The Alabama Storm Alert Center

The Alabama Storm Alert Center Official page of The Alabama Storm Alert Center. Inclement weather prediction, severe weather information, hazardous weather preparation.
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Exclusive Alabama severe weather coverage! Owned/managed by Alex Roberts, an aspiring atmospheric scientist. The Alabama Storm Alert Center (Alabama Storm Alert, alstormalert) provides weather information with regard to all types of inclement weather phenomena including: tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, flash floods, winter storms, hurricanes, and extreme hot/cold weather with special emphasis on

synoptic meteorology, mesoscale meteorology/analysis, and tropical meteorology. Products/packages include: scientifically-rooted forecast discussions, graphical weather outlooks, and LIVE watch/warning coverage serving the ENTIRE state of Alabama. This weather outlet is powered by Alexander L. Roberts, an aspiring operational meteorologist/atmospheric scientist & undergraduate student attending the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). Posts/updates on this page exponentially increase during episodes of impactful weather (e.g., powerful convective scenarios). If you are interested in regularly receiving this weather information, then welcome to alstormalert! It is our primary objective to keep you thoroughly informed & safe. Aspiring atmospheric scientist. Recreational lifter. Interested in thunderstorms, supercells, tornadoes, derechos, tropical convection, mesoscale/boundary-layer meteorology, and pre-convective environments...

Thank you for over 10 years of operations! Your support is truly appreciated. IMPORTANT... The Alabama Storm Alert Center (NGO) is NOT connected to any branch of NOAA or any other government organization.

⚠️ ADDITIONAL SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL: Upon our latest assessments of severe/convective potential, it has been inferred...
06/22/2026

⚠️ ADDITIONAL SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL: Upon our latest assessments of severe/convective potential, it has been inferred that another opportunity for severe thunderstorm occurrence could come into fruition primarily this afternoon and evening throughout portions of northern and central/middle Alabama as another mid-level disturbance and surface front traverse the area! The predominant concern appears to be wind-related, with swaths of damaging winds possible within the strongest thunderstorm complexes. There might be enough low-level spin/shear near the surface/low-level troposphere to briefly sustain an isolated tornado or two across the aforementioned regions, as well. The threat will begin in the north and reach central Alabama later during the afternoon/evening.

Overall, the threat of severe weather, while certainly warrants our attention, does not appear to be particularly substantial; maintain a general sense of weather-awareness during the course of the day (particularly the second-half of the day). All severe/convective potential should conclude by the overnight/nocturnal hours; stronger storms will have a hard time reaching southern Alabama (an organized threat has not been delineated at this time). Additionally, flooding and excessive rainfall could be an issue across the aforementioned areas (north and central/middle Alabama); these thunderstorms will be efficient precipitation generators, though relatively swift storm motions (SMVs) will aid in preventing another significant/widespread flooding event.

That's all that you need to know for this event!
..for those interested, I've attached my findings of the situation below...

📄 ULTRA-ABBREVIATED METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS... Low-level convergence/upward vertical motion for convective initiation/upscaling growth will be driven by a multitude of tropospheric/PBL (e.g., mid-level shortwave protrusion, post-MCS/remnant MCV, convectively-reinforced outflow/frontal forcing, etc.,) that will contribute to one more more longer-lived convective complexes/bowing segments (line-echo wave tendencies); downward transfer of straight-line/non-tornadic wind (in excess of 55-65mph) and transient tornadoes within the leading edge of any matured convective amalgamation could be observed owing to lessening atmospheric stability and environmental interactions w/ remnant MCV. Vertical directional/speed shear could become locally enhanced underneath these conditions, leading to corridors of greater streamwise vorticity ingestion and isolated tornado potential; pre-convective energy begins to wane after sunset with gradual lessening of convective intensity probable through midnight...

‼️ OFF-TOPIC/RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. I encourage you to really think before hitting that share button; carefully assess the information that you are intending to share. Share & subscribe to trustworthy sources only; rely on those that you've always counted on.

