Fayette County Skywarn

10/14/2026

Mesoscale Discussion 2374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Ohio...northern Kentucky...and
western West Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 141947Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity through the afternoon into the early evening hours across
portions of southern Ohio and adjacent areas of Kentucky and West
Virginia. The strongest storms may pose a damaging wind threat,
however, the overall severe weather threat is expected to remain too
isolated to warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a remnant MCV moving
eastward across the Ohio Valley is intensifying as it moves into a
modestly unstable airmass. Additionally, storms are developing
along an east-west oriented cold front in southern Ohio. Although
lapse rates are modest and limiting the updraft potential,
deep-layer shear is sufficient to assist with storm organization and
longevity. The storms will move east-southeastward through the
afternoon and evening posing an isolated risk of damaging winds,
especially for storms that cluster and grow upscale. The severe
wind threat is expected to remain too marginal/isolated to warrant a
watch, but convective trends will be monitored.
.Jirak/Guyer.. 10/14/2026

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON 38068505 38638425 39278407 40038411 40098242 40068125
39958068 39708013 39367974 38798001 38358064 37958121
37758211 37758342 38068505

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

10/13/2026

Multiple waves of showers and storms beginning Wednesday late morning and ending Thursday night will bring a chance for heavy rainfall, gusty to damaging winds, and flooding.

A widespread 0.5-1.5 inches of rain is expected. Some localized areas may see 2-4 inches

10/12/2026

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/
THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility one quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, north central, and south central
Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM CDT /11 AM EDT/ this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

10/10/2026

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1200 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026 /1100 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026/
..Gusty Winds Expected Saturday with the Remnants of Hurricane
Isaias...

A period of strong wind gusts are expected on Saturday as the
remnants of Hurricane Isaias move into eastern Kentucky. East-
northeast winds gusting up to 30-40 mph are expected. The
strongest winds are expected from late morning through the
afternoon and should coincide with the arrival of the leading
bands of rain. Once rainfall becomes steady, winds will lighten.
The gusty winds could blow around unsecured outdoor objects and
decor.

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10/08/2026

From NWS Louisville :
The remnants of Hurricane Isaias are still on track to impact Kentucky and southern Indiana this weekend. The expected timing of rain beginning is slightly earlier, with southern Kentucky seeing rain chances increase by midday Saturday. The main area of rain and winds is expected to move through Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with lingering showers expected during the day on Sunday. Overall, many areas should receive at least a half to one and a half inches of rain, with localized areas of over 2" of rain possible. Rainfall amounts should be light enough to keep flooding impacts to a minimum, though there is a low chance for isolated minor flooding.

09/19/2026

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
910 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

KYZ033>036-038>042-045>048-053>057-065>067-190215-
Shelby KY-Fayette KY-Bourbon KY-Larue KY-Franklin KY-Scott KY-
Boyle KY-Taylor KY-Woodford KY-Garrard KY-Spencer KY-Nelson KY-
Anderson KY-Jessamine KY-Marion KY-Henry KY-Lincoln KY-Casey KY-
Mercer KY-Washington KY-Madison KY-
910 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026
..A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NELSON...
NORTHWESTERN GARRARD...BOYLE...SOUTHEASTERN SPENCER...NORTHWESTERN
MADISON...MARION...MERCER...SCOTT...EASTERN SHELBY...NORTHEASTERN
TAYLOR...WASHINGTON...FRANKLIN...WOODFORD...ANDERSON...WEST CENTRAL
BOURBON...NORTHWESTERN CASEY...FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN HENRY...
JESSAMINE...EAST CENTRAL LARUE AND NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES
UNTIL 1015 PM EDT...

At 910 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 11 miles north of Frankfort to 7 miles
west of Lebanon, or extending from 11 miles north of Frankfort to 29
miles northwest of Liberty, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Georgetown, Frankfort, Liberty, Nicholasville, Danville,
Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Harrodsburg and Lebanon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 8566 3799 8516 3843 8510 3839 8490
3836 8487 3834 8479 3836 8473 3830 8444
3828 8444 3828 8435 3770 8446 3726 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 298DEG 22KT 3835 8482 3794 8486 3753 8538

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

09/09/2026

09/06/2026

Diminished Severe Risk for Lexington:

Because the updrafts have decoupled from the cold pool, the threat of severe-caliber straight-line winds (60+ mph) or severe hail has essentially evaporated for Lexington/Fayette County.

Timing & Local Impacts: The leading wind shift will cross northern Fayette County between 10:05 PM and 10:20 PM. Expect a sudden shift to gusty northwesterly winds around 30 to 45 mph, a sharp drop in temperature from the outflow, and a brief period of scattered showers with isolated lightning rather than an organized damaging squall line.

