Flip the States

07/22/2026

Our Featured Race this week is the top of the list: Pennsylvania's 7th — the Lehigh Valley. Impact Score: 100. The most flippable House seat in America.

The numbers: Ryan Mackenzie won PA-7 in 2024 by just over 4,000 votes — thinner than a single Allentown ward. The district sits at R+1. Allentown, its anchor, went from 12% Latino in 1990 to roughly 54% today, and Pennsylvania's Latino eligible-voter population has more than doubled since 2000.

The record: the Valley's manufacturing and logistics jobs — Mack Trucks, Crayola, Martin Guitar — have grown 71% since 2010, three times the national rate. Those are exactly the jobs most exposed to the tariff agenda Mackenzie votes for 98% of the time. Steel tariffs that raise the cost of building a Mack truck, in the district that builds Mack trucks.

The behavior: no in-person town halls. Constituents hold "Mondays with Mackenzie" protests outside an office he doesn't appear at. When 400 people showed up to a People's Town Hall in Bethlehem, he counter-programmed a phone call with less than 24 hours' notice.

A 4,000-vote margin, a transforming electorate, and an incumbent in hiding. That's what a 100 looks like.

Full breakdown: flipthestates.com?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=featured-race-pa7

07/21/2026

Let's talk about the number making the rounds: after ten states enacted new congressional maps, Republicans are positioned to gain up to 16 seats from redistricting alone, versus about 6 for Democrats.

That's real, and it's serious. Gerrymandering raised the GOP's floor and lowered the Democratic ceiling. Anyone telling you otherwise isn't reading the maps.

But here's the rest of the math, which the alarm posts never get to. Democrats need a net gain of three seats for the majority. There are roughly 42 genuine battleground districts. A record 36 House Republicans are retiring — and open seats are the easiest seats to flip. Maryland's legislature convenes August 3 to consider a path that could counter with an 8-0 map. And the Q2 filings just showed which GOP incumbents are stockpiling war chests — a confession, in dollars, of which seats they know are in danger.

A harder map is not a closed map. It's an argument for precision: every dollar and volunteer hour has to land where it moves a seat, because the margin for waste is gone.

That's the entire reason our ranked list exists. flipthestates.com?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=redistricting-math

07/19/2026

Here's the deal with the Flip the States newsletter: one email a week. That's it.

What's in it: Impact Reports — deep-dive breakdowns of individual flippable House races, scored across 27 data points and 15-plus years of district-level results. Not a headline and a donate button: the incumbent's actual record, the district's real numbers, and exactly why the seat is winnable. Recent reports covered PA-7 and PA-8, two of the most flippable districts in the country.

And alongside them: Get Out of Your Bubble. There's plenty of outrage out there already — we're not adding to it. Instead, it's the tips, tools, insights, sources, and stories that actually help us understand how to win this November. Not just rage. How to win.

If a race gets more winnable, you'll read why — with receipts. If something changed this week, you'll know what it means, not just how to feel about it.

One email. Once a week. Signup takes about ten seconds: flipthestates.com?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=newsletter-jul19

07/17/2026

The Q2 fundraising numbers are in — every House campaign filed with the FEC this week — and there's one pattern worth your attention.

Of the 32 Republican incumbents on Democrats' target list, 25 raised more than $700,000 last quarter. Ten cleared $1 million, including Young Kim, Mike Lawler, and Ken Calvert. Meanwhile, of the 25 Democrats on the GOP's target list, only one — Eugene Vindman — cleared $1 million.

Here's how to read that: money follows fear. Incumbents don't stockpile seven-figure war chests in seats they consider safe. Those totals are Republicans telling you, in dollars, exactly which seats they know are in danger.

Our model flagged those districts months ago — not from fundraising reports, but from 27 data points and decades of district-level results. When the money map and the data map agree, that's confirmation. And it's also the argument for giving early: a war chest built now gets spent defining the race before most donors tune in. Countering it in late October costs three times as much.

The full ranked list of where those dollars actually flip seats is at flipthestates.com?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=fec-q2-results

06/26/2026

How many cattle does it take to make Gabe Evans a rancher?

He bought 3 longhorn cattle and called himself a rancher.
His beef operation made $1,709 last year.
Meet your congressman CO-8: Fake Gabe Evans

https://coloradotimesrecorder.com/2026/06/evans-again-promotes-himself-as-a-beef-producer-but-he-still-sells-little-or-no-beef/79459/ Paid for by Flip the States, not authorized by any candidate or candidate committee.

05/25/2026

There is a reason political strategists talk about the summer fundraising window like it is a different kind of money.