🔊 ADDITIONAL OFF-TOPIC MESSAGE: I apologize for the lack of posts/activity on this page. Again, I am college student studying atmospheric science/meteorology (I attend the University of Alabama in Huntsville/UAH), and have been rather busy these last few months. I am placing academics first, though will update the page when I can. Obviously, there are far better and more reliable sources of weather information than me, so I hope that my absence doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. My point is, do not be surprised with my inactivity on here. The summer term has commenced, so time/attention to any convective threat that arises will be somewhat compromised, accordingly.

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorm occurrence is within the realm of possibility this afternoon and evening across north and central Alabama with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes; instances of flash flooding are possible across these areas, as well. Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to inclement weather (whenever I get the chance). If you enjoy receiving these updates, ensure that this page is within your "favorites" so that these posts are prioritized in your feed!


.☈malert...☈obertswx...06:53am CDT 06/22/2026...1153 (UTC) MON 06/22/2026..

⚠️ TORNADO/LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING POTENTIAL: A particularly dangerous flooding situation could be underway; the remna...
06/18/2026

⚠️ TORNADO/LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING POTENTIAL: A particularly dangerous flooding situation could be underway; the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur are forecast to pass over our state TODAY/06-18. This low pressure system will spark a rapid uptake in inclement weather-related activity throughout the daytime and evening hours; thunderstorm bands could generate brief tornadoes and potentially widespread and significant flooding/excessive rainfall as they develop/translate across southern (including coastal) and low-middle into central Alabama. The strongest bands could also produce damaging wind gusts (straight-line/non-tornadic) in excess of 60mph; Alabamians located across the southern and middle portions of the state should maintain a substantial caliber of weather-awareness today, owing to the risk of dangerous flooding (and isolated tornadoes).

A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms could also develop across northern Alabama this afternoon due to separate mesoscale influences. They could periodically generate swaths of strong to damaging wind gusts in excess of 60mph; isolated flooding cannot be ruled out here, as well. The tornado threat is minimal; that's really all that you need to know for now!
..for those interested, I've attached my findings of the situation below...

📄 ABBREVIATED METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS... a surface circulation will drift through the lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South and approach Alabama during the first-half of the period. The system will encourage an increase in the low-level tropospheric wind field; the wind field will phase with the pre-existing tropical airmass (increased surface dew points/theta-e field). Vertical speed/directional wind shear will improve with time; moderate surface-rooted instability should develop (plentiful moisture content throughout the deep-layer.. meager ambient lapse rates.. the classic "tropical sounding" or skew-t/thermodynamic profile). Low-topped convection, including supercells/mesocyclones containing transient tornadoes could occur given the adequate kinematic/thermodynamic parameter space. The strongest convection will migrate along matured convergence zones (model progs indicate that a denser concentration of convective potential could emerge right over southwest through south-central Alabama); training convection and high PWATs (alongside surface saturation) will broadly set the stage for widespread and significant flooding/excessive rainfall issues right over far southern Alabama.. pay very close attention to Flash/Flood Warnings (and Tornado Warnings)...

🔔 REMINDERS: Ensure that family, friends, acquaintances, etc., are thoroughly informed regarding today's inclement weather situation; ensure that your sources of alert information are at the peak of their operational acuity/perfect-working order. Ensure that you have a severe weather safety plan that includes a safe place to take cover (in the event of a tornado-warned storm). Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasting information; stay tuned to our page for comprehensive/complementary updates. You know what to do.

‼️ OFF-TOPIC/RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. I encourage you to really think before hitting that share button; carefully assess the information that you are intending to share. Share & subscribe to trustworthy sources only; rely on those that you've always counted on.

🔊 ADDITIONAL OFF-TOPIC MESSAGE: I apologize for the lack of posts/activity on this page. Again, I am college student studying atmospheric science/meteorology (I attend the University of Alabama in Huntsville/UAH), and have been rather busy these last few months. I am placing academics first, though will update the page when I can. Obviously, there are far better and more reliable sources of weather information than me, so I hope that my absence doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. My point is, do not be surprised with my inactivity on here. The summer term has commenced, so time/attention to any convective threat that arises will be somewhat compromised, accordingly.

