09/01/2019
HURRICANE DORIAN: REVISED SCENARIOS
Yikes. Hurricane Dorian, Category 5 with 185 mph winds and gusts over 200 mph, is the strongest hurricane in modern records to move through the northwestern Bahamas! Absolutely devastating.
So what’s next? We still expect the storm’s forward motion to slow or even stall the next 24-36 hours, then resume north. It will reach our latitude in GA/SC on Wednesday. How far east/west the center passes will make a huge difference in what we see.
Here’s the thing, even a reasonable margin of error 3 days out is larger than the distance will likely be between us getting largely spared and seeing hurricane conditions with this storm. Knowing this would be the case, I have urged everyone to get supplies and have plans ready. Waiting for forecast certainty is waiting too long.
On Friday, I posted 3 possible scenarios and said by the end of the weekend, we should be able to start narrowing it down a bit. And we’ve done just yet. The Gulf of Mexico scenario now looks very unlikely. That leaves the inland track scenario and the offshore track scenario. The original offshore track scenario has simply been divided into the new 2 and 3 below.
While I can’t completely rule out scenario 1 (inland) below, it’s looking more and more like it’s going to be 2 or 3. That means while yes, we could be spared, we are getting far too close for you NOT to be prepared for hurricane conditions, especially along the coast.
I REPEAT: Be prepared for hurricane conditions on Wednesday. It would be irresponsible of me not to suggest that even though, yes, it’s possible the storm track is far enough east that our impacts end up being minor. We are obviously all hoping for that and I’m at least glad it is a possibility. But it’s not the only one. Prepare for the worst-case scenario. It can’t hurt.
Yes, I know some of you will say “so the forecast is either we get a hurricane or we don’t. Must be great to have a job where you can just guess.” Well, sorry, it’s not guessing. It’s just not possible on Sunday to guarantee the forecast within 20-30 miles for Wednesday and that’s what it could come down to. I hope that makes sense.
Also please know I’m doing my best to respond to everyone who reaches out to me. I apologize if I haven’t personally responded to everyone. Doing my best. We’re inside the 48 hour window tomorrow. More and more questions will be answered. Thanks for staying with me on this!
