02/27/2026
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A new series of analyses from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) commemorates four years of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The analyses show how the war has reshaped global security, strained both countries’ economies, and destabilized food systems far beyond Eastern Europe.
While Russia initially weathered Western sanctions more effectively than expected, CSIS concludes that the country’s long‑term trajectory is deteriorating. As one report puts it, “Russia’s economy is increasingly showing signs of strain, and long-term productivity looks bleak.” The Kremlin has relied heavily on domestic borrowing and tax increases to finance the war, while devoting roughly half its federal budget to the armed forces, internal security, the military‑industrial complex, and debt servicing. Despite high industrial output driven by wartime demand, the report notes that the war has produced “few lasting assets or productivity gains,” leaving Russia further behind advanced economies in technology and innovation.
Meanwhile, the war’s economic and humanitarian consequences have extended far beyond the front lines. Ukraine’s agricultural sector — long a cornerstone of global grain markets — has been devastated by occupation, landmines, destroyed irrigation systems, and repeated strikes on grain infrastructure. The cumulative impact of these disruptions, according to CSIS, has been widely misunderstood. According to the analysis, “Ukraine’s 2025 exports of corn, barley, wheat, and meslin … were 35% lower than 2020, the last year [when] harvest was unaffected by Russia’s full-scale invasion.”
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