📢 IMPORTANT NOTICE: I will not be able to provide live/instantaneous watch/warning information this morning/afternoon as storms move into Alabama; there will likely be no Tornado Warnings posted to this page during the course of this event. Don't ask me why; I simply won't be able to communicate warning information today. As long as you have a working/reliable source of alert information on standby, you'll be all right! Social media, while useful and highly beneficial, should be used as a secondary tool beneath a reliable source (e.g., phone alert).

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: A potentially dangerous flooding scenario could unfold across parts of southern/central Alabama during the daytime/evening hours (TODAY/06-18-26). Isolated tornadoes and strong wind gusts will be possible throughout the aforementioned geographical areas during the period, as well. Additionally, a low-end risk of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts could occur this afternoon across northern Alabama. In short, the entire state of Alabama should maintain a sense of weather-awareness throughout the course of the day/evening.

Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to inclement weather (whenever I get the chance). If you enjoy receiving these updates, ensure that this page is within your "favorites" so that these posts are prioritized in your feed!


.☈malert...☈obertswx...06:46am CDT 06/18/2026...1146 (UTC) THU 06/18/2026..

🌪️ TROPICAL TORNADO/FLOODING POTENTIAL: A tropical disturbance could instigate isolated tornado and perhaps significant ...
06/16/2026

🌪️ TROPICAL TORNADO/FLOODING POTENTIAL: A tropical disturbance could instigate isolated tornado and perhaps significant flooding/excessive rainfall potential across portions of southern and perhaps central Alabama this coming Thursday (06/18) during the daytime and perhaps evening/nocturnal hours. Per usual, there is a reasonable amount of uncertainty with regard to the system's strength and trajectory, which will have a direct effect on the magnitude and spatial extent of such inclement weather hazards.

Enough spin/twisting of air (helicity/inflow-layer vorticity) near the surface/aloft (influenced by the low-level wind field) could encourage low-topped convection; low-level mesocyclones could contain transient/weak tornadoes as they move into parts of south/central Alabama. Downward transfer of convective wind (straight-line, in excess of 40-60mph) is possible, as well (S-C AL). Other non-tropical/diurnal influences could spark some activity during this timeframe (Thursday) across northern Alabama with strong to potentially damaging wind gusts; the tornado threat would be minimal (N AL) underneath this scenario.

In short, Thursday could feature isolated tornadoes, flooding, and strong gusty winds across portions of south (including coastal) into perhaps central Alabama; convective potential further north could primarily be driven by separate mesoscale factors resulting in a low-end risk of strong gusty winds (and a comparatively lower though still existent flooding threat).

‼️ IMPORTANT REMINDERS: Ensure that family, friends, acquaintances, etc., are informed about Thursday's severe weather situation; ensure that your sources of alert information are at the peak of their operational acuity/perfect-working order. Ensure that you have a severe weather safety plan that includes a safe place to take cover (in the event of a tornado-warned storm). Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasting information; stay tuned to our page for comprehensive/complementary updates. You know what to do.

📢 OFF-TOPIC & RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. I encourage you to really think before hitting that share button; carefully assess the information that you are intending to share. Share & subscribe to trustworthy sources only; rely on those that you've always counted on.

🔊 ANOTHER OFF-TOPIC MESSAGE: I apologize for the lack of posts/activity on this page. Again, I am college student studying atmospheric science/meteorology (I attend the University of Alabama in Huntsville/UAH), and have been rather busy these last few months. I am placing academics first, though will update the page when I can. Obviously, there are far better and more reliable sources of weather information than me, so I hope that my absence doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. My point is, do not be surprised with my inactivity on here. The summer term has commenced, so time/attention given to any convective threat that arises will be somewhat compromised, accordingly.

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: A system could encourage an increase in flooding/tornado potential this coming Thursday (06/18/2026) across portions of south and central Alabama. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across northern Alabama as well; the isolated tornado threat will likely be more of an issue across southern Alabama. Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather (whenever I get the chance). If you enjoy receiving these updates, ensure that this page is within your "favorites" to ensure that these posts are prioritized in your feed!