Right now, the primary in Colorado's 8th District — one of the highest-Impact Score races in the country — is June 30. Iowa's 1st, Pennsylvania's 8th, and other top-tier targets are setting their nominees through the summer. The general election campaign infrastructure is being built right now: staff hired, field offices opened, early ad contracts signed.

Dollars given before a nominee is set — or in the weeks immediately after — go further than dollars given in October. There is no competition with national buys. No inflated media rates. No consultants who have already been retained by bigger campaigns.

This is the window. And it closes fast.

Thanks to you, we've hit our recent $25K goal. Now, The Flip the States Take the House Fund is moving toward $100,000. We're targeting races with 90+ Impact Score — meaning a data-backed strategy focused on going after Republican incumbents while they're being ignored by the party, but are most vulnerable - ie NOW.

If you have been meaning to act on the data, this is the moment where early action produces the most leverage.

Donate now at FliptheStates.com.

05/24/2026

FliptheStates.com
There is a version of political giving that feels right. And there is a version that works.

The version that feels right is sending $50 to the Senate candidate who gave the best floor speech, or the challenger who took on the most powerful Republican in the chamber, or the progressive running in a red state because someone has to.

The version that works is pulling up a database, finding the House race with a 92 Impact Score in a suburban district where Democrats have been underinvesting, and routing money there — even if you have never heard of the candidate and they will never go viral. This is the strategic play.

This is the core tension in Democratic political giving, and it does not resolve itself emotionally. The candidate who deserves to win is not always the candidate whose win builds a majority. The race that makes you feel something is not always the race that flips a seat.

The principle behind Flip the States is simple: majorities are built with math, not feelings. Every dollar should be evaluated by one question before it moves — does winning this race flip a seat and build Democratic governing power? If yes: give.

If no: walk away — no matter how the fundraising email makes you feel.

That is not cynicism. That is how you end up on the right side of a Dem majority 220-215 and the first true limits on Trump. FliptheStates.com

05/23/2026

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has one job: elect Democrats to the House and win the majority.
In 2024, our algorithm outperformed them.

On identifying competitive races: Flip the States flagged 25. The DCCC flagged 17.

On targeted investment races: Flip the States identified 21. The DCCC identified 9.

On seats that actually flipped: Flip the States predicted 12. The DCCC predicted 8.

This isn't about criticizing the DCCC. It's a proof of concept. The data-driven approach to identifying winnable races works — and it works better than the institutional approach that's been losing us majorities for years.

If an independent nonprofit with a fraction of the resources can outperform the party's own electoral committee, imagine what happens when donors start directing their money accordingly.
That's what we're building. We need your help to scale it.

We rank every race for Dems to win in 2025 and 2026.

05/09/2026

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has one job: elect Democrats to the House and win the majority. In 2024, our algorithm outperformed them.

On identifying competitive races: Flip the States flagged 25. The DCCC flagged 17.
On targeted investment races: Flip the States identified 21. The DCCC identified 9.
On seats that actually flipped: Flip the States predicted 12. The DCCC predicted 8.

This isn't about criticizing the DCCC for its own sake. It's a proof of concept. The data-driven approach to identifying winnable races works — and it works better than the institutional approach that's been losing us majorities for years.

If an independent nonprofit with a fraction of the resources can outperform the party's own electoral committee, imagine what happens when donors start directing their money accordingly.

That's what we're building. We need your help to scale it. FliptheStates.com

05/06/2026

Let's talk about how we actually pick which races matter — because it's not what you think.

Most people choose where to donate based on which candidate they've heard of, which race is in the news, or which congressman makes them the angriest. That's how $94 million ends up in Kentucky for a race that was never going to be close.

Our Impact Score is different. It's a custom algorithm that analyzes every race in America using 27 data points: incumbency, chamber control, historical vote trends, how close the last race was, the typical cost to win, and how far a dollar goes in that district.

The result is a number between 1 and 100 that answers two questions at once: Can a Democrat win here? And does winning here actually build Democratic power?

The accuracy speaks for itself. Races scored 90–100 — the true opportunity races — produced 5 flipped seats in 2024. Our algorithm correctly identified 9 of the 14 races that actually flipped. Races scored 0–70? Democrats spent 70% of their money there in 2024. Zero seats flipped. The math isn't complicated. The follow-through is.
See the scores and start donating differently: FliptheStates.com

Sign up for our newsletter to get our Impact Reports and learn how we plan to use our data-driven strategy to Flip the House: https://flipthestates.com/subscribers/add/