Gulf Coast Weather Updates

08/31/2026

Update: Plane will fly in at 6 PM CDT.
Important to note. These small/compact tropical systems are very hard to estimate their intensity off of satellite alone. Planes flying in will be very important. Even the Dvorak technique doesn't do well.
For example, here is 2007 Hurricane Humberto's lackluster infrared presentation at landfall. Would never guess you were looking at a solid category 1 hurricane.

08/31/2026

Monday, August 31, 202
Edouard Coming To NW Gulf, Dolly Almost Gone

Of course the big news is NHC began issuing advisories on soon to be Tropical Storm Edouard south of the Louisiana coast. Recon aircraft could not find a well defined center, but satellite & radar loops are indicating a rotation so NHC decided to call it PTC (Potential Tropical cyclone) FIVE so watches & warnings could be issued for the upper Texas & SW Louisiana coasts. It is a very small & compact circulation with little impacts for us except some occasional squally rain showers. Despite the fact it's closer to us than Houston, an upper heat Dome will force it to slowly drift towards Texas. Link in comments. 👇

08/31/2026

08/31/2026

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Invest 97-L Not Moving Much, Models All Take It To Texas.

Just got back from a wonderful concert in Kenner Rivertown tonight. Looking at satellite and radar loops show me Invest 97-L in about the same place as it was this afternoon. Not sure what that means since all model tracks take it to Texas. Let's begin with the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook which has increased chances for development up to 70%. Link in comments. 👇

08/30/2026

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Edouard Coming To NW Gulf? Dolly Not Done Yet?

Since we remain in the unfavorable (sinking air) phase of the MJO, I'm not expecting any rapid development of the two systems NHC is watching. They do believe the closed circulation down south of Grand Isle will become a Tropical Depression or Storm (Edouard) before it reaches the upper Texas Coast on Tuesday. Perhaps you've noticed the increase in winds over us today? Something is slowly developing down in the Gulf where buoys show we have west winds and a circulation. Link in comments. 👇

08/30/2026

08/30/2026

08/29/2026

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Dolly Making Comeback? Pay Attention Northern Gulf

This is a special midday Saturday post based on what I'm seeing on Satellite views and information from NHC. On my Thursday blog post, I mentioned 3 separate swirls/lows that were visible inland along the northern Gulf coast. Yesterday I mentioned one of those lows moved offshore south of Pensacola. On their 8 PM TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) last night, NHC began highlighting an area over the northern Gulf for possible development giving it a low chance (10%). Link in comments. 👇