11/12/2025
Here is more information on the potential aurora viewing tonight and some phone settings that might be helpful.
AURORAS TONIGHT: Wow! What a night we had last night around here! To think we could repeat that tonight...or even top it...is crazy to think about. However, a X5.1 Flare that took place yesterday is set to arrive today during midday. Not the worst thing, but this does mean that *IF* current data holds, you will want to be in a dark spot tonight as soon as it is totally dark (say around 6:00 PM)!
A G4 Watch continues for tonight, but there is also a chance G5 conditions occur, according to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. A G5 Watch does not exist, but this 3rd CME is much stronger than the first two we saw last night. The magnetic field has already been disrupted severely from yesterday's two CME impacts.
So, what exactly is leading to such vivid displays? It is not just due to the X-class flares, of which are the strongest. Let's dive into the science! Virtually everyone has handled a magnet at some point. When two bar magnets are brought near each other, they either repel or attract depending on the orientation of their magnetic poles. Earth’s magnetic field functions in a similar way! It can be modeled as a large dipole magnet with a well-defined orientation. The charged particles approaching our planet also possess magnetic moments that determine how they interact with Earth’s field. If the planet’s magnetic orientation opposes that of the incoming particles, most of them will be deflected, likely limiting the geomagnetic activity to around a G4-level, or less, storm. However, if the particles’ magnetic alignment matches the orientation observed last night, conditions could favor a more intense G5-class geomagnetic storm. So, keep in mind it is not a guarantee, but we have a chance. If one thing goes wrong it could throw off alot.
So, how do we see the magnetic orientation? You will want to watch Bz numbers on an aurora app or a site like Space Weather Live! As an additional reminder, we have to monitor the magnetometers. The Kp Index is a 3-hour observed average, and the forecast Kp Index should not solely be relied on for timing. Auroras are quite fickle as many of you noticed last night! I included some smartphone settings! I did find last night that even the portarit mode on an iPhone can be quite stunning if you are in an area with just a small amount of light pollution even. I will keep you updated through the day as I can! - 9:45 AM 11/12/2025dg