideas on how AI could improve supply chain activities, but there is still a lack of implementing AI solutions.”
“Business remains exceptionally strong, driven by sustained investment in data center construction.”
“Major suppliers are attempting to raise prices significantly. I predict significant downward corrections in the next 18 months.”
“Finding qualified individuals who want to work is becoming increasingly difficult.”

Wholesale Prices: The August price gauge declined to 69.9 from 71.4 in July.

“Even though Creighton’s regional wholesale price gauge and the national ISM wholesale price index are moving slightly lower, they remain elevated and point to an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve rate-setting committee’s next meetings on September 16-17,” said Goss.

Regarding the prime factors pushing wholesale inflation higher, 36% named materials, 29% indicated tariffs, 21% indicated labor, and the remaining 14% named transportation as top factors pushing prices higher.

Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, as captured by the August Business Confidence Index, sank to 50.1 from 57.7 in July.

“The lack of a U.S./Iran agreement to end the war is having an outsized impact on economic confidence. Oil prices above $85 per barrel and supply blockages at the Strait of Hormuz will push confidence even lower,” said Goss.

Inventories: The August regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, declined to 52.5 from July’s 53.4.

Trade: After 11 straight months of below growth neutral readings, the regional export index climbed to 52.4 from July’s 46.1. As a result of supply bottlenecks, higher input prices and rising transportation costs, supply managers have pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last 14 months. The August import index increased to 47.1 from 44.8 in July.

The index for the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies rose to 60.0 from 59.5 in July. Higher readings indicate slowing delivery speed and/or rising supply chain disruptions/delays.

Other survey components of the August Business Conditions Index were: new orders rose to 59.6 from 59.1 in July, and the production index expanded to 59.1 from July’s 55.3.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Below are the state reports:

Arkansas: The state’s August Business Conditions Index climbed to a solid 57.9 from 57.1 in July. Components from the August survey of supply managers were: new orders at 60.4; production at 59.9; delivery lead time at 60.8; inventories at 63.2; and employment at 55.2. The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicate that over the past 12 months, the state’s manufacturing sector’s employment level was flat with 158,900 jobs.

Iowa: The state’s Business Conditions Index for August declined to 53.4 from July’s 53.6. Components of the overall August index were: new orders at 55.9; production at 55.4; delivery lead time at 56.2; employment at 50.6; and inventories at 48.7. The latest data from the U.S. BLS indicate that over the past 12 months, the state’s manufacturing sector shed 2,100 jobs for a loss of 1.0% of its manufacturing base.

Kansas: The Kansas Business Conditions Index for August rose to 62.3 from 57.0 in July. Components of the leading economic indicators from the monthly survey of supply managers for August were: new orders at 64.8; production at 64.3; delivery lead time at 65.2; employment at 59.6; and inventories at 57.7. The latest data from the U.S. BLS indicate that over the past 12 months, the state’s manufacturing sector gained 800 jobs for 0.5% growth of its manufacturing base. Aircraft and aerospace product manufacturing was the major job gainer with an addition of 1,100 workers over the 12 months.

Minnesota: The August Business Conditions Index for Minnesota expanded to a regional high 75.2 from July’s regional high of 57.9. Components of the overall August index were: new orders at 77.1; production or sales at 77.2; delivery lead time at 78.1; inventories at 70.6; and employment at 72.5. The latest data from the U.S. BLS indicate that over the past 12 months, the state’s manufacturing sector added 8,200 jobs for an additional gain of 2.6% of its manufacturing base. Metal manufacturing was a top gainer, adding 2,100 jobs over the 12 months.

Missouri: The state’s August Business Conditions Index climbed to 57.5 from 54.1 in July. Components of the overall index from the survey of supply managers for August were: new orders at 60.0; production at 59.5; delivery lead time at 60.3; inventories at 52.8; and employment at 54.7. The latest data from the U.S. BLS indicate that over the past 12 months, the state’s manufacturing sector shed 2,800 jobs for a loss of 1.0% of its manufacturing base. Food manufacturing was the big loser, shedding 1,700 jobs over the 12 months.

