12/10/2025
We are about to go through an interesting change in the politics of Virginia in January. I thought it would be interesting to get some comparative data. I asked Grok to give me the overall position on 7 key state economic indicators at the beginning and end of Governor Youngkin's term. A fair way to judge his economic success. Then I asked for beginning numbers for the incoming governor. I will come back at the end of her term and pull the same data. I make no projection. I want to see how it turns out. Here is what Grok provided me. Youngkin first.
Virginia Key Economic Indicators: Start vs. Current End of Governor Glenn Youngkin’s Term(January 15, 2022 – present; data through Nov 2025 where available)
Real Gross State Product Growth
+3.8% (2021 annual)
+1.7% (first half 2025)
Growth has slowed dramatically; 2024 was +2.9%, 2025 forecast now ~1–1.5% for full year
Unemployment Rate
3.2% (Jan 2022)
3.6% (Aug 2025)
+0.4 pp; lowest point was 2.6% in late 2023; now rising modestly
Nonfarm Payroll Jobs
4.03 million (Jan 2022)
~4.46 million (Aug 2025)
+430,000 net jobs added over term (+10.7%); strong early recovery, but only +7,200 in Aug 2025
Labor Force Participation Rate
63.9% (Jan 2022)
66.8% (2025 average)
Significant improvement—one of the biggest gains nationally
Median Household Income
$81,947 (2021 ACS)
~$93,275 (2025 est.)
+~$11,300 (+13.8%); Virginia moved from ~10th to ~7th highest nationally
General Fund Revenues (FY)
$27.7 billion collected FY2022
$30.6 billion collected FY2025
+$2.9 billion (+10.5%) despite economic slowdown
Rainy Day + Cash Reserves
~$3.3 billion (end FY2022)
~$4.2 billion statutory minimum only
Reserves now at statutory floor after 2024–2025 spending increases and revenue softening
Consumer Sentiment (VA Index)
82–85 range (Q1 2022)
65.8 (Nov 2025)
Sharp decline in 2025 reflecting inflation, federal cuts, and housing-cost worries
Housing Price Appreciation
+17.8% YoY (Q1 2022 – post-COVID surge)
+4.5% YoY (Q3 2025)
Boom cooled significantly; Northern VA prices still up ~45% since Jan 2022 but new permits down 14% YoY
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2026 Beginning State-Specific Economic Indicators for Virginia
A) Gross State Product (GSP) Growth
B) +1.7% (real growth, first half of 2025)
C) Virginia's growth ranks 34th nationally, down sharply from 6.2% in 2024; nominal GSP estimated at $764.5 billion for full 2025. Sectors like tech and trade show resilience, but federal cuts are dragging. Forecast: Positive but slowing to ~1-2% through 2026.
A) Unemployment Rate
B) 3.6% (seasonally adjusted, Aug 2025)
C) Below national average (4.1%); steady from July but up from 2.9% YoY. Labor force: 4.55 million; employed: 4.38 million. Forecast: Rising to 4.1% by year-end due to job losses in government and construction.
A) Nonfarm Payroll Employment Growth
B) +7,200 jobs (+0.2%) in Aug 2025
C) Gains led by health/education (+4,600) and services (+3,100); offset by government losses (-2,100). Cumulative growth 2013-2023: +11.2% (20th nationally). Forecast: Contraction later in 2025.
A) Median Household Income
B) $93,275 (2025 estimate)
C) Ranks 17th nationally; strong for bottom 20% earners ($19,293, 4th highest). Up from ~$89,864 in 2023, driven by wage gains in tech/defense.
A) State Budget (General Fund)
B) $34.4 billion (FY2025 enacted, amended)
C) Total operating budget: $92.6 billion; revenues up 4.1% YoY to $30.6 billion. Reserves at 15% statutory minimum ($4.2 billion projected for FY2026). Recent surpluses eroding due to inflation and federal policy shifts; outlook "skewed to the downside."
A) Consumer Sentiment Index
B) 65.8 (Nov 2025)
C) Unchanged from Aug; above national average, signaling stable but cautious optimism amid rising costs.
A) Housing Market (Home Value Appreciation)
B) +4.5% YoY (Q3 2025)
C) Median home values up 0.4% QoQ; new permits down 14.2% YoY, indicating cooling demand. Affordability challenges persist in Northern VA.
Virginia Key Economic Indicators: Start vs. Current End of Governor Glenn Youngkin’s Term(January 15, 2022 – present; data through Nov 2025 where available)
Real Gross State Product Growth
+3.8% (2021 annual)
+1.7% (first half 2025)
Growth has slowed dramatically; 2024 was +2.9%, 2025 forecast now ~1–1.5% for full year
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