.☈malert...☈obertswx...06:03am CDT 06/16/2026...1103 (UTC) TUE 06/16/2026..

🌪️ LOW-END TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW: A severe weather event is being monitored; isolated severe thunderstorm oc...
05/22/2026

🌪️ LOW-END TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW: A severe weather event is being monitored; isolated severe thunderstorm occurrence is now within the realm of possibility particularly throughout portions of western through northern Alabama as a disturbance (sequence of perturbations) translates throughout our area (tomorrow/05-22). Thunderstorm content will increase throughout the morning and early afternoon hours across portions of these areas; there could be enough energy to sustain a few stronger storms (w/ strong straight-line wind) and enough low-level spin to instigate a few brief tornadoes (during the daytime hours). Tomorrow's threat appears lower-echelon and should remain largely confined to the aforementioned portions of the state (western, northern); check back for updates containing updated forecast packages over the next 12-18 hours. That's really all that you need to know for now!

📢 IMPORTANT REMINDERS: Ensure that family, friends, acquaintances, etc., are informed about tomorrow's severe weather situation; ensure that your sources of alert information are at the peak of their operational acuity/perfect-working order. Ensure that you have a severe weather safety plan that includes a safe place to take cover (in the event of a tornado-warned storm). Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasting information; stay tuned to our page for comprehensive/complementary updates.
..for those interested, I have attached my findings relating the situation below...

📄 ULTRA-CONDENSED METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS... satisfactory/filtered boundary-layer moisture content, ambient lapse rates, and insolation/diurnal heating (encouraging development of surface-based/deep-layer instability) will contribute to a thermodynamically-charged pre-convective environment; increasing low-level wind fields (facilitated by shortwave protrusions), southerly surface wind vectors, and sufficient EBWDs (vertical speed/directional wind shear) will contribute to a proficiently-charged kinematic pre-convective environment. This parameter space (including the main sequence of protrusions) could permit/influence amalgamations of cellular/quasi-discrete convection (w/ short-lived/cyclical rotational tendencies) potentially leading to the incidence of transient tornadogenesis and downward transfer of convective wind (downbursts). The prospect of large hailstones is uncertain; updraft strength will be largely modulated by the quality of surface destabilization. Convective potential should blossom by the mid/late morning; it could persist for several hours (lasting as late as early evening/before sunset).

‼️ OFF-TOPIC & RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. Please think before hitting that share button; thoroughly evaluate the information that you are intending to share.

🔊 ANOTHER OFF-TOPIC MESSAGE: I apologize for the lack of posts/activity on this page. Again, I am college student studying atmospheric science (I attend the University of Alabama in Huntsville/UAH), and have been rather busy these last few months. I am placing academics first, though will update the page when I can. Obviously, there are far better and more reliable sources of weather information than me, so I hope that my absence really doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. My point is, do not be surprised with my inactivity on here. However, the spring semester has concluded, so more time/attention will be given to any convective threat that arises (for the time being).

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of western through north-central Alabama during the course of the late morning/afternoon (TOMORROW/05-22-2026). Brief tornadoes, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hailstones, periodic heavier rainfall, isolated flash flooding, excessive rainfall, and dangerous lightning will be possible in these areas. There is absolutely no guarantee of observing inclement weather.. in fact, most people will not. Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather (whenever I get the chance).


.☈malert...☈obertswx...09:38pm CDT 05/21/2026...0238 (UTC) FRI 05/22/2026..

🌪️ CONCERNING TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL; SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY! A late-season severe weather event is forecast to e...
05/06/2026

🌪️ CONCERNING TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL; SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY! A late-season severe weather event is forecast to eventuate this afternoon and evening (Wednesday/05-06) across portions of central, north, and perhaps southern Alabama as a large-scale storm system works its way through the area. Multiple thunderstorm clusters could traverse the state throughout the course of the day/night; severe weather potential will commence/conclude earlier across the north and later across the south. While all modes of severe weather (damaging wind, large hail, tornado) will be possible, the greatest threat of tornadoes will collocate with the greatest energy-helicity overlap, which could be situated right over west-central through parts of low-middle Alabama. The threat of damaging winds (and large hailstones to a lesser extent) should prove to be comparatively higher than the threat of tornadoes with thunderstorms that move through northern and southern Alabama.