Nebraska: The state’s August Business Conditions Index sank to 49.6 from 51.1 in July. Components of the index from the monthly survey of supply managers for August were: new orders at 52.1; production at 51.6; delivery lead time at 52.4; inventories at 45.0; and employment at 46.8. The latest data from the U.S. BLS indicate that over the past 12 months, the state’s manufacturing sector dropped 5,000 jobs for a loss of 4.9% of its manufacturing base. The state’s food processing industry was the top job loser, shedding 4,100 jobs over the past 12 months.

North Dakota: The state’s Business Conditions Index for August slumped to a regional low of 46.1, down from July’s 55.0. Components of the overall index for August were: new orders at 48.6; production at 48.1; delivery lead time at 48.9; employment at 43.3; and inventories at 41.5. The latest data from the U.S. BLS indicate that over the past 12 months, the state’s manufacturing sector added 100 jobs for a 0.4% gain of the state’s manufacturing base.

Oklahoma: The state’s Business Conditions Index for August climbed to 60.2 from 54.3 in July. Components of the overall August index were: new orders at 62.8; production at 62.2; delivery lead time at 63.1; inventories at 55.6; and employment at 57.5. The latest data from the U.S. BLS indicate that over the past 12 months, the state’s manufacturing sector shed 400 jobs for a loss of 0.3% of its manufacturing base. Durable goods manufacturers accounted for a significant portion of the jobs lost over the past 12 months.

South Dakota: The August Business Conditions Index for South Dakota expanded to 56.4 from 54.1 in July. Components of the overall August index were: new orders at 58.9; production at 58.4; delivery lead time at 59.3; inventories at 51.8; and employment at 53.7. The latest data from the U.S. BLS indicate that over the past 12 months, the state’s non-durable goods manufacturing sector, including food processors, shed 200 jobs for a loss of 0.5% of its manufacturing base.

Survey results for the month of September will be released on the first business day of October.

Follow Goss on Substack and X.
For historical data and forecasts visit Goss & Associates online.

08/28/2026

This Week in 1776: August 28
THE GREATER GOOD

**The Revolution Nearly Ends in Brooklyn**

Seven weeks after declaring independence, the United States faced an uncomfortable discovery.

Declaring a nation was considerably easier than defending one.

On Aug. 27, 1776, British and American forces fought the Battle of Long Island, also known as the Battle of Brooklyn—the first major battle following the Declaration of Independence and the largest engagement of the Revolutionary War.

It went badly for the Americans.

British Gen. William Howe had landed thousands of British and Hessian troops on Long Island several days earlier. Gen. George Washington knew an attack was coming, but the wooded terrain and several roads through the heights surrounding Brooklyn made it difficult to determine exactly where.

Howe found the weakness.

During the night of Aug. 26, a large British force quietly marched east and then north through the poorly guarded Jamaica Pass. Local Loyalists helped guide them through the unfamiliar terrain.

By morning, British troops were behind the American left flank.

The result was devastating.

American units suddenly found themselves attacked from multiple directions. Some fought desperately to escape encirclement. Others were captured. Hundreds were killed or wounded, and more than 1,000 Americans were taken prisoner.

Among those who distinguished themselves were soldiers of the Maryland Line. A few hundred Marylanders repeatedly attacked a much larger British force near the Old Stone House, helping other Americans escape toward the defenses at Brooklyn Heights.

Watching the fighting, Washington reportedly asked, “Good God! What brave fellows I must this day lose!”

By the evening of Aug. 27, the surviving American army had retreated behind its fortifications at Brooklyn Heights.

And there it was trapped.

The British army stood in front of Washington. Behind him was the East River. British warships controlled the surrounding waters.

The revolution was barely a month old, and a substantial portion of the army defending it was in danger of capture.