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09/06/2026

This base velocity product (from KILN, looking southwest) reveals several critical dynamics about the storm's wind field:

Outflow Dominance & Cold-Pool Surge

Massive Outbound Arc (Reds): The bright crimson/red arc pushing south through Grant and Pendleton counties indicates winds blowing directly away from the radar

Outrunning the Updrafts: The leading edge of that bright red wind field has surged all the way down to Williamstown, Dry Ridge, and Owenton.

Disconnect from Reflectivity: Comparing this to the previous reflectivity scan, that leading red surge is positioned 5 to 10 miles ahead of the main precipitation cores. The storm has officially become outflow-dominant. The cold pool has uncoupled from the updraft centroids and is plowing forward under its own momentum.

Inbound vs. Outbound Boundary (Green to Red Transition)

Inflow Channel (Green Notch): Notice the pocket of green over Union, Walton, and western Boone County.

Shear Zone: Where that green meets the dark crimson (especially along the Patriot–Verona–Crittenden corridor), there is a sharp wind-shift axis. This marks the trailing wake/wake-low or cyclonic shear flank on the northwest edge of the bowing cold pool.

Downburst / Wind Intensity

Peak Gust Corridor: The hottest red pixels are concentrated between Verona, Glencoe, and Dry Ridge. That corridor is experiencing the strongest downward momentum transfer (estimated radial winds around 45–55+ knots, or roughly 50–65 mph at the surface).

Decaying Eastern Flank: Over near Falmouth, the velocities are noticeably more muted (paler red/brown), confirming that the eastern cell has lost its wind-producing punch.

Direct Implications for Scott & Fayette Counties

Surge Speed: The gust front (the leading edge of that dark red arc near Williamstown) is moving south at roughly 35–40 mph. It is approximately 30 miles north of Lexington.

Lexington Arrival Time: The leading gust front will enter northern Scott County (Georgetown area) around 9:35–9:45 PM and arrive at the northern Fayette County line (I-75 / Iron Works Pike) right around 9:55–10:10 PM.

Impact Profile: Because the outflow has outrun the main convective cores, this system will hit Lexington primarily as a sharp, gusty outflow boundary / shelf cloud:

Expect an abrupt wind shift from the north/northwest with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

The actual severe threat (tornado/hail) is essentially zero now that the storms are undercut.

Blinding rain and lightning will lag 10–15 minutes behind the initial wind shift as the decaying core slides in overhead.

09/06/2026

This 8:48 PM radar scan shows substantial evolution over the past 17 minutes: an active Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect as the system transitions from a cluster into an organized, tandem cold-pool surge pushing directly south toward the Grant/Pendleton county lines.

Northern Cell: Burlington / Florence Warning (Boone & Kenton Co.)

Morphology: The western cell that crossed near Lawrenceburg has surged south across the Ohio River, anchoring a severe warning over Boone and southern Kenton counties.

Bowing Apex: A well-defined bowing segment extends from south of Belleview through Burlington toward Florence/Edgewood.

Outflow Dominance: The heavy 55–60+ dBZ core is concentrated directly over Burlington and CVG Airport. The leading edge (green/yellow shelf cloud signature) is beginning to bulge forward toward Union and Rising Sun. This indicates a descending cold pool driving forward, with straight-line winds (50–60 mph) focused along that apex.

Southern Cell: Walton / Crittenden / Pendleton Warning (I-75 & US-27 Corridor)

Structure: The southern cell has surged through Walton and is pressing hard into northern Grant and Pendleton counties.

Intense Core: Notice the intense, dense red/purple core right over the I-75 corridor near Crittenden, extending eastward toward Highway 17 and Butler.

Leading Flank: The leading edge south of Walton and east toward the Licking River is compressed and sharp, indicative of strong forward-flank downdraft winds and heavy precipitation drag. Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning strikes remain clustered in this core.

Flanking Rain Shield: Notice the green area out ahead toward Falmouth and Dry Ridge—this is light stratiform pre-rain, which is cooling and stabilizing the near-surface air ahead of the storm.

Line Interaction & Dynamics

Cold Pool Merging: The northern segment (Burlington) is trailing just 10–12 miles behind the southern segment (Walton/Crittenden). As the northern storm's cold pool expands southward, it will likely catch and merge with the rear flank of the southern complex.

Storm Mode Shift: When these two pools coalesce, the storm will likely lose any discrete updraft characteristics and consolidate into a broader, continuous squall line / QLCS segment.

Direct Implications for Lexington / Fayette County

Distance: The leading edge near Crittenden is now roughly 45 miles north of Lexington.

Estimated Arrival: Moving south at roughly 35 mph, the leading gust front will enter northern Scott and Harrison counties around 9:30–9:45 PM, reaching northern Fayette County (I-75 / Iron Works Pike area) around 10:00–10:15 PM.

Expectation on Impact: Because the southern boundary is advancing into pre-rain-cooled air and surface nocturnal cooling, it may gradually lose severe-level punch before hitting Lexington proper. However, expect a sharp wind shift with 40–50+ mph gusts, heavy blinding rain, and a significant lightning display as it arrives.