08/27/2026
"Will it be a big winter?" We get that question a lot, and it feels more pressing than ever after our most recent dismal winter. Stop by our outreach booth at the Farmer's Market this Sunday to talk shop! In the meantime, here's a small dive into the winter outlook.
Long-range forecasts are fraught with limitations, and we don't put much weight on a storm or weather pattern outside the 5-10 day window. That said, an extreme El Niño is projected to develop this winter - likely the strongest on record (Images 2 and 3). Historically, very strong El Niños tend to cause a high-pressure anomaly over Canada, with a Pacific storm track that more often steers across the Southwest (Image 4). Long-range models largely rely on this general pattern for their winter outlooks: the Elk Mountains sit neither in the bullseye nor off the board for favored precipitation. For example, NOAA's winter outlook shows chances leaning above average for precipitation (Image 5), while the Euro model projects drier-than-average snowfall for Central Colorado (Image 6). Looking back at our most recent analogous years with very strong El Niños, Gothic saw bountiful snow in '82-83 and '97-98, while more recently, '15-16 and '23-24 were a bust (Image 7).
One thing you can bet on: once the snow starts stacking up, shallow or deep, CBAC will be out there every day keeping you informed on local avalanche conditions. ❄❄❄🤞
