04/02/2025
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY!
Issued
03:26Z Wed, Apr 2 (4/2 3:26 AM EDT)
Valid
08Z Wed, Apr 2 - 08Z Thu, Apr 3 (4/3 8:00 AM EDT)
Forecaster
Avery Schronce/Michael Foland.THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF MS/TN VALLEY.THERE IS A MDT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF OH/TN VALLEY BACK INTO MS RIVER VALLEY.THERE IS AN ENH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF OH/TN VALLEY BACK INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.THERE IS A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEY BACK TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
≤...NATIONAL SYNOPSIS../02-0610z...≥
A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE
PERIOD. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST
BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SOUTH AND
WEST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF STATES.
≤...DISCUSSION...≥
..HIGH RISK.../ SOUTHERN IN/IL TO SE OK & NE TX...
.SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY TODAY
AS OF 0640Z THIS MORNING...MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR THE THREAT OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OH/TN VALLEY SOUTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WHERE ALL MODOES OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE W/ THE THREAT OF A FEW LONG-LIVED, LONG-TRACKED
TORNADOES.
THE LATEST GUIDANCES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE N/NE OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GULF
OF AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION W/ A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO
SURGE INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO MID-60S ALL
THE WAY TO THE MI/OH BORDERS ALONG LAKE ERIE. RAPID DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED W/ SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RUNNING
BETWEEN 2500 J/KG TO 3500 J/KG. THIS IN COMBINATION W/ BULK 0-6 KM SHEAR
UPWARD OF 80 KT TO 95 KT W/ LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -9 AND STEEPENING
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5°C/KM TO 9.0°C/KM WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
80 TO POTENTIALLY 85 MPH W/ POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO 3.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER. 0- 6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH AS 95 KT ALONG
WITH CURVED HODOGRAPHS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
TORNADOES W/ A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES THAT COULD BE LONG-LIVED AND LONG--
TRACKED.
..MODERATE RISK.../ SOUTHERN OH SOUTH & WEST TO EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
IS ASSOCIATED W/ A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE N/NE ALONG AND HEAD OF THIS FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC BACK INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY 12Z ON THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1500 J/KG TO 2500 J/KG. THIS IN COMBINATION W/0- 6 KM SHEAR OF 60 TO 75 KT ALONG W/ LIFTEND INDEX VALUES OF -7 TO -9 WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL, WITH HAIL UP TO 2.0 TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE.
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS REGION. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL POSE A HIGHER RISK FOR TORNADOES, AND ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
..ENHANCED RISK.../ NORTHERN OH SOUTH AND WEST TO NORTHEAST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH AND WEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WITH ALL THREATS POSSIBLE.
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE ENH REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME DESTABILIZED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT W/ SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG TO AT OR AROUND 2250 J/KG. THIS W/ LIFTEN INDEX VALUES OF -6 TO -8 AND INCREASING 0-6 KM
WIND SHEAR TO AROUND 60-70 KT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OF 7.0°C/KM TO 7.5°C/KM WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER BEING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN STORMS W/ STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
INCREASING 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES
ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
..SLIGHT RISK.../ NORTHERN OH SOUTH AND WEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL TX
THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION W/ A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO EASTERN TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
INCREASING WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION OF 60-70 KT, IN COMBINATION W/ SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1250 J/KG TO 2200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -6 TO
-8 AND STEEPING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH, LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
..PROBABILITY TABLE.....TORNADO...30% SIG.....HAIL...30% SIG.....WIND...30% SIG...
Stay tuned to www.usaweather.org for more information and updates!
https://www.usaweather.org/division/severe/outlook/1