This could be a long-duration convective scenario; again, multiple thunderstorm bands could be observed throughout the period (afternoon, evening, overnight). Some locations, particularly across central/low-middle Alabama, could be impacted more than once. Thunderstorm potential could expand into far southern Alabama (that prospect has been steadily improving, unfortunately) during the late evening/wee hours and persist into fragments of southeastern Alabama after sunrise (tomorrow/Thursday/05-07), though the potential for significant severe thunderstorms will be largely mitigated by then. It's also important to mention that there will be a concerning risk of flash flooding/excessive rainfall that could peak across north-central Alabama beginning this afternoon. Otherwise, the rainfall experienced today will be highly beneficial.

📢 IMPORTANT REMINDERS: Ensure that family, friends, acquaintances, etc., are informed about today's/tomorrow's severe weather situation; ensure that your sources of alert information are at the peak of their operational acuity/perfect-working order. Ensure that you have a severe weather safety plan that includes a safe place to take cover (in the event of a tornado-warned storm). Nocturnal severe thunderstorms can pose a greater threat to life than daytime severe thunderstorms. Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasting information; stay tuned to our page for comprehensive/complementary updates.

📄 ULTRA-CONDENSED METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS... our thinking remains largely unchanged; convective potential will flourish by the afternoon across portions of northern Alabama; the prospect of meaningful surface-based convection will rapidly increase before the evening throughout portions of central Alabama upon the maturation of PBL/tropospheric instability. The kinematic and thermodynamic components of the pre-convective environment could permit/instigate a multitude of convective structures (e.g., supercell, multi-cell/sub-linear, linear) capable of periodically generating all modes of severe weather. A denser concentration of tornado (& overall severe weather) potential could transpire right over west-central into middle Alabama; low-level hodographs indicate greater amounts of streamwise vorticity ingestion across those areas. Convective potential could expand across southern Alabama through the evening/nocturnal period; less influence from the anticyclone with some degree of falling heights/limited inhibition could allow for any pre-existing convective camp to maintain structure/intensity with translation across southeastern Alabama (w/ a continued convective wind risk and/or threat of a transient tornado).

‼️ OFF-TOPIC & RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. Please think before hitting that share button; carefully evaluate the information that you are intending to share.

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of central, north, and even south Alabama today (05/06/2026) during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. All modes of severe weather (damaging wind, large hail, tornado) will be possible; the threat over northern Alabama could feature hail and strong straight-line winds (an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out), the threat over central (& parts of south-central) Alabama is more serious, and could feature all modes of severe weather including a stronger/longer-tracked tornado. Residual/low-end convective potential could make it to far southern/southeastern Alabama before (or by) sunrise and pose some risk of a strong to damaging wind gust and maybe a brief tornado. Take this as an indication that meteorological spring (and our main tornado/severe weather season) continues (we're now in early May; it will wrap up soon, however). Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather (whenever I get the chance).


.☈malert...☈obertswx...03:46am CDT 05/06/2026...0846 (UTC) WED 05/06/2026..

🌪️ CONCERNING TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL; SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW! A more-concerning convective setup now looms t...
05/06/2026

🌪️ CONCERNING TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL; SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW! A more-concerning convective setup now looms the state tomorrow/Wednesday (05/06/2026) by the late afternoon; convective potential will expand south and eastward throughout the evening/nocturnal hours from northern Alabama & into portions of central/low-middle Alabama. All severe/convective hazard types will be present (damaging winds, large hailstones, tornadoes); the threat of severe weather (& tornadoes) will increase with time and could peak across parts of west-central through perhaps middle Alabama (e.g., Tuscaloosa to Birmingham).

