11/30/2025
The opponents of the Transportation bill claim ODOT “lost” a billion dollars.
The truth? They didn’t. So, read on if you'd like to understand what really went down.
The simple version doesn’t require insider knowledge: The money was never there.
Every two years, ODOT forecasts how much money they will need to build, fix and maintain roads. They come to the legislature and ask for that amount of money.
Now, some of the money is from the State of Oregon--think gas tax, fees, weight-mile taxes, DMV, bus fares, etc. And, some of it (billions actually), comes from the Federal government.
It's important to understand a basic rule about transportation money. And that is this: federal dollars cannot be spend on maintenance and operations. They must be matched with state dollars, and they can only be spent on big expensive road and bridge projects.
Ok, so what happened? Well, in 2023, ODOT came to the legislature to ask for their spending allowance for the next two years. The problem is ODOT used a 20-year old forecasting model, and it "assumed" Oregon would get about $1.1 billion more in federal project dollars than the state was ever going to receive.
That’s a bad forecast, but it's not missing cash, it's not shady spending, and it's not a slush fund that vanished.
And, here is why bad forecasting is a billion dollar problem.
Once those numbers were baked into the work plan, ODOT was "locked" into construction contracts and federal match requirements. And, those commitments are real-deal legal obligations. There is no way out of it. The state has to pay the money to the contractors.
So, when the "actual" federal revenue came in lower, they had to cover those commitments from the only flexible pot in their budget, which was maintenance (state only dollars).
And, that’s why plow routes, striping, and basic repairs took a hit. Not because money was lost, but because the model was wrong, and the money for big projects never came from the federal government.
This all landed on top of a maintenance budget that was already squeezed. Costs for asphalt, labor, and equipment have been rising for years, while Oregonians buy fewer gallons of gas every year. So the only part of the agency that relies solely on the gas tax (maintenance) was already under strain before the forecasting mistake pushed it over the edge.
A bad forecast is still a problem. It deserves accountability and real fixes. But it’s not a billion dollars evaporating into thin air, and it’s not proof that someone stole the road fund or hid it behind DEI budgets. It’s an outdated system that needs to be corrected so we aren’t having this same conversation again in two years.