Yet Howe did not immediately storm the American defenses.

Perhaps remembering the enormous British casualties suffered while attacking fortified Americans at Bunker Hill the previous year, he chose instead to tighten his siege.

That decision gave Washington something extraordinarily valuable:

Time.

During the next two nights, Washington would make one of the most consequential decisions of his career.

Rather than defend Brooklyn for political pride or sacrifice his army simply to demonstrate resolve, he would abandon the position.

On the night of Aug. 29-30, under remarkable secrecy and aided by favorable weather and fog, Washington's army would cross the East River to Manhattan. Thousands of soldiers, horses, artillery pieces and supplies would escape before the British realized what had happened.

It was not a victory.

It was something the young republic needed even more at that moment: survival.

The episode also revealed something about Washington that would become increasingly important during the war. He could learn from failure.

The Americans could not defeat the British by defending every city, road or hill at any cost. Britain possessed too many soldiers, too much money and overwhelming naval superiority.

Washington's most important responsibility was therefore not always to hold territory.

It was to preserve the army—and with it, the revolution.

That lesson reaches beyond military history.

The men who had signed the Declaration did not create a functioning republic on July 4. They created an extraordinarily ambitious political experiment that would survive only through adaptation, compromise, competent leadership and, occasionally, the willingness to admit that a plan had failed.

On Aug. 27, 1776, the United States suffered a crushing defeat.

But the American experiment did not require its leaders to be infallible.

It required them to recover from being wrong.

08/22/2026

This Week in 1776
THE GREATER GOOD

***The British Come Ashore***

For weeks, Gen. George Washington and his Continental Army had watched the enormous British military force gathering around New York.

On Aug. 22, 1776, the waiting would end.

As this week drew to a close, British Gen. William Howe was preparing to move thousands of troops from Staten Island across the Narrows to Long Island. The invasion would begin the following morning near Gravesend Bay, in what is now Brooklyn.

It was an extraordinary display of military power.

British warships controlled the surrounding waters, while transports carried an army of British regulars and German auxiliaries commonly called Hessians. Eventually, roughly 20,000 troops would be committed to the Long Island campaign.

Against them stood George Washington's far less experienced army.

The strategic importance of New York was obvious. Its magnificent harbor provided Britain with a natural base for the Royal Navy. Control of the Hudson River could potentially divide New England—the heartland of the rebellion—from the colonies farther south.

Washington therefore believed New York had to be defended.

The problem was geography.

His army was scattered among Manhattan, Long Island and positions along the surrounding waterways. British naval superiority allowed Howe to move soldiers relatively quickly while Washington had to anticipate several possible attacks at once.

The Americans had spent months constructing fortifications. On Long Island, troops occupied defensive positions around Brooklyn Heights and along a wooded ridge farther east.

Yet fortifications could not solve Washington's most serious problem.

He didn't know where Howe intended to strike.

The British commander had another advantage: patience.

Howe had no need to rush. He possessed a larger, better-trained army supported by overwhelming naval power. Washington, meanwhile, had to keep thousands of inexperienced soldiers supplied, healthy and ready while uncertainty wore on their nerves.

Conditions inside the American army were troubling. Disease had reduced its effective strength. Discipline remained inconsistent. Many soldiers had never experienced a major battle.

Still, Washington attempted to prepare them for what was coming.

In orders to his troops, he reminded them that they were fighting for something larger than another piece of territory. Only weeks earlier, Congress had declared the colonies independent. The army gathered around New York was now defending a new nation whose continued existence depended largely upon them.

There was also political uncertainty behind British lines.

Adm. Richard Howe, the general's brother, still hoped reconciliation might be possible. The Howe brothers had been given authority to offer pardons to Americans willing to return to British allegiance.

But events had overtaken that possibility.

Congress had declared independence. Americans were no longer asking Parliament to respect their rights as British subjects. They were claiming the right to govern themselves.

That made compromise increasingly difficult.

