10/09/2026
(See newer update)
THURSDAY NIGHT WEATHER UPDATE OCTOBER
For our Lake-area residents in BOTH Scott and Newton counties. Based on the NHC’s 7 PM advisory and this afternoon’s local alerts.
Isaias is now a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 100 mph. At 7 PM, it was moving northeast at 13 mph, with pressure at 974 mb. More strengthening is expected overnight, with landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday.
NEWTON COUNTY IS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. NWS issued that watch at 4:11 PM today. Since LFD serves residents in both Scott and Newton counties, this is directly relevant to our community. The watch means tropical-storm conditions are possible, not guaranteed. The alert names Newton County; it does not establish a watch for Scott County.
WHAT SHOULD WE WATCH HERE?
Friday into Saturday remains the period of concern for rain and gusty winds. The current official track keeps the center east of our area and shifted slightly farther east this afternoon. The strongest impacts remain favored farther east, but wind and rain do not stop at the edge of the cone or the county line. Posted outlooks list gusts up to 35 mph and rainfall of 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, along with possible localized flooding and outages. That is a posted outlook, not a guaranteed maximum or a forecast for every address. Continue following NWS updates as the storm gets closer. NHC also now specifically includes extreme eastern Mississippi in its discussion of possible damaging inland wind gusts, along with much of central and northern Alabama and parts of Georgia. That is not a prediction of hurricane-force winds throughout Mississippi.
HOW STRONG COULD IT GET?
The latest full forecast, issued at 4 PM, calls for maximum sustained winds near the center of 110 mph early Friday, 100 mph Friday afternoon, and 75 mph early Saturday with the center inland. Tonight’s 7 PM advisory updates current conditions; it does not provide a new track forecast. Those numbers describe the strongest winds near the storm’s center. They are NOT the winds being forecast for Lake. Warm Gulf waters, including a warm eddy along its projected path, are expected to support additional strengthening overnight. Increasing wind shear should cause some weakening as it approaches the coast, but NHC still expects a dangerous hurricane through landfall. Its wind field is expected to expand, and strong gusts can continue inland. Tropical-storm-force winds currently extend outward up to 125 miles from the center. That reach varies around the storm, it is not a uniform circle.
WHAT’S STEERING IT?
The ridge extending from the Bahamas toward Florida and the trough near the northwestern Gulf Coast are steering Isaias northeast, with a northward turn expected Friday. An old frontal boundary is still present tonight across central Florida into the north-central Gulf. It is producing showers and thunderstorms, while high pressure over the southeastern U.S. is contributing to stronger northeast-to-east winds north of it. That boundary is not a protective wall keeping the hurricane away. With the forecast center east of us, our area remains on the western side. The east/right side of a northward-moving hurricane often has greater wind and tornado concerns, but being west of the center does not guarantee no impacts. The cone shows uncertainty in the CENTER’S path, not the entire area affected by weather. A shift of 100 miles can change who gets the worst impacts; that is an example, not a limit on possible changes.
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
Coastal warnings remain unchanged. The Hurricane Warning extends from Ocean Springs to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida. The Storm Surge Warning extends from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River. Potential surge reaches 5-7 feet from Ocean Springs to Indian Pass, including Mobile Bay, if peak surge occurs at high tide. Rainfall of 4-8 inches, locally up to 15, is forecast across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwestern Georgia. Those are regional forecasts, not rainfall totals being promised here. The tornado threat is currently focused on coastal Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwestern Georgia Friday night, then eastern Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle Saturday.
PLEASE USE SOME COMMON SENSE THIS WEEKEND. Secure loose outdoor items, charge phones and battery packs, check flashlights, and make sure alerts can wake you up. Check on neighbors who may need help, especially anyone depending on electrically powered medical equipment. If you depend on said equipment, please contact your supplier and get backups. Do not drive through flooded roads. Report routine power outages to your electric provider, not 911. If there is an immediate threat to life, a fire, or a medical emergency, call 911.
And PLEASE HOLD OFF ON BURNING. We have not had enough rain to make burning a good idea. Rain in the forecast is not rain on the ground, and cooler fall temperatures do not make dry grass safe. With wind in the picture, please just don’t. Enjoy the fall weather without setting your fields, or your neighbor’s, on fire. We are not telling everybody to panic. We are telling residents in both counties to stay informed and be prepared. A watch in part of our service area deserves attention, even with the strongest impacts currently forecast farther east.
The next full NHC update is scheduled for 10 PM.
Assistant Chief Landon Devoter
Lake Fire