04/14/2026
What’s happening with our water this year? Here’s the breakdown:
The Upper Bear Basin is experiencing record-low snowpack (snow water equivalent, or SWE), a key measure of how much water is stored in the snowpack and released during spring melt.
While we’ve seen low years before (like 1992 and 2015), 2026 stands out because:
March temperatures were 5–8° warmer on average, with highs nearly 10° higher
That heat caused a rapid early melt, reducing the water available for spring runoff
So what does this mean?
💧 Less snowpack = less streamflow
Current forecasts show Bear River flows at 30–50% of average for the upcoming months.
🌧️ Rain ≠ snowmelt
Even though total precipitation is near average, rainfall doesn’t provide the same slow, sustained water supply that snowpack does.
🏞️ Reservoirs are helping for now
Stored water is buffering the impact, but some reservoirs are already sitting well below capacity.
📉 Looking ahead
Warmer, drier conditions are expected to continue, meaning we’re unlikely to recover much of this deficit.
💙 Bear Lake outlook
Lake levels may not rise much this year, BUT the lake will still be beautifully blue.