Flip the States

01/27/2025

The number one thing I'm asked is 'what can I do?' Here's something you can do right now, this moment, to put Democrats in power. Donate to the 3 MN Special Elections. One seat will determine control in each chamber. Then, read on for how we got here in MN, needing to win specials to hold power...

So often, the races that need our attention we just don't hear about. Take for example, a special election happening right now in MN. This isn't a red herring: MN is in a one seat fight for control in both the State House and State Senate.

I know what you’re thinking. “Minnesota? Land of Tim Walz and his free school lunches, abortion access, and a safe space for all? That Minnesota?” Yep, that Minnesota, now at risk of losing the Democratic majority in both the MN State House & Senate. Why should you care if you don't live in MN? Because holding power in states is critical to fight the Trump agenda AND to show voters a better alternative. This is what will lead us back to power everywhere.

You won't believe the chaos that got us here, but if you're ready to help now, click to donate to the Democratic candidates trying to keep Minnesota’s legislature from going Republican.

WHAT WENT WRONG
Like Democrats in every state, Minnesotan candidates got hit by the 2024 Trump wave and unfortunately donors like us compounded the issue by putting money into the wrong races. MN incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar raised nearly $22M while her Republican challenger raised a mere $1.5M. That money plus money in other races, could have been better spent on down ballot races that were ultimately lost to Republicans. That’s why Flip the States exists - to help guide money to where it’s best invested.

Going into Election Day 2024, Minnesota Democrats held a slim majority in the House (70-64) while the State Senate was tied due to a vacancy. After the election, the House appeared to be tied while the Senate had a one-seat Democratic majority.

The drama did not end on Election Day….
If you’re following this closely, Minnesota is one big soap opera right now. To catch you up to speed:

- MN State House 54A: A tightly contested State House district in the southwestern Twin Cities suburbs actually did have some election day irregularities. Ballots were recounted multiple times. A few ballots in a heavily progressive ward were lost. The Democratic incumbent Rep. Brad Tabke still came out on top of the multiple recounts, even without the lost ballots, but Republicans filed a lawsuit seeking a nullification and a new special election. They were rebuffed by the court in early January but that has not stopped their efforts to deny this seat and push it to a special election in hopes of seizing control of the State House.

- MN State House 40B: Additionally, one other winning Democratic House candidate lost his seat shortly after the election because he didn’t actually reside in his district and the Court ruled him ineligible to serve. He decided not to run in the special election to fill the vacancy his screw-up created. This seat is now empty, awaiting a new special election.

- MN Senate District 60: The next day, the previous MN State Senate majority leader, who had not faced re-election in 2024, passed away after a long battle with cancer, leaving her seat vacant. A special election must now be held for her seat.
As of today, the Minnesota House sits at 67 Republicans and 66 Democrats, with one vacancy pending the House 40B special election. The Minnesota Senate is tied 33-33 with one vacancy pending the Senate 60 special election.

But wait, there’s more…
With their one seat majority while awaiting special elections, the Republican House Caucus refused to seat Rep. Tabke despite clear direction from the courts that he is a duly elected representative. In response, Democrats were sworn-in in secret by a judge at a nearby site, but then refused to show up in the House chamber on the opening day of the legislative session, denying the Republicans the 68 member quorum they needed to elect a Speaker of the House.

But Republicans tried to elect a Speaker anyway and got into a fight with the Minnesota Secretary of State.

They ended up in Court and the Minnesota Supreme Court recently unanimously sided with the Democrats. Minnesota’s Constitution requires 68 members present to do business, meaning either the House will do nothing until the special election happens or Democrats and Republicans will come to a power sharing agreement. Despite Rep. Tabke being sworn-in, Republicans are still standing in his way. If Democrats can achieve a special election victory in MN State House 40B, a tied House gives Democrats leverage to make sure Rep Tabke takes his seat, and to insist on power-sharing.

WHAT NOW? MN Dems need our support.

Minnesota Democrats need funding in three races:

(1) MN State House 54A: Rep. Brad Tabke still hasn’t been able to take his seat. His campaign needs money for legal bills and an almost certain competitive election in 2026.

(2) MN House 40B: Candidate David Gottfried needs your support to win, so the House will return to a 67-67 tie.

(3) MN Senate District 60: Candidate Doron Clark needs your support to help Democrats take back a one vote margin.

Best case scenario: Why Your Donations Here Matter
Minnesota isn’t going to have a trifecta of House - Senate - Governor in 2025, but with your help it could be a tied State House, with Democrats in control of the State Senate and Governor.

