10/11/2026
SEVERE WEATHER AND TORNADO RISK TUESDAY FOR TEXAS, OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS ⛈️🚨🌪️a developing severe weather setup is expected across parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday, October 13, continuing into Tuesday night, with the potential for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes!
The Storm Prediction Center has already outlined a Level 2 out of 5 risk for parts of the Central and Southern High Plains, including areas of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and southwestern Kansas. The severe weather risk area could expand as forecast confidence increases.
A strengthening storm system over the western United States will help develop an area of low pressure over southeastern Colorado. Meanwhile, increasing southerly winds will transport Gulf moisture northward into Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Afternoon heating, combined with dewpoints reaching the 60s and lower 70s, will create an increasingly unstable atmosphere.
Storms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially across southwestern Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and the Texas Panhandle. Strong wind shear could support rotating supercell thunderstorms, with large hail initially representing one of the primary risks.
The tornado risk could increase Tuesday evening as winds strengthen closer to the surface. Any supercells that remain isolated could become capable of producing tornadoes, particularly across portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. The exact magnitude and placement of the tornado threat remain uncertain.
As storms increase in coverage Tuesday evening and Tuesday night, some storms could merge into organized clusters or lines. This would increase the potential for damaging straight-line winds, with the threat possibly spreading farther east into portions of Oklahoma and Kansas.
Rotating supercells could produce large hail, especially during the initial stages of thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The greatest confidence in organized severe weather currently extends from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into southwestern Kansas. However, parts of western and central Oklahoma, northwestern Texas, and additional areas of southern Kansas will need to monitor forecast updates as the storm system evolves⛈️🚨🌪️
