03/15/2025
Ohio has experienced an historic 34% drop in overdose deaths in 2024, as explained in a yesterday's post. Several readers asked about what's happened in specific counties. At the county level, the preliminary data is a little bumpier, so preliminary estimates are a little less precise. That said, the historic drop in overdose death is so large and broad that even preliminary estimates for counties are profoundly informative.
On the downside, nine of Ohio's 88 counties had increases in overdose deaths in 2024. Those counties are: Carroll, Hardin, Highland, Logan, Meigs, Muskingum, Ottawa, Portage and Richland. Most are small counties that suffer relatively few overdose deaths and have a lot of year-to-year variance. However, Highland, Muskingum, Portage and Richland are mid-sized counties. It is disappointing they have not yet had declines in overdose deaths seen elsewhere.
The good news is that, based on preliminary estimates, all of Ohio's bigger counties (defined as having 100 or more overdose deaths in 2023) had significant drops in overdose deaths. Preliminary 2024 overdose death estimates for those counties, listed alphabetically, are:
* Butler County (biggest city: Hamilton): 89 overdose deaths, a decline of 39.0% from 2023
* Cuyahoga (Cleveland): 336, -38.9%
* Franklin (Columbus): 467, -33.4%
* Hamilton (Cincinnati): 198, -36.1%
* Lorain (Lorain): 65, -45.4%
* Lucas (Toledo): 172, -24.2%
* Mahoning (Youngstown): 100, -29.1%
* Montgomery (Dayton): 170, -37.0%
* Stark (Canton): 109, -30.1%
* Summit (Akron): 132, -38.9%
* Trumbull (Warren): 67, -46.0%
Scioto (Portsmouth) is another important county. It has had Ohio's worst overdose death rate over the last decade. Scioto County is on track to have 48 overdose deaths in 2024, a 40.7% decline from 2023.
The above overdose death estimates for counties may vary slightly from the final number reported in October 2025. But you get the point: Ohio -- and probably the whole country -- is experiencing a big and swift decline in overdose death. There's been nothing like this in the modern era (i.e., since Oxycontin). The change is even larger than the big drop that occurred in late 2017 and 2018. Overdose deaths fell then because ultra-dangerous carfentanil had flooded Ohio's drug supply in the second half of 2016 and the first half of 2017 -- and then quickly, for reasons that are still not clear, fell to extremely low levels.
What's driving Ohio's big decline in overdose death now? The answer is clear: Fentanyl's presence has declined dramatically in the illicit drug supply in Ohio (and likely elsewhere). An academic journal article (of which I was co-author) found that fentanyl and its analogs were 9x more lethal than he**in or co***ne. The "lethality index" for m**h is likely similar. Drugs people are consuming today are safer and less likely to cause sudden, accidental death than drugs consumed from 2015 to 2023. He**in without fentanyl is safer than he**in with fentanyl -- or fentanyl alone. Ditto co***ne. Ditto m**h. Ditto benzos.
In a follow-up article on this page, I will detail how the composition of Ohio's drug supply has changed in the last 18 months and explain the relationship of that change to overdose death. Unfortunately, the lethality of what's in our illicit drug supply is largely governed by market forces outside our control. In an era of drug prohibition, even our federal, state or local governments have limited ability to influence the safety of unregulated consumer drug markets.
Fentanyl's presence and overdose death rates started falling in the summer of 2023; the drop sped up noticeably in the second half of 2024. We should be cautiously optimistic that overdose deaths will fall even more in 2025. However, nothing is certain. It's hard making predictions, especially about the future.
For context, we should not accept 2,900+ overdose deaths in a year in Ohio as a "success." A return to "normal" -- that is, before Oxycontin changed everything -- would means overdose deaths fall to less than 1,000 per year. It can happen, and maybe faster than expected. What goes up can come down. The overdose epidemic is still underway; it's intensity has receded in the last 18 months. I don't know anyone, including myself, who predicted a 34% drop in overdose deaths in Ohio in 2024. This change means fewer deaths, fewer orphans, more happiness. For now, we should be grateful for the trend, even if our goal remains distant.
-- Dennis Cauchon, Founder-President-Board Member, Harm Reduction Ohio