Thunderstorm presence could be observed tomorrow afternoon across northern Alabama; convective potential will expand southeastward with time and reach central/middle Alabama by the evening; the cumulative threat magnitude will increase with time and could peak by the middle to later evening hours right over the west-central sub-regions of the state. Convective potential will continue during the wee hours as storms travel across low-middle (& what could be considered as southern) Alabama, though convective intensity will be lessening by this point. A marginal & sparse risk of severe thunderstorms could continue after sunrise (Thursday/05-07) across parts of far southern into southeastern Alabama prior to the system making its grand exit.

📢 IMPORTANT REMINDERS: Ensure that family, friends, acquaintances, etc., are informed about tomorrow's severe weather situation; ensure that your sources of alert information are at the peak of their operational acuity/perfect-working order. Ensure that you have a severe weather safety plan that includes a safe place to take cover (in the case of a tornado-warned storm). Nocturnal severe thunderstorms can pose a greater threat to life than daytime severe thunderstorms. Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasting information; stay tuned to our page for comprehensive/complementary updates; I've attached my latest analysis below (for those who care).

📄 CONDENSED METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS... a clear and steady signaling for organized and potentially dangerous convective potential has been identified; severe thunderstorms will become likely over portions of central through perhaps northern Alabama by the late afternoon/early evening. A mid/upper-level trough will swing out of the plains, encouraging height/pressure falls, divergence/diffluence aloft (denoted by a large area of positive cyclonic vorticity) across the lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South. A reservoir of maritime tropical pre-convective air will be engrained preceding a surface cold front driven by southwesterly low-level moist/warm-air advection; this will aid in PBL destabilization as theta-e/CAPE fields (SBCAPE, MLCAPE, MUCAPE) increase. The pre-convective environment/forcing for deep-layer ascent (& eroding convective inhibition) could initially bias towards a mixed storm mode across parts of north-central Mississippi/Alabama, with multi-cell clusters, quasi-discrete supercell updrafts, and even storm-splitting regimes (in the wake of an initially more-unidirectional low-level hodograph regime & crosswise component to the horizontal vorticity).

Vertical speed/directional shear could increase towards sunset as the low-level jet increases; a more-concerning supercell-tornado threat could emerge across parts of central Mississippi and western/central Alabama during this time (facilitated by the resultant increase in streamwise vorticity alongside a more-oblique/orthogonal characteristic to the 0-6km shear vector in relation to the positively-oriented frontal boundary). As time advances, pre-convective energy will start to dwindle, though will remain sufficient in permitting severe thunderstorms throughout the wee hours. Surface wind vectors will once again veer (clockwise turning w/ time) after midnight, limiting vertical directional shear while pre-existing convection potentially amalgamates into one or more linear clusters (potential MCS w/ trailing stratiform shield) in the wake of the southeastward-translating surface front and enhanced surface convergence/convective outflow. Downward momentum/transfer of convective wind (potentially approaching 60mph) and perhaps a transient tornado could continue through sunrise across Alabama's low-middle and southern counties prior to storms weakening/moving off into Georgia/Florida; storms could struggle as they move towards southeastern Alabama where interactions from the upper ridge/anticyclonic flow centered to the south could occur (updraft modulation/mitigation). Upward vertical motion becomes impeded (upper support is lost, CINH increases); threat should return to zero by 18z/01p (THU).

‼️ OFF-TOPIC & RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. Please think before hitting that share button; carefully evaluate the information that you are intending to share.

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of central and northern Alabama tomorrow during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. All modes of severe weather (damaging wind, large hail, tornado) will be possible; the threat over northern Alabama could feature large hail and damaging winds (an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out), the threat over central Alabama is more serious, and could feature all modes of severe weather including a stronger/longer-tracked tornado. Residual/low-end convective potential could make it to southern Alabama before (or by) sunrise and pose some risk of a strong to damaging wind gust and maybe a brief tornado. Take this as an indication that meteorological spring (and our main tornado/severe weather season) continues (we're now in early May). Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather (whenever I get the chance).


.☈malert...☈obertswx...07:13pm CDT 05/05/2026...0013 (UTC) WED 05/06/2026..

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