Throughout the summer, Americans had heard the principles of the Declaration read aloud in public squares and printed in newspapers.

Now those principles were about to encounter bayonets.

On the morning of Aug. 22, British boats would begin carrying troops toward the Long Island shore. Thousands would land with remarkably little opposition and begin moving toward the American defenses.

Within days, Washington would face the largest battle of the Revolutionary War—and one of the greatest crises of his military career.

July had been the month Americans declared that government derived its legitimacy from the consent of the governed.

August was about to pose a considerably harder question:

Could they defend that idea?

08/20/2026

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Because I rely on this fuel to heat my boiler, fireplace, and hot water heater, I will be voting for Initiative 177 come November.

08/16/2026

THIS WEEK IN 1776
The Greater Good

***Washington Waits as the British Tighten the Noose***

By mid-August 1776, Americans had enjoyed more than a month as citizens of a newly declared nation. In New York, however, Gen. George Washington had little opportunity to celebrate.

Across the water from his army stood the largest British expeditionary force yet assembled against the colonies, and it was becoming increasingly clear that the first great test of American independence was about to begin.

British Gen. William Howe had spent weeks gathering troops on Staten Island. His brother, Adm. Richard Howe, commanded a formidable Royal Navy fleet in the surrounding waters. Reinforcements continued arriving, including thousands of German soldiers—most commonly remembered as Hessians—hired by Britain to help suppress the rebellion.

Washington knew an attack was coming.

He did not know where.

The geography surrounding New York presented a defender's nightmare. Washington had to protect Manhattan while also guarding Long Island and the approaches along the Hudson and East rivers. British naval superiority meant Howe could move troops quickly by water, while Washington was forced to divide his considerably smaller force among several possible targets.

That uncertainty became almost as dangerous as the British army itself.

Washington repeatedly warned his soldiers to remain vigilant. Fortifications were strengthened, artillery positioned and troops shifted among defensive works. Yet the Continental Army remained a work in progress. Many soldiers were inexperienced. Disease was widespread. Desertion and expiring enlistments reduced the ranks, while discipline varied considerably from regiment to regiment.

By comparison, the British were professionals.

Many of Howe's soldiers had years of military experience. One of the world's most powerful navies supported them, and an enormous logistical operation centered on New York Harbor supplied them.

Still, the Americans possessed advantages of their own. They were fighting on familiar ground, defending a cause that had become considerably clearer since July 4. They did not necessarily have to destroy the British army. They simply had to remain in the field long enough to make reconquering America prohibitively expensive.

Washington was beginning to understand that distinction, although the lessons necessary to perfect that strategy would come at considerable cost.

Politics continued alongside military preparations.

The Howe brothers still hoped that the overwhelming display of British power might persuade Americans to abandon independence without a prolonged war. They possessed authority to offer pardons, but not to negotiate with the United States as an independent country.

That distinction was now impossible for Congress.

Only weeks earlier, its members had pledged their "lives, fortunes and sacred honor" to independence. Returning to British rule would mean admitting that the Declaration—and perhaps the sacrifices already made at Lexington, Concord and Bunker Hill—had been for nothing.

Neither side had much room left for compromise.

For civilians in New York, the uncertainty was equally unsettling. Families fled the city. Loyalists hoped the arrival of the British would restore royal authority, while supporters of independence feared what would happen if Howe captured the city. Commerce was disrupted, military fortifications transformed familiar landscapes and thousands of soldiers crowded into the region.

Yet for several more days, nothing happened.

That may have been the most unnerving part.

Washington could see the ships. His soldiers could see the British encampments. Everyone understood that an invasion was imminent.

They simply didn't know when it would begin.

The answer would come soon.

Within days, British troops would cross from Staten Island onto Long Island. By the end of August, Washington's inexperienced army would face Howe's professionals in the largest battle of the Revolutionary War.

The Declaration of Independence had been written in Philadelphia.

Now, around New York, Americans were preparing to discover what it might cost to make those words true.