08/27/2026
We are still not out of the woods yet with this ongoing drought. Please pray for rain ππ₯
The Texas Fire Potential Update is posted at: https://bit.ly/TexasFirePotentialUpdate.
The fire environment is undergoing a temporary improvement in fuel moisture and decreased fire weather; however, conditions will degrade Sunday into next week with the return of triple digit heat, critically dry surface fuels, and increased wind speeds.
On Thursday, a weak cold front will gradually move south through Texas, generating chances for precipitation and cloud cover, which will temporarily pause fuel drying and fire weather. The front could generate high-based isolated storms which could produce gusty outflow winds and lightning ignitions where underlying dryness remains across North Texas, Cross Timbers, Rolling Plains, Western and Eastern Hill Country, and Central Texas. Dry fuels and elevated fire weather in South Texas will create moderate potential for initial attack fires.
Friday, the weak cold front will lift out of Texas and precipitation chances will end. On Saturday high pressure builds back over Texas, and a tightening gradient will generate winds 15-20 mph across the High Plains. Initial attack potential will remain moderate in East Texas due to underlying dryness and dry surface fuel. Resistance to control should remain low to moderate with lack of significant fire weather trigger.
Next week above-normal temperatures and dry weather will increase the volume of fires. A quick rebound to extremely dry fuels and elevated fire weather could return the potential for significant fires in high-risk fuels in the Rolling Plains, Cross Timbers, and Eastern Hill Country fuels beginning Sunday and persisting next week.