Minnesota gave us Tim Walz this year, when we most needed to see masculinity and politics redefined into something healthier and admirable. Let’s give Minnesota back the Democratic control it needs to stay a beacon of light in these dark national times.

With all the Trump appointments, more special elections are coming. But not all are winnable or difference-making like these ones. Stay tuned for more special election updates coming.
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01/21/2025

My name is Amber and I'm one of the founders of Flip the States. Every few days to week, we put out a free newsletter as we get ready for 2025, and we are going to start putting it out here too. Hope you enjoy and share....

I haven’t written since the election because, to be honest, I just didn’t know what to say before. I had utterly convinced myself she would win- as much because I couldn’t fathom four more years of Trump than anything else. And when she didn’t… well, like so many others, I just had to tune out. I completely shut it down. The news, the headlines, the podcasts, the emails and on and on.

I told myself I would come back when I was ready. But Jan came and I still couldn’t convince myself to submerge every day back into a constant state of outrage… Maybe I could act like so many Americans and just ignore it?

And then my young son came home from school to tell me he was studying the inauguration. He told me he learned it was a celebration and asked if we would celebrate. I asked him if he knew who our next President would be and he responded quickly- “I forget her name right now.” He didn’t even question that it could be a HER. “No,” I said, “she didn’t win.” He immediately knew, “Trump? How can that be?” And that was it. That was the reminder I needed for why I was in this fight.

I also knew this time had to be different. Like many of you, I had spent Trump’s first term learning to resist. Protests, phone calls, visits to my Senator and Representative. I had resisted with the best. But outrage and resistance alone hadn't beat MAGA.

We need to do more than resist. We need to build.

This is our mission now. To build power, to build governing majorities, to build a government that actually delivers solutions for us. When I say ‘we’ I of course mean ‘we’ here at Flip the States, but I also mean ‘we’ as in the community resistors that we all have become and the ‘we’ who will now be the power builders.

So this is the work. At Flip the States, I and we will be doing it every day. Resisting when we must, but building every day towards something better. Always building.

Here is our plan: to be ruthlessly focused on putting Democrats in power. At Flip the States, we won’t be conducting ideological screenings of candidates because this isn’t about purity, it's about power. We won’t be picking favorites in the primaries because it isn’t about perfect, it’s about winning. And we won’t be polling and predicting winners and losers like a horse race. This isn’t a game; it's our lives.

Instead, we will keep doing what we do best - using hard data about the electorate, the cost of a campaign, redistricting, chamber and positional power and more to determine which races are both winnable and will have the largest impact if won by Democrats. And we will ground ourselves in the same place we have always been: being community members in fly over country turned resistors turned power-builders.

Join us. Join us in our fight to take power. This is our plan:

- Special Elections: We already in process of identifying & ranking the upcoming special elections. Don’t waste your time and money on un-winnable races or on groups preying on our outrage to raise money for them. We'll have rankings soon so you can instead focus on where we can make an impact and win.

- 2025 & 2026 Elections: We are preparing the data now to release Impact Scores for the upcoming 2025 elections in NJ and VA and the 2026 midterms. Winning state majorities matters. Supporting state Democratic leaders to build a bench and to offer a real alternative to the Trump agenda matters. And, early 2026 money matters. It can beat back Republican challengers before they even get in a race. The time to build is now.

- Add our next 1000 members: The ‘we’ matters too and we need your help to do it. Thank you for already being with us. Now, please help us get the word out by asking 3 friends to sign up to Flip the States. We aren’t here to beg for money. We are here to be part of a community building Democratic power, which is why instead we share where your money goes farthest to help Democrats across the country and where it doesn’t.

Get regular race recommendations, tips on how to build governing majorities, where to spend time & money (& where not to) and more as we work together to put Dems back in power.

10/26/2024

👀 With less than 2 weeks to go, can your political donation still make a difference? The answer if YES, if you send it to the right campaign. 💳

Give your time to the presidential race and to the Senate candidates. Give your money to the handful of house races the can win back the US House for Democrats. Find all the info you need here: https://lnkd.in/gebjAA44

10/19/2024

How many political emails and txts asking for 💵 have you gotten this week? Overwhelmed? 😫 We are too!

These are our last few days to make a different in key races. Stop ignoring, and start searching.

We created Flip the States Search as a 2024 election cheat sheet. Our search gives you the ability to quickly search any state, race, chamber or candidate. Get an ask for a donation? Type their name or state and district in and you've got the info you need. Or simply search the state the candidate came from to see how that race ranks against others in the state. You've got a simple guide to the info you need to make your own decision about donating.

By donating to Flip the States, you're directly supporting our work - delivering ranked state and federal races by Impact Score